The 2025 NFL Playoffs are here, and not a moment too soon as Super Wild Card Weekend kicks off.
Saturday brings us two AFC games, featuring three of the four teams we just saw in prime island spots on Christmas and the Saturday before.
We'll go through both games in order, starting with some big picture thoughts and game analysis, how to bet a side, and then props and other angles I'm playing. I've got multiple bets on each playoff game this weekend, so let's dig in to my Chargers vs. Texans and Steelers vs. Ravens predictions and NFL Wild Card picks.
NFL Predictions: Saturday Wild Card Picks
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Chargers vs. Texans
Chargers LIVE Moneyline (only at plus money) & Under 42.5 (-110)
Game Analysis
Isn't this just the perfect way to kick off our early Saturday afternoon Wild Card Weekend? I'm not sure if the Texans or Chargers scream sleepy Saturday playoff kickoff more, but we're getting both of them.
It could indeed be a sleepy game, especially since both defenses appear to have the advantage. That's especially true in the passing game, where both pass defenses have been outstanding.
Each team can be vulnerable against the run at times, especially the Chargers, but neither has had much success running the ball this season.
These offenses rely on the pass, and both pass defenses will be up to the task. Houston ranks near the top of the league in most defensive metrics.
The Chargers have slipped a bit but match up well. L.A. ranks No. 1 by DVOA against passes to the right, where C.J. Stroud skews heavily. The Chargers are also top five against WR1s but bottom five against WR2s, the perfect fit for a Texans WR corps down to the outstanding Nico Collins and basically no one else after injuries to Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell.
L.A. has also been far better on the road defensively, ranking No. 2 by DVOA, matching Jim Harbaugh's conservative mindset to shut things down, defend hard and play old-school road football.
Compare that to No. 24 at home, where L.A.'s defense has struggled. Houston's defense has been the best in the league at home.
This one looks low scoring, defensive and tight.
How to Bet a Side
I'm not betting a side before the game, but I'll be looking to bet Chargers moneyline live.
My numbers slightly prefer Houston +3, but I just don't trust them because the Chargers have a few key advantages.
First is coaching. Jim Harbaugh has been here before and won big games at every level, a clear step above DeMeco Ryans — though both coaches skew too conservative at times.
Houston has been a great starter all season at 13-4 against the spread (ATS) in the first half, with Bobby Slowik's offense best on that early script. But the Chargers have been almost as strong early and don't fade nearly as much as the Texans, who are 4-13 ATS after halftime. If L.A. hangs with Houston early, that could spell trouble for the Texans late.
Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater are also a big advantage for the Chargers. Those bookend tackles are about as good as any pair — the perfect antidote to Houston's biggest strength, Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter rushing the passer off the edge.
That should give Justin Herbert time to throw, and he's the reason I ultimately prefer the Chargers. While C.J. Stroud has regressed as a sophomore, Herbert has played his best football down the stretch.
Houston's defense is beatable on third downs, where Herbert is great, so the Texans could struggle to get off the field. And unlike with the Chargers defense, Houston's pass defense sets up poorly in this game.
The Texans are No. 1 by DVOA against throws to left side of the field, but No. 27 against throws to the right — Herbert throws to the right more than any QB in the league.
I trust Herbert over Stroud, and that means the Chargers have the edge at QB, in the trenches and head coach. In the playoffs, that's enough for me to go against the numbers and look to bet the Chargers moneyline live at a plus number if Houston finds some offense early.
Pick: Chargers live moneyline at plus odds
Props and Other Angles
My best bet in this game is under 42.5 (-110, Caesars).
These teams are a combined 20-14 to the under on the season. Chargers games finished at 44 points or fewer in 11 of 17 games, and Texans games did so in 10 of 17.
Chargers games have been much lower scoring on the road this season, with L.A.'s defense better away from SoFi Stadium and its offense worse. Chargers games average about 46 PPG in L.A. but only 37 PPG on the road. Jim Harbaugh games with a total below 44 are 56% to the under for his career.
This is a bet against both offenses, neither of which are particularly explosive or trustworthy against top defenses like this.
Both Houston and L.A. rank top 12 by DVOA defensively for the season. Houston's offense averaged just 16 PPG against top-12 DVOA defenses, and the Chargers averaged only 19.5 PPG. The two offenses combined to face top-12 defenses 12 times and only topped 23 points once combined.
I grabbed under 44.5 on the Hot Read on Sunday night, but I still like the under at 42.5.
Pick: Under 42.5 (-110; Caesars)
Steelers vs. Ravens
Ravens -9.5 (-110) & Derrick Henry First TD (+350)
Game Analysis
Football fans know this matchup all too well, and bettors typically know exactly what to do in Steelers–Ravens matchups: You always take the under, and you always want the underdog, especially as 'dogs of a field goal or more.
Nine straight matchups between these teams had finished within one score until Baltimore blew Pittsburgh out a few weeks ago, and the last six matchups before that one had finished at 34 points or fewer.
The key question for this game is whether all those Rah Rah Mike Tomlin trends fit in the postseason — and I'm not sure this is a Rah Rah spot.
I love to play a good Rah Rah underdog spot — we just hit one last week on Steelers +2.5! — but this does not fit the usual underdog trend spot, even if it were in the regular season.
That Rah Rah underdog trend is better when Pittsburgh is playing at home, better after losing by a least a touchdown, and better as an underdog of a TD or less — 0-for-3 here. Tomlin is 3-14 straight up as an underdog of seven or more.
There is a chasm between these teams right now.
Pittsburgh's offense is limping into the playoffs with 17 or fewer points in four straight and less than 20 points in six of its last eight. The Steelers offense faced a top-12 DVOA defense six times this season and never topped 20 points, averaging 15.2 PPG. That's why Pittsburgh's team total is 16.5.
The Steelers haven't found consistent ways of moving the ball, especially now that George Pickens has gone MIA down the stretch. And Baltimore's defense has really found its form since moving Marlon Humphrey into the slot and Kyle Hamilton to more full-time safety. The Ravens have the No. 2 defense by DVOA from Week 9 forward and have been excellent at home all season.
It's going to be awfully hard to beat Baltimore if you can't hit 20 points — especially since the Ravens have the best offense in football. Baltimore ranks first in DVOA both rushing and passing on the season, with historically great numbers, and the offense is battle tested and proven.
Baltimore's elite offense has already played eight times against a top-12 defense. It scored at least 30 points in five of them and averaged 28.3 PPG, almost double Pittsburgh in that spot. The Ravens have seven wins already against playoff teams, all seven of them relatively comfortable.
The Steelers have been at their worst this season in the first quarter, and Baltimore's defense is best early and the team has always been excellent in the first half with John Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson.
It's easy to see this getting away from the Steelers quickly, and if it does, it could get ugly.
How to Bet a Side
I'm on the Ravens. If you like Baltimore to cover the -9.5, I think you have to be aggressive. Personally, I'm playing a Ravens escalator and looking for a possible blowout.
The trends and models will tell you to back the Steelers at such a long number — mine do too! — but at some point, you just have to trust what your eyes are seeing and know that the postseason is a different animal.
The Ravens are voracious and have legitimate Super Bowl hopes, and the Steelers look like their season already ended a month ago. Teams like that often let go of the rope once there's clearly no more tomorrow.
Lamar Jackson is 69% ATS in his career against teams above .500, and he's 12-3 ATS in the regular season in games 40 degrees and below, so the weather shouldn't be a problem.
Baltimore just blew out Pittsburgh a month ago. In Wild Card Round rematches, home teams that won the last matchup by 14+ points are 11-4 ATS (73%). Home favorites of 9+ points this round are 10-1 ATS over the last two decades, with an average winning margin of 17.1 PPG and a median win of 17.5.
When we know what we know and even books admit it, it's often just as ugly as everyone expects.
Baltimore has wins this season by 17, 21, 25, 25, 29 and 31 — four of those against playoff teams, one of them Pittsburgh. The Steelers have lost five straight playoff games under Tomlin, failing to cover in all of them, with the average margin of defeat 13.6 PPG. Tomlin keeps dragging subpar rosters to the playoffs, but it's not ending well once he gets there.
Everyone gets excited for Super Wild Card Weekend, but the reality is that we're seeing a ton of blowouts this round.
Over the past three postseasons, 11 of 18 games this round have been decided by 14 or more points. Only three (one per season!) finished under seven points, and one of those was at six. The average margin of victory this round is at 14.4 PPG the last three years, with a median difference of 16 points and five of 18 games — just under a third of them — at 21+ differential.
That's a small sample, but it sure looks like playoff expansion is letting worse teams into the field while the early rounds show an even bigger gap between the haves and the have nots.
If you like Ravens -9.5, you should bet Baltimore even more aggressively. I'll split my bet on Ravens -9.5 (-110; FanDuel) and Ravens -15.5 (+190; bet365), and then let's take the Baltimore escalator.
Sprinkle a portion of your bet on Ravens -20.5 (+342; bet365) and Ravens -27.5 (+800 FanDuel) and take the Ravens escalator all the way to the top in case this ends ugly for Pittsburgh yet again.
Picks: Ravens -9.5 (-110; FanDuel); Ravens spread escalator -15.5 (+190; bet365), -20.5 (+342; bet365), -27.5 (+800; FanDuel)
Props and Other Angles
The Ravens are excellent front-runners, and Derrick Henry has been a great front runner his entire career. He has 100 rushing yards and two scores in over a quarter of his wins in his career. That's been a profitable angle but is only +378 here, so I'm pivoting to Henry to score the first touchdown at +350 (Caesars).
If we barely expect Pittsburgh to score at all and Baltimore to start hot, that means value on Ravens players for the First TD market. Henry scored the game's first touchdown seven times this season, two more than anyone else in the NFL, and nearly half of all Baltimore games.
If you like, you can parlay Henry first TD and Ravens -15.5 at +824.
If you like Baltimore to make a postseason run, you should also consider backing Henry beyond this game. He's scored a touchdown in 13 of 17 Ravens games and could get a few more chances.
Henry is +360 to rush for at least three TDs this postseason at FanDuel (under Playoff Milestones), a number he could hit in even two games with a likely matchup against Buffalo next round that he dominated earlier this season. You should also play Henry +2200 for 5+ rushing TDs (FanDuel) as an obvious escalator.
Picks: Derrick Henry First TD (+350; Caesars) | Henry 3+ and 5+ rushing TDs in postseason (+360 and +2200 FanDuel)
