We close NFL Week 3 with not one, but two Monday Night Football games. We have you covered with NFL predictions across all markets.
First, the Tennessee Titans (0-3) face the Miami Dolphins (1-2) on ESPN at 7:30 p.m. ET from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. Then, the Seattle Seahawks (3-0) face the Detroit Lions (2-1) on ABC at 8:15 p.m. ET from Ford Field in Detroit.
The first matchup sees Will Levis try to avoid committing more devastating turnovers, as he starts opposite Tyler Huntley in his Dolphins debut. Then Geno Smith and Jared Goff face off in what appears to be a potential playoff preview based on early results.
NFL Predictions for Monday Night Football
Our experts have you covered for both games tonight.
We have picks against the spread and on the total for each game, as well as players props for Tyreek Hill and Sam LaPorta.
NFL Picks: Titans vs. Dolphins
Spread
These are the two worst scoring teams in the NFL in terms of points per possession. The Dolphins might get a boost from Tyler Huntley starting this game, but he joined the team after the preseason.
On the other side, Will Levis brings uncertainty to any game he starts. So why am I betting on the Titans?
Well, I am siding with the much better defense. Miami will have to run the ball often without Tua Tagovailoa, and the Titans are allowing just 3.7 yards per carry to running backs this season, which is sixth in the NFL. This defense is well-rounded and allows just 6.0 yards per pass attempt, as well, which is fourth in the NFL.
I'm expecting the Miami defense to struggle again this week.
The Dolphins defense entered Week 3 as the 30th-ranked unit, according to DVOA, The Miami defense has allowed passers to complete 73.5% of their attempts over the last two weeks, and it ranks 29th in missed tackle rate against the run.
This could be a low-scoring slog, so I'm backing the QB with the better defense supporting him.
Pick: Titans +2.5 (-105, DraftKings)
Total
This is a game that makes us thankful for another Monday Night Football doubleheader. We'll keep our eyes on a fun Seahawks-Lions matchup and hope nothing happens in an ugly under on the other channel.
This total started around 47 before the season and was 39 on Sunday before getting bet down all week. I grabbed it at under 37.5 ahead of the key number (37), but I still like it at 36.5 if that's what you have to settle for. When totals go this low, history says books simply cannot make the total low enough.
Totals at 38 or below that have dropped at least 4.5 points from open are 35-20-2 (64%), and totals at 37 or below are 36-13-1 (74%) since November 2019.
Both teams feature new aggressive defensive play callers from the Mike Macdonald tree in Baltimore, and that could make for tough sledding for two teams without an answer at QB. Will Levis continues to give the game away one mistake at a time, and Miami doesn't even know who's starting at QB.
The Dolphins have barely resembled a professional offense without Tua Tagovailoa. Per Rich Hribar, Miami's offense under Mike McDaniel has averaged 6.4 yards per play with Tagovailoa, most in the NFL, but just 4.8 yards per play without him, third from last.
The Dolphins have been the worst team in the league with Skylar Thompson. Miami is averaging 11 points per game on the season, and the Titans have yet to cross 17. Tyler Huntley is set to start instead of Thompson, and he's 8-1 to the under as a starter with his games averaging less than 32 points.
This is also a Luck Rankings under — Nick Giffen and I talked about the under on our Tuesday roundtable podcast when we bet this at 37.5. Grab the best number you can find and be grateful for Seahawks-Lions.
Pick: Under 37.5 (-120, ESPN BET)
Player Prop
By Kyle Murray
It seems unbelievable to think we're getting this kind of number on a Tyreek Hill receptions prop, but here we are.
After watching the Dolphins' debacle last week in Seattle, I have more confidence in Tyler Huntley than Skylar Thompson. More importantly, I have confidence in Mike McDaniel to get the ball in the hands of his best players.
I'm buying the dip and expect some more production from Miami as it gets acclimated to life without Tua Tagovailoa.
Pick: Tyreek Hill Over 4.5 Receptions (+105, BetMGM)
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NFL Picks: Seahawks vs. Lions
Spread
By Billy Ward
The Lions are 2-1 with a plus-nine point differential after games against the Rams, Bucs and Cardinals through three games. It's a pretty competitive schedule to start the season Detroit has covered the spread in each of its wins by six and seven points, and it has also left points on the board.
The Lions have scored a touchdown on just 38% of red-zone trips, which ranks 26th in the league. The Lions were second last season in that category and, at least on paper, have a better offense this season.
If that red-zone regression kicks in tonight, Detroit will put up plenty of points against a Seahawks team that allowed 20 points to both the Patriots and Broncos. Seattle is undefeated but got wins against those porous offenses and the Skylar Thompson-led Dolphins.
Also, I'm not worried about missing the key number of three. Detroit’s is so hyper-aggressive in its decision-making that it wouldn't shock me to see Dan Campbell go for a 2-point conversion after a touchdown gives him a two-point lead, or even if he opts against settling for three points on a short fourth-down situation.
Pick: Lions -4 (-110, bet365)
Total
On a per-play basis, Seattle entered Week 3 with the best defense in the NFL. Seahawks opponents are averaging fewer than 20 yards per drive against them this season.
The Seahawks pass rush has been the star of the show, generating pressures on 44% of quarterback dropbacks in the first three games of the season. While Seattle admittedly hasn't played a difficult slate of QBs, the pressure rate is so impressive that the data feels sustainable.
Detroit has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL but will be without center Frank Ragnow for this game. He has been the fourth-ranked center in the NFL this season, according to Pro Football Focus, which only adds to the concern about Jared Goff's protection in this game.
Finally, I have to get to this being a primetime under spot. Since the start of the 2022 season, night games have gone under at a remarkable 62.4% rate. Goff has played in seven primetime games in that span, and five have gone under. Geno Smith has played five with three going under.
I'd play this under down to 45.5.
Pick: Under 47 (-110, bet365)
Player Prop
By Matt Trebby
This is about as low of an opportunity to buy Sam LaPorta’s receiving yards as we’ll get, although this isn’t as much a bet on him as it is a fade of the Lions’ top two receivers.
Entering Week 4, the Seahawks ranked first in the NFL in DVOA against opposing WR1s and eighth against opposing WR2s. It makes sense since they have two elite cornerbacks in Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon, who plays a lot in the slot and should be matched up a lot with Amon-Ra St. Brown here.
Well, Seattle is 14th against opposing tight ends but hasn’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of players at that position this season in Noah Fast, Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. Henry did go off for eight catches and 109 yards.
I’d play the over on LaPorta to 40.5, as Chris Raybon’s mean projection on him is 44 yards, as of Sunday night.
Pick: Sam LaPorta Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-110, DraftKings)
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