Super Wild Card Weekend continues Sunday as we kick off the 2025 NFL playoffs.
We start the day by wrapping up the AFC, then turn our attention to a pair of intriguing NFC games, including the game of the weekend between the Eagles and Packers.
We'll go through all three games in order, beginning with big-picture thoughts and game analysis, then how to bet a side, and finishing up with props and other angles I'm playing.
I've got multiple bets on each playoff game so let's dig in.
NFL Predictions: Sunday Wild Card Picks
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Broncos vs. Bills
Broncos vs. Bills Preview
I'm just going to call it as I see it — this game looks like a mismatch in every way. Denver is fraudulent and not just lucky to back its way into the playoffs after losing two win-and-in games, but lucking into the Chiefs on holiday. Even then, the Broncos only got in because of the recently expanded playoffs.
Denver has just one true win over a playoff team. That was early this season against the Bucs, before anyone thought they were a playoff team — and no, the Chiefs in Week 18 don't count. The Broncos were 1-6 against teams with 10+ wins this season.
Denver's offense is the weakest unit on the field, by far. Bo Nix had nice enough moments checking it down much of the season with a lead against bad opponents, but playing off script, on the road, trying to match score-for-score with Josh Allen is something else entirely. Nix has been far worse this season playing from behind, is much more inefficient and with a vastly superior turnover rate.
The offense averaged just 15.5 PPG this season against a top-12 DVOA defense, like Buffalo's.
I'm not sold that the Broncos defense is among the very best in the league either. Vance Joseph's unit has been great at protecting leads when Joseph can bring his typical pressure and get after the many bad quarterbacks around the league, but the occasional good QBs have dismantled this defense.
Denver has the No. 1 defense by DVOA in the second half, when it's often protecting a lead, but ranks outside the top 10 in the first half. The Broncos defense had faded to just barely above league-average by DVOA over the final six weeks of the season before the farcical Chiefs game, average against both the run and the pass.
The Broncos are a top-five offense on early downs but pedestrian on third downs, and that's where elite quarterbacks like Josh Allen can carve this unit up.
Denver feasted on a soft schedule of bad-or-worse offenses. The Broncos only faced a top-12 offense five times all season, and they allowed 28.8 PPG in those games, including games of 30, 34, and 41 points allowed. Good quarterbacks cooked this defense.
The Broncos are finally back in the postseason for the first time in almost a decade, but I think Buffalo exposes this team as fraudulent.
Broncos vs. Bills Spread Analysis
Bills -8.5 (-108)
If you can't tell, I'm on the Bills.
I bet Buffalo -7.5 at open and still love Bills -8.5 (-108 DraftKings), and I'm betting the Bills aggressively on an escalator in what could be a blowout.
Home favorites of 9+ points are 10-1 ATS in the Wild Card Round, with an average win of over 17 PPG and a median win of 17.5 points. That's where this line likely closes, for teaser protection.
The Wild Card Round has been home to many big margins in recent years. Over the past three postseasons, 11 of 18 games this round have finished with a margin of 14 or higher, with a median point differential of 16 points and an average margin of victory of 14.4 PPG.
The expanded playoff field has only increased the gap between the haves and the have-nots. Only one 7-seed ever has even won a game in the NFL playoffs; they're 1-8 straight up and usually lose by a couple of scores.
Experience should also be a factor. Home Wild Card Round teams that made the playoffs last year facing a team that did not, like Denver, are 22-10-1 ATS (69%) over the past two decades. Since 2002, quarterbacks with postseason experience facing a debut playoff QB like Nix are 37-19-1 ATS (66%).
This game has serious blowout potential.
Grab Bills -8.5, but don't stop there. If Buffalo wins big, this game could be an avalanche.
Play Bills -15.5 (+215) and -23.5 (+520) at bet365, and you can go as far as Bills -31.5 at +1300 at FanDuel if you want to get crazy.
Picks: Bills -8.5 (-108; DraftKings) | Bills escalator -15.5 (+215; bet365), -23.5 (+520; bet365), -31.5 (+1300; FanDuel)
Broncos vs. Bills Prop Picks
Javonte Williams 30+ Receiving Yards (+320) + Escalators
If the Bills do lead for much of this game, Denver will be playing from behind and forced to pass a lot.
Buffalo allowed the most receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns to opposing running backs this season. The Bills play zone-heavy defense designed to limit big plays and that often means checkdowns to opposing backs. Buffalo allowed at least four receptions to 10 RBs, and it allowed six RBs to catch at least 50 yards.
The question, then, is which Denver runner to target: veteran Javonte Williams, the smaller Jaleel McLaughlin, or the rookie getting most of the carries lately, Audric Estime.
I'm going with Williams, and it's because of his pass blocking. Williams has a 68 pass block grade at PFF, compared to just 53 for the rookie and an ugly 27 for McLaughlin. Williams hasn't been an effective runner and has seen his run snaps plummet in recent weeks, but he's holding steady around 25 passing snaps a game. Denver will want him out there on passing downs, protecting Nix and bringing his experience.
Javonte Williams has at least two catches in all but two games, even as his role has dwindled. He has at least 23 yards receiving in half of his games and at least 28 in seven of them, and he got to 48, 50, and 50 in his high games this season.
I don't need a median outcome here in case I'm reading the RB room wrong, but I'll sprinkle Williams to have 30+ receiving yards at +320 and 50+ receiving yards at +1200 (both at bet365).
Picks: Javonte Williams 30+ (+320) and 50+ (+1200) receiving yards (bet365)
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Packers vs. Eagles
Packers vs. Eagles Preview
This is the game I'm most interested in this weekend by a wide margin — but it's also the one I'm most uncertain of.
It starts with the health of both star quarterbacks.
Jalen Hurts has been cleared from concussion protocol and should be a full go, but he hasn't played in a few weeks and history suggests he has struggled to shake off the rust returning from past injuries. Jordan Love is off the injury report too, but an elbow injury that appears to cause loss of feeling in his throwing hand is worrisome, the sort of injury that could pop up again at any time.
That makes this game very tricky to invest in since an appearance by Tanner McKee or Malik Willis would drastically change the outlook for not just this game, but the entire NFC playoff picture.
These might be the two best, most complete and well-rounded teams in the NFC playoffs. With apologies to the Lions and Vikings, these teams offer the most complete package of both offense and defense, without many flaws — and that's why I recommend both Eagles and Packers futures this week. We'll get back to that in a second.
The Eagles are favored because they're home and won their big games this season, going 5-2 against playoff opponents while the Packers were 2-5. But Green Bay's five losses included a close one to Philly, a pair of two-point losses to Minnesota, and a walk-off field goal loss to Detroit. When you play the best teams in your conference to a coin flip decision, that's good signal for the Packers, not bad.
The Eagles played a bottom-five schedule this season, including the softest defensive schedule, by DVOA. The Packers played the second toughest and still posted outstanding metrics on both offense and defense, and their offense was also low variance, consistently good against even tough competition.
Green Bay's defense still needs to answer some questions. The Packers rank fourth in turnovers forced but the Eagles turn it over the sixth fewest, so what happens when Green Bay can't drum up its big plays defensively? The Packers have proven very beatable over the middle of the field, but Hurts is not good at attacking that area.
Believe it or not, the weakest unit on the field might actually be the Eagles offense — specifically Philadelphia's passing attack. Hurts has been inconsistent as a passer, and Philadelphia's offense skews very run-heavy but the run game is more inefficient than passing.
There's much to learn from this game — and the winner might be the best team left in the NFC.
Packers vs. Eagles Spread Analysis
I won't be betting a side or total here. This is more of a watch-and-learn game for me with so many unknowns. I'd rather play a handful of props.
If I had to play a side, I'd lean Packers on the moneyline at +210 (BetMGM). Green Bay is just too good to be more than a 2-to-1 underdog against any team in the NFL, so that number is simply too high.
But because I'm so high on both of these teams relative to the rest of the NFC, I'm going to like whichever team emerges here going forward in the conference. That means I'd rather invest in futures than play a one-off side.
If you like the Eagles to win, invest in Eagles to win the NFC at +350 (BetMGM). I make that closer to +225, and that number drops precipitously once Philadelphia beats the Packers.
If you like the Packers, Green Bay has a real chance to make a run if the Packers beat arguably the best team in the NFC here. I like Jordan Love as a +3600 Super Bowl MVP long shot (FanDuel) with the Packers set up to go on a real run if they can pull off this first upset.
Futures pick: If you like a side, invest in futures instead like Eagles NFC (+350; BetMGM) or Jordan Love Super Bowl MVP (+3600; FanDuel)
Packers vs. Eagles Props
Saquon Barkley & DeVonta Smith Overs
I prefer to play props on this game, and I'm looking at receiving yards over for three players.
Let's start with Saquon Barkley. The Packers allowed the second most RB receptions this season, and this is where opponents can attack the middle of the field. Barkley had at least two catches in 12 of 16 games if you want the over 1.5 receptions, but I don't like playing bets with -170 juice.
I'd rather play yards, especially since Barkley is so explosive that he can pick up a chunk of yards even on one catch. Barkley has at least nine receiving yards in 11 of 16 games, at least 21 six times, and 40+ yards in three games. Play Barkley over 11.5 receiving yards (-110 bet365) and an escalator of 20+ yards at +210 and 40+ yards at +850 (both bet365).
Pick: Saquon Barkley over 11.5 receiving yards (-110) and escalator 20+ yards (+210) and 40+ yards (+850) all at bet365
Hope you like zone defense, because we're going to get a ton of it from both teams in this game. That's another reason to be concerned for the Eagles, since Jalen Hurts ranks third in EPA per play against man coverage but 22nd against zone, while Jordan Love ranks 31st and fifth, respectively.
A.J. Brown is the best man-beater in the league, but DeVonta Smith is Philly's better zone target because of his route-running precision. He caught 42 of 49 targets against zone this season, per PFF, versus 33 of 48 for A.J. Brown — one more target and 86 versus 69% catch rate.
Smith led the Eagles in receptions against the Packers in the season opener, with seven catches for 84 yards. He's had at least six catches in seven of 13 games so that puts over 5.5 receptions in play. But in those games with 6+ catches, Smith also averages 86 yards a game, with at least 76 in all but one, so play Smith's over 59.5 receiving yards (-110 bet365). That leaves much more margin for error, and he hit that in two games even going under 5.5 catches.
Pick: DeVonta Smith over 59.5 receiving yards (-110; bet365)
Jayden Reed Over 43.5 Receiving Yards
Green Bay's zone buster is Jayden Reed. He had only nine catches all season against man coverage and had an awful 43 PFF grade, versus 82 against the zone, where he had 41 catches for 705 yards. That includes a very nice game against the Eagles when he caught four balls for 134 yards and a score.
Philadelphia ranks bottom 10 by DVOA against opposing WR1, and with Christian Watson out and a heavy zone scheme, Reed is Green Bay's WR1 in this game. Play Jayden Reed over 43.5 yards (-110 bet365).
Pick: Jayden Reed over 43.5 receiving yards (-110; bet365)
If you like all three receiving overs, you can parlay the trio at +495 at DraftKings.
There's a good chance one of this trio leads the game in receiving yards, so I prefer playing that angle as an escalator. You can bet on DeVonta Smith to lead the game in receiving yards at +380, Jayden Reed at +750, and Saquon Barkley at an insane +14000 price, all at FanDuel.
If you bet all three of those, you're basically investing in a +200 ticket on one of the three to lead the game in receiving, thanks largely to the presence of A.J. Brown. I would put that DeVonta-Reed-Saquon ticket closer to -200 for this game, so I'm seeing tremendous value.
Pick: DeVonta Smith (+380), Jayden Reed (+750), or Saquon Barkley (+14000) to lead the game in receiving yards (FanDuel)
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Commanders vs. Buccaneers
Commanders vs. Bucs Preview
This one should be a fun, competitive matchup between two pretty evenly-matched teams, and it shapes up as the highest-scoring game of the weekend with a total of over 50.
These might be the two most surprising offenses of the season, ranked sixth and seventh by DVOA, and that's why both these teams are in the playoffs. It's certainly not because of the defenses, which are both pretty bad and could turn this into a shootout. Both defenses are trending up a bit closer to the league average over the past six weeks, though we'll see how that looks against top competition.
Both defenses are especially poor against the pass, so get ready for fireworks in what could be a very back-and-forth game. Washington has been best early in games, 10-7 ATS in the first half with a top-10 defense by first-half DVOA compared to the bottom three in the second half. The Bucs are just the opposite at 13-4 ATS in the second half with a top-10 defense there but bottom five in the first half.
Tampa Bay has a top-five offense in the first quarter but a bottom-five defense in the second quarter, while Washington is top-five offensively in the second quarter. Both teams rank top five on offense in the final stanza.
That could mean a really fun, back-and-forth shootout, and it means live bettors may just be able to play both sides as moneyline underdogs and then get out and enjoy the game with a locked-in profit.
These were both high-variance teams this season, which is what happens when your quarterback is Baker Mayfield or a rookie Jayden Daniels. That means plenty of upside for big plays but also a wide range of possible outcomes.
Commanders vs. Bucs Spread Analysis
Bucs -3 (-105)
The injury report here is advantage Bucs.
Antoine Winfield is back, and that's huge for a pass defense that's been devastated by injury, especially at safety. Washington is also seeing limited practice for offensive linemen Tyler Biadasz and Cornelius Lucas. That offensive line was good early in the season but has bled sacks late. Washington could finally get Marshon Lattimore back, but I make the injury report worth about half a point to Tampa, and that's huge with the line stuck right at the key number of three.
The Bucs have proven more worthy of our trust. Tampa Bay is 4-3 against playoff teams, while Washington was just 1-4 and faced an extremely soft schedule. The Commanders' defense faced only three top-10 offenses by DVOA all season and allowed at least 30 points in all three. Bucky Irving will test this defense and has proven an excellent weapon, so Daniels isn't the only key rookie in this one.
In the end, I'm happy to bet against Washington OC Kliff Kingsbury. I trust Bucs OC Liam Coen a lot more, and I also trust Todd Bowles' defense against Kingsbury and a rookie QB making his playoff debut.
Playoff debut QBs facing experienced postseason QBs are just 19-37-1 ATS (34%) since 2002, and team experience is also a factor. The Bucs have been here before, having won the division four straight times. Wild Card hosts that made the playoffs facing a team that missed last season like Washington are 22-10-1 ATS (69%).
These teams already met in the season opener, and the Bucs dominated, 37-20. In Wild Card rematches where the host won the last matchup by 14+, that host is 11-4 ATS (73%).
This is the best trends spot of the weekend. I like Bucs -3 (-105 FanDuel).
If you're not a live bettor but want to approximate the ups and downs we could see in this game, you can parlay Washington first-half moneyline with a Bucs full-game moneyline at +612 (FanDuel).
Picks: Bucs -3 (-105; FanDuel), and sprinkle Washington HT / Tampa Bay FT +612 (FanDuel)
Commanders vs. Bucs Props
Jayden Daniels Rushing Props & Anytime TD
I love to play quarterback rushing overs in the playoffs since QBs tend to put everything on the line in the postseason, and that's especially true for guys making their playoff debut.
We know Todd Bowles is going to bring the heat and blitz early and often. The book on Jayden Daniels coming out of college is that he tends to tuck the ball and scramble at the first sign of pressure, and that's been a go-to move for him in the pros too, with more scrambles than any other QB by far.
The Bucs allow the third most fantasy points to opposing QBs and the second most rushing TDs, and it's shown in the numbers against quarterbacks that like to run. Lamar Jackson ran nine times for 52 yards and Jalen Hurts ran eight times and ran a touchdown. Rookie Bo Nix ran nine times for 47 yards and a score.
And way back in his rookie debut in the season opener, Jayden Daniels had the best rushing game of his career, running 16 times for 88 yards and two scores on the ground.
Books are onto this, pricing Daniels at 8.5 rushing attempts and 48.5 rushing yards, so if we want to bet Daniels as a runner, we'll have to be aggressive.
I like Daniels over 48.5 yards (-114 FanDuel), and I'll play an Anytime Touchdown at +185 (DraftKings). I'll also play 80+ rushing yards as he did in the previous matchup at +430 (FanDuel), and the top level of the escalator is 15+ rushing attempts at +1400 (bet365) in case he really turns into a runner.
If you like this angle and think Washington gets another game, bet Daniels at +2000 (FanDuel) to record at least 200 rushing yards in the playoffs. We'll probably need at least one long run to get there, but 20-to-1 is too long.
Picks: Jayden Daniels rushing escalator: over 48.5 yards (-114; FanDuel) | Anytime TD (+185; DraftKings) | 80+ yards (+430; FanDuel) | 15+ attempts (+1400; bet365)
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