NFL Predictions, Picks, Odds: How To Bet Cowboys-Chiefs, Cardinals-Seahawks, Bengals-Raiders

NFL Predictions, Picks, Odds

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Bengals at Raiders Odds

Michael Arinze: My approach to this game is more so from a modeling perspective. I use three different models to make my numbers: One has the Bengals as a pick'em, another as a 1.5-point favorite and the last as a 2.5-point favorite.

In this matchup, I initially didn't fancy either side, but the Bengals should benefit from a bye in Week 10. What I can tell you unequivocally is that I want no part of the drama that's circling over the Raiders at the moment.

But here's the real kicker for me. Favorites off a bye with an additional week of rest over their opponents are 116-84-5 for 26.64 units of profit.

That's it. That's the handicap in a nutshell.

Cincinnati is a one-point favorite, so look to play their moneyline to -118.

Pick: Bengals ML -112 | Bet to Bengals ML -118

Cowboys at Chiefs Odds

Phillip Kall: If the Chiefs are truly back on offense, this game will come down to which defense can get the one or two stops necessary. The raw stats point to the Cowboys, but I believe it is going to be the Chiefs.

The problem for Dallas here is its base system is what the Chiefs excel at beating. Just last week we saw Kansas City torch the Raiders, who run the same Cover 3 system as the Cowboys. Dallas could always pivot to a two-high safety game plan, but is doing something you are uncomfortable with a good idea against an elite offense?

Of course, the backend coverage could matter little if there is no up-front pressure. Given Dallas’ injuries up front and the Chiefs' sixth-best pass-block grade, Mahomes may have all day to dance and move until someone like Tyreek Hill finally breaks open.

As for the Chiefs defense, it has built a trio of pass rushers that may not be the best, but will still cause some problems. Kansas City also can turn it up in the second half and make the one key stop that can completely turn the tide.

The biggest factor though is that the Chiefs get the benefit of facing Mike McCarthy. We have seen several occasions this year when McCarthy mishandled the game clock and timeouts. In a matchup where I believe the winner will come down to who has the ball last, I will trust Andy Reid to manage the game better.

Back the Chiefs to show they are truly back and win a potential Super Bowl preview.

Pick: Chiefs -2.5 | Bet to: -3

Cardinals at Seahawks Odds

Sunday morning update: With Kyler Murray now expected to miss this game, the Seahawks at -2.5 or better are now a bet (check real-time NFL odds here).

We know what Cardinals backup quarterback Colt McCoy is at this point — he has obvious limitations down the field. And the Seahawks' run defense is solid enough to contain James Conner.

Joe Klein: When McCoy started against the 49ers, San Francisco closed as a 5.5-point favorite. Based on that and where the lookahead number was (Arizona -2.5), the market seems to be pricing this as about a 70% chance that Murray plays.

Based on what we've seen practice wise, this seems fair to me, although I think it's more likely he plays in a limited fashion.

The Seahawks have been heavily bet this week for a reason. People are willing to take that chance on Murray not playing, or at least playing in a limited fashion. We've also seen the total come down for that same reason.

There's a lot of uncertainty in this game, but one thing we know is that Seattle plays close games. We also can expect a less effective Arizona offense with Murray limited and Hopkins out. With a total that has fallen to an average NFL total this season, that makes Seattle an excellent teaser option, if you can get them through 3 and 7.

Another appealing option is Conner as an anytime TD scorer. With Hopkins out and Murray's ankle injury limiting his running in the red zone, we can back Conner to score at -120. Conner has scored a touchdown in seven out of 10 games this season, and with a decent volume increase without Edmonds, he should have opportunities to find the end zone here.

Pick: Tease Seahawks from 1.5 to 7.5 | James Conner anytime TD Scorer -120 | Bet to: No lower on teaser | Conner to -140

NFL Predictions, Picks, Odds

Colts at Bills Odds

Phillip Kall: If this were college football, a playoff committee would be looking at both teams’ resumes and asking where is the wow. The only real difference that stands out is Buffalo’s win against the Chiefs, but even that could get an asterisk. Fortunately, while these teams have performed similarly, particularly as of late, the spread does not treat it that way. Add in that it will likely be cold, windy and rainy, and a touchdown spread is too much.

The Colts already prefer a conservative game plan thanks to their offensive line and running backs. They will have no problem grounding and pounding their way through the Bills and asking Wentz to not do too much.

The Bills, on the other hand, rely on their passing game and ability to stretch the field. Josh Allen does have a rocket for an arm, but wind and a wet ball can put a damper on any passing attack.

I still expect Buffalo to win this one outright, but a touchdown in bad conditions against a run-first team is too much. Take the points and back the Colts to cover.

Pick: Colts +7 | Bet to: +7

Washington at Panthers Odds

Mike Randle: I'm laying the points with Carolina.

The return of Newton should energize a Panthers team that is currently in the seventh and final playoff spot in the NFC. Per the Action Network App (check real-time public betting data here), only 55% of the bets but 65% of the money is on Carolina, indicating sharp action.

I want to avoid the hook, so I would look to get this line no higher than the current number.

Pick: Panthers -3 | Bet to: -3

Ravens at Bears Odds

Michael Arinze: Baltimore has been dealing with a ton of injuries since the start of the season, and is already playing without quite a few starters. The more significant concern might be Jackson, who, despite being a full participant in Friday's practice, missed the previous two days with a non-COVID illness.

As for Chicago, while the statuses of Akiem Hicks and Khalil Mack are undoubtedly concerning, both players have already missed multiple games this season. Losing Robinson certainly isn't optimal either, but Marquise Goodwin is a capable option with 24 targets on the year and 14.4 yards per catch.

You could make the argument that Baltimore has been fortunate to win six of its nine games this season. No team has won as many games as the Ravens while struggling as much as they do on third down. Even Chicago's third-down conversion rate of 34.58% is higher than Baltimore's (34.21%).

It's worth considering whether the Ravens are just a team that plays down to their opponent. Baltimore is 1-4 against the spread (ATS) this season against teams that have a .500 or worse record. Chicago is another sub .500 team, and during Jackson's tenure, Baltimore is just 10-11 ATS as a favorite when facing a team below .500. Furthermore, Baltimore's failed to cover its last four games in this situational spot.

Even if you're banking on the Ravens to bounce back from a loss, under Harbaugh as a favorite of at least six points, they're 4-14-1 ATS for a loss of 10.08 units. Based on that criteria, they're also 0-5 ATS mark coming into this game.

This point spread has already moved up to 6.5, likely in response to the injury report and Jackson returning to practice. I, for one, hope it gets to seven or higher so I can swoop in and play the Bears at that price. But if it stays at +6.5, I'll grab some insurance at DraftKings by buying the half-point up to +7 at -130 odds.

Pick: Bears +7 (-130) | Bet to: +6.5

Lions at Browns Odds

Billy Ward: Given the struggles of the Browns offense without Hunt and the Lions' ability to run the ball, it's hard to see this one turning into a complete blowout. Detroit has played better teams close this year, with single-digit losses to the Ravens and the Rams.

So ultimately, what this pick boils down to is how much of a downgrade Boyle would be from Goff.

Personally, I'm expecting it to be an upgrade if anything. As bad as Goff has been, he's looked even worse since suffering his injury. The Lions realize this too, having him attempt only 25 passes in last week's overtime game. Detroit went as far as to run the ball — multiple times — on third-and-long instead of trusting Goff to make a play.

However, when news of Goff missing practice broke, the spread in this one moved even higher. If you think there's no way Boyle can play worse than Goff, that's an irrational move.

So, as scary as it is to say, I'm on the Lions +11.5 this week, but that's as low as I'm willing to go in backing them.

Pick: Lions +11.5 | Bet to: +11.5

49ers at Jaguars Odds

Joe Klein: With the Niners' travel, short rest and big Monday night win, the narratives point toward the Jaguars.

But things like home-field advantage are overvalued in the market. This year, the average home team has been favored by two points but has only won by one-half point.

Also, Shanahan's 49ers are 16-10 ATS in the Eastern or Central time zones. They have consistently played good football on the road.

Expect San Francisco to run the ball down Jacksonville's throat, while the Jags will likely struggle on early downs, with Nick Bosa and Arik Armstread coming at Lawrence on third-and-long.

These teams are in different weight classes. The 49ers -6.5 is a tad short to me, and at -105 or better may constitute a small play. Keep an eye for Jags money and be ready to pounce.

If this game does play out as I expect, an angle to look for is a second-half under. In obvious passing downs, I don't expect the Jaguars to move the ball much, while the 49ers should be able to milk the clock with slow-moving drives.

Pick: 49ers -6.5 | Bet to: -6.5 (-105)

Packers at Vikings Odds

Billy Ward: On the season, these teams combine to score an average of 46.2 points per game. These teams combine to allow an average of 41.4 points per game. Finally, these teams combine to possess the ball for 62:21 per game, meaning over two minutes of time will be "lost" by the offenses compared to their average game.

Yet with all of that, this game has as high as a 47.5 point total at several books (see real-time NFL odds here).

I certainly see the scenarios in which this goes over. Namely, a quick Vikings score or two leading to Green Bay's passing attack opening it up.

However, neither I nor the spread believe that to be the more likely scenario. Any other game script and you end up with two teams controlling the ball on the ground in a slow-paced battle.

While this line was as high as 49.5 earlier in the week, it's still too high at 47.5. I'd prefer to give out this pick at the higher number, but it still has value as it stands now. The median number for this game is probably about 45. I'd bet it down to 47, but be sure to shop around using the best number with our odds tool.

Pick: Under 47.5 | Bet to: 47

Dolphins at Jets Odds

Mike Vitanza: In a game that oddsmakers expect to remain relatively close given this 3.5-point spread, I expect the Dolphins to employ a strategy similar to what we’ve seen in Tagovailoa’s other starts this season: a heavy dose of passing plays designed to exploit this 32nd-ranked Jets secondary.

With fellow wide receiver DeVante Parker still on injured reserve, Waddle should be in line for another big day. Given the matchup and projected game flow, it’s hard to envision a scenario where he doesn’t exceed the 8.4 targets per game and 65.2 receiving yards he’s averaged over his last five games.

While Tagovailoa will certainly spread the ball around, his former Alabama teammate will undoubtedly be the first look on most passing downs.

I’m taking the over on this Waddle receiving prop at 62.5 yards and will be playing it up to 65.5.

Pick: Jaylen Waddle Over 62.5 Receiving Yards | Bet to: Over 65.5 yards

Saints at Eagles Odds

Michael Arinze: It's difficult to ignore the line movement in this game. Initially, I thought it was related to Alvin Kamara being out. However, the Saints will also be without two starting tackles, and that sounds like a recipe for disaster when you're already starting a backup quarterback. On defense, New Orleans won't have a starting tackle in Malcolm Roach and a backup edge rusher in Tanoh Kpassagnon.

Meanwhile, the Eagles' injury report is much more manageable, and they'll also get back Miles Sanders. He was activated off IR on Saturday after missing the past three games with an ankle injury.

But there's one thing that's keeping me from pressing the button on the Eagles. Saints head coach Sean Payton is a perfect 7-0 ATS in this spot off a close game that either resulted in a tie or a loss of no more than two points.

If all things were equal, I'd be taking the points with the road underdogs. However, as I stated, the injuries are problematic enough that I'm now leaning more in the direction of the Eagles.

Philadelphia has yet to win a home game in four attempts this season, and I doubt they'd get a better opportunity than on Sunday against New Orleans. As a result, I would bypass the Eagles altogether on the point spread and back them to win the game straight up. SugarHouse has the best price on the board at -139 at the time of writing (see real-time NFL odds here), and I'd consider playing them up to -148.

Lean: Eagles ML -139 | Bet to: -148

Texans at Titans Odds

Mike Vitanza: Football is a game of matchups. Despite the Texans' offensive woes of-late, in Week 11 they’ll be taking on an extremely depleted Titans defense in a game that presents strong offensive opportunities throughout. While I don’t expect the Texans to put up 30 points here, there is nothing to suggest that this version of the Titans defense will completely shut them down.

On the other side, the Titans have proven that they can score in bunches, even despite missing marquee names like Henry and Jones. Against a porous Texans defense, don’t expect that to change on Sunday. Brown, in particular, should have a big bounce-back game here given the substantial matchup advantage he has over his primary defenders.

At the current total of 44.5, there is clear value on the over. I’m hammering this at the current line and would be comfortable playing it up to 47.

Pick: Over 44.5 | Bet to: Over 47