We have NFL predictions & picks against the spread and game totals for this Sunday's Week 4 slate of games.
Our betting experts have bet four spreads, notably three underdogs and one side in a huge NFC North matchup. We're also on two unders, including a playoff rematch from this past January.
According to our public betting page, the Vikings are the most popular team on Sunday afternoon. The Bengals vs. Panthers matchup has the highest percentage of money on one side, and that action is going on Cincinnati.
Let's get into our NFL Sunday picks below.
NFL Predictions, Picks
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Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Simon Hunter's Vikings vs. Packers Pick
By Simon Hunter
It was fun while it lasted, Vikings fans. We knew eventually that the sportsbooks would catch up to this team, though. I think we finally have a spot in which Minnesota is overvalued.
Whereas the 49ers and Texans were overwhelmed by defensive coordinator Brian Flores' defense over the last two weeks, Green Bay has seen it before and knows how to beat it. I give a huge edge to Matt LaFleur running the Packers offense in this matchup. We saw him really lean on the run and attack the middle of the field against this defense last year, and that's what the Packers have done well over their last two games, as well.
LaFleur is 19-11 against the spread (ATS) against divisional opponents as Packers head coach, including 10-5 ATS at home. Now, with Jordan Love looking set to return, I believe this number is too low. I make it closer to -3.5.
We’ll take this short home favorite against an overvalued Vikings team anytime. Not only is this a great spot, but the trends and models love it, as well. Teams that are 3-0 straight-up (SU) and listed as underdogs in their fourth game are 2-9 SU and 3-7-1 ATS over the last decade. Over the last 20 years, it's 6-19 SU and 9-15-1 ATS.
Shop around, find Packers -2.5 and bet it.
Pick: Packers -2.5 (-115)
John LanFranca's Jaguars vs. Texans Prediction
Doug Pederson's job may be on the line Sunday, as is the Jaguars' season if they plan to make any noise in the AFC. A Monday night blowout loss to the Bills will not have bettors wanting to take the underdog on the road against a popular Texans team, but this is just too good of a spot to pass up if you are looking to back Jacksonville.
Houston's offense looked good in Week 1, but we have come to see that performance was more of a product of the Colts' poor defense. In Weeks 2 and 3, the Texans averaged just 5.1 and 4.7 yards per play. Now, Houston is dealing with several injuries that make it difficult to project an improvement to an offense that ranks 29th in explosive play rate this season.
Since the beginning of 2022, underdogs of 4.5 or more points within the division are 48-35 (57.8%) ATS. In the 10 instances that underdog had lost three consecutive games, that team is 8-2 (80%) ATS.
I'm betting the desperate team to pull out all of the stops to get the victory in this game. The Jaguars will play the Texans closely throughout this game.
Pick: Jaguars +6.5 (-112)
Kyle Murray's Rams vs. Bears Pick
By Kyle Murray
The Rams are beaten and battered, especially on the offensive line and missing key playmakers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Despite that, Los Angeles pulled off an upset last week, coming back to beat the 49ers, a team that was amongst the preseason Super Bowl favorites.
So far this season, I have not been impressed by this Bears team. While I think the offense has shown signs of hope and could get going this week, I don't see this one being a blowout. I'm betting on the Rams keeping this close in the Windy City.
Pick: Rams +3 (-110)
Simon Hunter's Steelers vs. Colts Prediction
By Simon Hunter
The Steelers deserve all the love and respect people are giving them through three weeks. The defense is playing great, and Justin Fields hasn’t committed any dumb turnovers. This line reflects all that. The public is a big believer in this team.
I'm of the view that Pittsburgh had some great matchups to start the season. The Colts, on the other hand, are a bad matchup for the Steelers.
I feel that way because of how this offense can attack Pittsburgh. The key to attacking the Steelers defense successfully is to run the ball, which is perfect for Indianapolis. The Colts have the third-highest-graded run blocking offensive line, according to Pro Football Focus, and that unit is blocking for a top-five running back in Jonathan Taylor. Mix in Anthony Richardson with the read option, and this is a great spot for Indy.
In his young career, Richardson has played against good defenses. He is 2-0 SU and ATS against defenses that are allowing less than 20 points per game. I think we’ll finally see how Fields handles playing from behind in this game. I could see the Colts defense finally getting him to commit some turnovers.
Take advantage of this inflated line, and hopefully the public has driven it up firmly into the Colts +2.5 range.
Pick: Colts +2.5 (-105)
John LanFranca Picks Eagles vs. Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers offense were instantly credited with picking up from where they left off in 2023 after one good performance against the worst pass defense in football by torching the Commanders in Week 1. Since then, Tampa Bay put up 216 total yards against the Lions and 223 yards against the Broncos. The Bucs have averaged 4.2 yards per play over their last two games.
Tampa Bay is 30th in the league when it comes to the rate at which they reach the red zone or end zone on a per-drive basis. The Eagles defense had a slow start to the season, but this D generated pressure on 44% of Derek Carr's dropbacks last week in a win on the road against the Saints. It shouldn't surprise anyone that it may have taken a couple of games for Vic Fangio's defense to take shape.
Mayfield has not dealt with pressure well this season and was sacked on seven occasions by the Denver defense in Week 3. I don't expect him to fare well here
For the Eagles, you can expect a heavy dose of Saquon Barkley and the running game, limiting the total number of possessions for both teams. A.J. Brown is questionable and Devonta Smith is out. Assuming neither player is active, that takes away any explosive passing element for the Eagles. Even with the injuries to the Bucs' secondary, Philadelphia simply will not have the personnel to expose that unit.
I'd play this total under all the way down to 41.
Pick: Under 42.5 (-110)
Kyle Murray's Browns vs. Raiders Over/Under Bet
By Kyle Murray
If you plan on watching this game, I hope you know what you're getting into: a low-scoring affair.
Both of these teams have solid defenses and will want to run the ball often. The problem this season for the Raiders is that they haven't been efficient on the ground, although that hasn't stopped them from trying.
Both of these teams are averaging fewer than 20 points per game. I think that continues this week and the under hits.
Pick: Under 36.5 (-110)
