Every week during the 2024 season, I share my favorite NFL picks against the spread (ATS) and my betting card for every Sunday slate.
For reference, here are my season-long records.
- 2023: 37-17
- 2024: 9-14-1
- Overall: 46-31-1 (59.7%)
Here are my expert NFL predictions and Week 9 picks for Sunday.
NFL Predictions
- Ravens 1H -5.5 (-120)
- Packers +3.5 (-120)
Let's start with the obvious. Lamar Jackson has been a cash cow throughout his entire career in the first half betting market. In fact, he's the most profitable quarterback in NFL history in the first 30 minutes of games. Just take a look at some of these numbers:
- 54-29-2 (65.1%) ATS in the 1H, covering by over a field goal per game
- 46-23-2 (66.7%) as a favorite in the 1H, covering by just under 4 ppg
- 11-3-1 ATS (78.6%) in the 1H when laying 6+, covering by 5 points per game
There's definitely something to defenses taking time to adjust to the speed of Lamar, who has also been absolutely elite against the blitz this season. That's critical against the Broncos, who own one of the league's highest blitz rates.
The Denver defense has been very good statistically, allowing the fewest yards per play in the league. However, it has benefited from an extremely easy schedule of opposing offenses and other ancillary factors such as weather and injuries. Look no further than the past two weeks against a decimated Carolina team with Bryce Young at the helm and an injury-riddled Saints team that had to start Spencer Rattler. This matchup against the league's best offense could certainly be a shock to the system.
On the other side of the ball, the Ravens run defense has been superb, which should force Bo Nix to have to beat them through the air. While the pass defense metrics aren't great, they have faced a gauntlet of opposing quarterbacks, including Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, Dak Prescott and Joe Burrow. They even faced the Raiders at full strength (with Adams) and the Browns with a healthy offensive line plus Jameis Winston under center. The secondary has also been extremely unlucky in terms of dropped interceptions and should be much healthier this week, allowing them to go back to more dime looks where they are at their best.
Speaking of unlucky, the Ravens have been the most unfortunate team in the NFL in terms of penalties. On judgement calls, they are a net -16 flags — by far the biggest net negative in the league. There's some potential regression coming in that department.
I just don't see Nix fully taking advantage of some of the issues Baltimore has on the back end. Nix has also been atrocious early on in games, with a good chunk of his stats coming in garbage time or against the league's worst stop units.
Even including games against the decimated Panthers and Saints over the past two weeks, who each also allowed the Broncos to get the ground game going, Nix has a -0.145 Adjusted EPA per play in the 1H. Only Deshaun Watson has been worse among qualified quarterbacks, and Nix has been even worse in 1Q at -0.276.
This marks the first time all season the Lions will play outdoors, where Jared Goff has historically turned into a pumpkin, especially when there are any kind of weather conditions, which appears to be the case at Lambeau Field on Sunday afternoon.
Yes, Goff has been a covering machine throughout his career (73-49-2 ATS overall), especially during his time in Detroit. However, look at his splits indoors vs. out:
- 39-16 ATS (70.9%) indoors
- 34-34-1 ATS (50.0%) outdoors
His touchdowns per interception also drops from 3.8 to 1.8 when playing outside. He's also fared a bit worse against zone defenses this season, which he should see plenty of against an improved Packers stop unit under new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley, who has installed a much more aggressive defense that is a much better fit for Green Bay's personnel. The Lions also won't have the services of wide receiver Jameson Williams, which takes away some of their explosiveness down the field.
The big question on the other side of the ball is who will start under center for the Packers. If it's a healthy Jordan Love, I'd make the Packers a small favorite against a Detroit defense that I think is ripe for the picking after the loss of Aidan Hutchinson along a defensive line that already has dealt with other injuries. Yes, the Lions have continued winning without Hutch, but the Titans and Vikings moved the ball at will over the past two weeks.
Even if it's Malik Willis, I'm fine taking a shot with the Packers at over a field goal here. While it's not the biggest sample size, Willis has been tremendous anytime he's taken the field this season. He won both of his spot starts earlier in the year, and led the Packers to victory in Jacksonville last week after Love went down. Believe it or not, Willis actually leads all quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE composite in 2024.
The Packers would obviously become more run-heavy with Willis under center, but I think that could work against a Detroit run defense that is much more vulnerable following the injuries up front. Plus, the Lions have historically struggled against mobile quarterbacks.
Even with the QB uncertainty, I'm okay fading the Lions here, who I think have reached the peak of their market value after blowing out some bad teams and benefiting from some key opposing injuries. They are also coming off a completely misleading blowout against the Titans in which they ended up winning by 38 points with only 225 total yards of offense.
Since 2003, teams coming off a win of more than 35 points have gone just 38-56-4 ATS (40.4%) the following game.
Lastly, for what it's worth, Matt Lafleur is 28-16 ATS (63.6%) at home, including 6-1 against the number as an underdog.
