We have a doubleheader of games for our experts to make their NFL predictions on, with a pair of matchups between AFC contenders.
First, the Texans and Chiefs face off in a matchup of division winners. Patrick Mahomes' ankle had people worried last week, but it looks like he's good to go. Then, an AFC North rivalry is rekindled as the Ravens host the Steelers.
Let's get into our staff's picks and predictions for NFL Saturday.
Texans vs. Chiefs Best Bets
Against the Spread
Texans +3.5
Billy Ward: Despite suffering what appeared to be a somewhat serious sprained ankle last Sunday, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has logged two consecutive full practices to start this week. As of Thursday, Mahomes doesn't even carry an injury designation heading into the weekend.
However, I'm not fully convinced. While the Chiefs listed Mahomes as a full participant, they reportedly went through fairly light practices due to the short week and how late it is in the season. Mahomes will almost certainly play, barring a setback, but that doesn't mean he'll be at 100% strength.
This is important because the Chiefs' offensive line continues to struggle and the Texans rank second in the league in adjusted sack rate. Part of what makes Mahomes so special is his ability to move around within the pocket and make off-platform throws — both of which are harder with only one good leg.
When Mahomes' status was less certain, Houston was favored by as much as 2.5. While a full-strength Mahomes might be worth six points to the spread, I don't think this version will be.
Besides the Mahomes factor, this isn't a Chiefs team that's been putting opponents away. Four of their last five wins were by three or fewer points, and they remain the No. 1 team in our NFL Luck Rankings.
This pick isn't purely based on fortune since the Texans have also been lucky (11th), but I'd prefer to be on the right side of the Luck Rankings when possible.
Over/Under Pick
Under 42
John LanFranca: Games involving the Chiefs have seen the under cash in four of their last six games, and in the two games in which the over hit, Kansas City gave up 57 total points. I expect an inspired defensive performance from the Chiefs defense on Sunday and a low-scoring affair.
The Chiefs defense is the seventh best on a yards-per-play basis, and they are coming off one of their best performances of the season. Kansas City held Cleveland to 4.4 yards per play last Sunday, allowing them to convert just 33% of their third downs. While you may think the Texans offense is considerably better than that of the Browns, don't be so sure.
Houston has averaged 4.7 yards per play on offense since Week 7, only higher than the New York Giants over that span. They also will be completely one-dimensional Saturday, as they have the worst rushing success rate this season and are facing the second-best rush defense on a yards-per-carry basis. CJ Stroud will have to convert a number of 3rd-and-long situations in order for Houston to sustain drives.
The Chiefs offense isn't clicking either. Since Week 7, this is the 30th-ranked offense in yards per play and the least explosive passing attack in the NFL. Considering the game plan will almost entirely revolve around protecting Mahomes from the second-best adjusted sack rate pass rush, you can expect a conservative attack from Kansas City.
With the Texans offense sputtering and the Chiefs offense having to move the ball with methodical, clock-churning drives, this spot is ripe for yet another under to cash involving these two squads.
Steelers vs. Ravens Predictions
Against the Spread
Steelers +6.5
John LanFranca: Many bettors, including myself, backed Mike Tomlin last week in Philadelphia as an underdog, only to see the Eagles salt away the game in what seemed to be a relatively easy cover. However, the Steelers were driving to tie the game before one offensive miscue swung momentum in the Eagles' favor. While the result might have left a bad taste in the mouth of bettors, I am going right back to the well, taking the points with this Pittsburgh team.
Lamar Jackson is 1-4 in his career against the Steelers. The last time Baltimore didn't lose outright or barely squeak by the Steelers to win was back in 2019 in a game in which the starting quarterbacks were Devlin Hodges and Robert Griffin III. Since then, each of the nine meetings between these two teams has been decided by one possession.
Mike Tomlin's Steelers teams have only found themselves as 'dogs of six or more points 20 times over the entirety of his coaching career, covering the spread at a 65% rate in those games. Inside the AFC North, Tomlin is a remarkable 26-9 against the number, covering 74.3% of the time. Over the last five seasons, Pittsburgh has cashed as an underdog in 76.5% of their divisional games. This is the perfect Tomlin spot.
TJ Watt is no longer listed on the injury report leading up to this game, which obviously bodes well for the Pittsburgh defense. Alex Highsmith was absent from their first meeting with the Ravens, yet the Steelers were able to generate pressure on Lamar Jackson on 40% of his dropbacks.
I expect another closely contested AFC North battle and would happily take the points here down to +6.
Over/Under Pick
Under 45.5
Billy Ward: This game forecasts temperatures in the mid-30s with winds in the mid-teens. That's good for a 17% reduction in scoring on average, according to RotoGrinder's WeatherEdge tool, albeit with a small sample size of just six games.
More importantly, the Steelers are one of the league's best defenses, allowing less than 19 points per game. While the Ravens are certainly a strong offense, they were held to just 16 points in their last encounter. That game featured better conditions, plus we typically expect divisional rematches to be lower scoring than the original game.
On the Steelers side, George Pickens is officially questionable, but we should be pessimistic about that condition. Pittsburgh's offense is averaging just 20 points per game without him.
The 27 points they scored against Cleveland without Pickens were also the consequence of Jameis Winston and the Browns gifting them solid field position with a pair of interceptions. Pittsburgh managed just 267 yards of total offense in that contest. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are unlikely to make things as easy for the Steelers, which should help limit scoring.
This line will likely drop a bit if and when Pickens is officially ruled out. As it stands, FanDuel is giving us an extra half point over the rest of the market, so get the 45.5 if possible. I'd still play the 45 line if necessary, though.
