Every week during the 2024 season, I share my three favorite NFL picks against the spread (ATS) and my betting card for every Sunday slate. And for this week, I've also included a fourth bonus bet. For what it's worth, the Raiders are the other side I played on Sunday, but I need at least +10 there.
For reference, here are my season-long records.
- 2023: 37-17
- 2024: 7-13-1
- Overall: 44-30-1 (59.5%)
Here are my expert NFL predictions and Week 8 picks for Sunday. For reference, I listed the lines I bet and what I would play each to.
NFL Predictions
- Dolphins -3 (-115) vs. Cardinals
- Browns +9 (-110) vs. Ravens
- Jaguars +4.5 (-110) vs. Packers
- Bengals -2.5 (-110) vs. Eagles
Let's get into the reasoning behind my Week 8 picks.
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Cardinals vs. Dolphins
To me, with Tua Tagovailoa back under center, the Dolphins are significantly undervalued on Sunday — even if you bake in a slight production decline for Tagovailoa returning after a long hiatus after suffering another concussion.
Miami's offense was obviously a disaster without Tagovailoa, as it also dealt with other injuries. However, now at almost full strength on that side of the ball, there's no reason why the Dolphins can't get whatever they want on the ground or through the air against a very suspect Arizona defense that is the only unit in the league allowing a Success Rate north of 50%.
The Cardinals also don't blitz or generate any natural pressure (bottom-3 in the league), which is the path to slowing down this prolific Miami aerial attack when at full health. Additionally, the Cardinals are also beat-up on the defensive side of the ball with Dennis Gardeck going down as the latest of many losses along the front seven. That will hurt an already anemic edge rush.
Look no further than last week against the Chargers. Justin Herbert moved the ball with ease through the air with a shorthanded wide receiver corps that isn't even in the same stratosphere as the skill position talent that Miami has at its disposal.
The Cardinals also could easily be 1-5 on the season. They got very fortunate to beat the Chargers by 2 last week in a game where they recovered all three game-changing fumbles. One of their other two wins came (by 1) against San Francisco in miraculous comeback fashion, in large part due to the fact that the 49ers lost their kicker to injury during the game. Their one convincing win came at home against a beat-up Rams team in a horrible situational spot.
Meanwhile, their four losses have come by 6, 7, 21, and 28. This is also a horrible situational spot on the surface with Arizona having to travel across the country on a short week after playing on Monday night.
While Arizona's talent-less defense has performed poorly, as expected, Miami's defense has actually exceeded expectations under first-year defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver despite some major injuries. While the competition hasn't been great of late, Miami is still one of only five teams allowing a Success Rate under 40% and could potentially get even healthier this week. The Dolphins also do an adequate job of getting pressure up the middle, which is how you neuter Kyler Murray and this Cardinals offense.
I'll take the Dolphins at home in a good spot with a number I show value in. More importantly, it's a pretty good matchup on both sides of the ball, especially for Miami's offense, which has historically destroyed bad defenses with Tagovailoa at the helm.
Trending: Tagovailoa owns a career 17-10 ATS (63%) record vs. teams under .500, covering by over four points per game on average. As a favorite in those games, he's fared even better at 15-7 (68.2%) against the number.
Pick: Dolphins -3.5 or better
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Ravens vs. Browns
The Browns burned me last week, but I'd certainly make that bet again. The offense was efficient enough with Deshaun Watson (15-for-17, 128 yards) at the helm before he got hurt, and the defense came to play against a division rival. Cleveland just couldn't overcome countless special teams mistakes (missed field goal, missed extra point and a kick return touchdown) and extreme inefficiency from DTR (11-for-24, 82 yards, 2 INT) in a game it actually out-gained Cincinnati 336 to 223 yards with a 4.4 to 4.2 yards per play edge.
Well, I'm going right back to the well with the Browns now upgrading at quarterback since Jameis Winston will get the start. He came in late for an injured DTR and led a touchdown drive. And if he wasn't listed as the emergency quarterback (potentially to keep the crowd quiet?), Cleveland likely covers that game.
Well, now, the Browns finally have a quarterback who not only can run their modified offense that has given the play-calling reins to Joe Brady and gone back to playing to the strengths and weaknesses of the personnel, but Winston also provides more downfield passing upside against a Ravens secondary that has been a bit vulnerable to the explosive play and could be without top cornerback Marlon Humphrey.
Historically, this is also a spot when you want to back Winston. As an underdog of more than a field goal, he's gone 19-10-1 ATS (65.5%), covering by 4.5 points per game. Conversely, he's burned money as a favorite with an 8-19-1 ATS (29.6%) record.
It's hard to put into words just how poorly Watson was playing this season. He ranked dead last among qualified quarterbacks in Adjusted EPA per Play (yes, worse than Will Levis) with an unspeakably bad 34.6% Success Rate. Winston is certainly an upgrade of potentially a few points from a very low bar.
It's also worth noting Cleveland is getting healthier on offense. Nick Chubb made his season-debut last week and should see an uptick in workload on Sunday. Additionally, the offensive line is in the best shape it's been all season. Not only are both starting tackles now back in the mix, center Ethan Pocic is now healthy, and there's an outside shot the Browns get All-Pro guard Wyatt Teller back this weekend after he was activated off IR.
Speaking of health, the defense is also trending positively in that department and has played its best football at home over the past two seasons. They also play plenty of man coverage and can generate pressure, which are two requirements for having a shot at slowing down the juggernaut Baltimore offense. It's also worth mentioning No. 1 receiver Zay Flowers got banged up last week.
Lastly, this is not a great situational spot for the Ravens. Not only have they played a string of very emotional games during their five-game winning streak, they will be playing their second straight road game on a short week after playing on Monday night. For what it's worth, road teams laying over a touchdown on winning streaks of five or more games have cashed at only a 42% clip historically.
Trending: As a favorite of a touchdown or more, Lamar Jackson has gone just 13-18-1 ATS (41.9%) in his career.
Pick: Browns +8.5 or better
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Packers vs. Jaguars
I think the Packers are getting a bit too much respect with this line. Keep in mind they recently closed as only a 3-point favorite against a severely shorthanded Rams team in Los Angeles. The current version of these Jaguars are certainly superior to that version of the Rams, who actually out-gained the Packers 370 to 328 and would've covered my early number of 3.5 if not for a missed extra point. Speaking of which, unlike the Rams, the Jaguars should have a special teams advantage in this particular matchup.
Green Bay's defense definitely has more juice under first-year defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley, who is running a much more aggressive scheme than his much-maligned predecessor, Joe Barry. I do think that is the route to go with this particular roster, but it's a unit that has certainly benefited from extreme turnover luck.
While they rank sixth in EPA per Play overall, if you remove turnovers, Green Bay drops to 16th and 30th in Success Rate. And on the much more predictive early downs, the Packers rank 31st in Success Rate (and 30th in EPA per Play) sans takeaways. For comparison, the Jaguars rank 11th and 17th, respectively, primarily due to a stout run defense.
Jacksonville still has issues in coverage, but it did at least get top cover corner Tyson Campbell back from injury last week. The importance of his presence in the Jaguars' man-heavy scheme can't be overstated, especially since they do run a lot of the coverages that have given Love some issues in the past. The Jaguars also have been extremely unlucky in the takeaway department, so there's certainly some two-way regression that could work in their favor on Sunday.
On the surface, this might not be the most ideal spot for Jacksonville after back-to-back games in London, but it won handily over Indianapolis in this same spot last season. It actually could be an even trickier spot for the Packers, who could be a bit sleepy for an out of conference road game against a 2-5 Jags team, especially after an emotionally draining win over the Texans and with a big divisional showdown on deck against the Bears. A little Florida humidity can't hurt the Jaguars' chances as well.
I believe Trevor Lawrence & Co. will have opportunities to hit some explosive plays against a Green Bay defense that is a bit overvalued in the market, in my opinion. And with Campbell back in the mix, the Jaguars can make enough plays on known passing downs (assuming their run defense holds up as usual) to keep this one close throughout, especially if their pass rush finally shows up.
Give me the home dog with a spread that I project right at a field goal.
Trending: Jordan Love has only closed as a road favorite of more than a field goal two previous times. Both came last year in games the Packers lost outright against the Giants and Panthers — who finished with a combined 8-26 record.
Pick: Jaguars +4 or better
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Eagles vs. Bengals
Bonus Pick: Bengals -2.5 (split with ML) vs. Eagles
Joe Burrow essentially just needing to win at home vs. a team that I have power rated lower than the Bengals? Count me in. Let's just hope Tee Higgins can go after popping up on the injury report (quad) late in the week.
I'm still not buying this Eagles passing attack, which just doesn't look materially different than the unit we saw stumble down the stretch last season. Hurts is still really struggling under pressure, and I haven't loved the play-calling or structure of the offense so far this year. Plus, the offensive line is in worse shape in the post-Jason Kelce era, especially now with left tackle Jordan Mailata (who was playing at an All-Pro level prior to his injury) on the shelf, leaving those duties to Fred Johnson, who has been horrid in limited duty. Philly also has other injuries on this side of the ball with guard Mekhi Becton and tight end Dallas Goedert both ruled out. The latter really limits the flexibility of Kellen Moore's offense.
The offseason acquisition of Saquon Barkley definitely added a major punch to the rushing attack, which should enjoy some success against the Bengals, but the Cincy run defense is certainly in much better shape health wise than it was earlier in the season.
Speaking of health, it looks as if left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. will start after suffering an injury last weekend. That's a massive development with Trent Brown already out for the season. If Brown couldn't go, the Bengals would've likely turned to Cody Ford, which could've ended in disaster.
Burrow should have plenty of time to pick apart an Eagles defense that has benefited from some key opponent offensive injuries to date. This is still a group that got shredded by Tampa Bay and Green Bay — two other teams with plus receiver corps like Cincy.
Keep in mind the Bengals arguably should have beat both the Ravens and Chiefs (without Tee Higgins) and usually hits their stride around this time of the year. I think they get it done at home.
Trending: Joe Burrow is 16-7 ATS (69.6%) in his career against opponents with a winning record.
Pick: Bengals -2.5 or better
