And then there were four. The NFL Divisional Round did not disappoint, with four exhilarating matchups.
The Buffalo Bills outlasted the Baltimore Ravens in a battle of AFC heavyweights, while Jayden Daniels’ historic rookie season continued with a colossal upset win on the road in Detroit.
The Chiefs and Eagles are the current Super Bowl favorites, but Daniels and Josh Allen will look to play spoiler this Sunday.
NFL Predictions: Conference Championship Round
In this article, I’ll cover one player prop for each team playing on Conference Championship weekend. As always, shop around for the best number available to you. Advanced metrics come courtesy of Fantasy Points Data and FTN.
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Commanders vs. Eagles
Dyami Brown Under 42.5 Receiving Yards (-105 Caesars)
Last week, Dyami Brown was priced at over/under 36.5 receiving yards against a decimated Lions defense that had been hemorrhaging downfield passing production. The game had a 55-point over/under and was being played indoors, with the Commanders in a projected significant trailing game script as double-digit underdogs. Detroit also presented an ideal schematic matchup as a heavy man coverage and single-high defense. It was nearly impossible to doctor up a better spot for Brown to succeed.
Brown was indeed successful in that environment, posting six catches for 98 yards, marking his second straight game with 89 or more receiving yards. However, it’s time to sell high, with several factors working against Brown this week. Those same downfield passing opportunities likely won’t be there for the Commanders this week as the Eagles have the top deep ball pass defense in the league by DVOA.
The Eagles also rank first in DVOA against WR2s, primarily thanks to consistently stout coverage from Quinyon Mitchell and Darius Slay. Brown mainly aligns on the right side, where he’ll face Slay, who has played almost all of his snaps this year as the left-side cornerback. Slay has allowed just a 50.6% catch rate in coverage, which ranks sixth-lowest among 128 qualified cornerbacks, per PFF.
Early forecasts suggest the weather won’t be nearly as bad as it was for the Eagles’ matchup against the Rams. Still, any wind or precipitation would be a downgrade from the Commanders’ comfortable indoor game last week. Finally, play volume should be significantly reduced for Washington after it ran 73 plays last week. The Eagles lead the NFL in time of possession, and the Commanders ran 63 and 64 plays in their two matchups this season.
Dallas Goedert Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
After missing time earlier this season, Dallas Goedert has looked great lately, posting 47+ receiving yards in three straight games since his return to the lineup. Goedert is back to a full-time role in the offense, posting snap shares of 92% and 95% in the Eagles’ two playoff games. He’s cleared 38+ receiving yards in five of seven games this season when playing 75+% snaps, averaging 60.3 receiving yards per game.
The Commanders are at a massive disadvantage in run defense in this game. They rank 26th in run defense DVOA and allow the second-most yards before contact per attempt (2.36). Meanwhile, the Eagles generate 2.52 yards before contact per attempt, the second-most in the NFL. Saquon Barkley torched Washington in two games this season, posting 146 and 150 rushing yards. The Commanders have no choice but to sell out to stop the run.
As a result, opportunities will open up in the passing game, and Goedert won’t be the top priority for the Commanders’ defense as a short-area safety valve. Washington ranks 26th in DVOA against tight ends this season, and in his lone game against the Commanders this year, Goedert posted 61 receiving yards.
Finally, Goedert should see more opportunities due to Jalen Hurts’ compromised mobility. While offensive coordinator Kellen Moore said Hurts’ leg injury won’t change the team’s game plan this week, it would be surprising to see a high rate of designed quarterback runs or scrambles. Instead, look for Hurts to hit Goedert as an outlet where he can generate yards after the catch – he ranks third among qualified tight ends with 6.5 YAC per reception.
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Bills vs. Chiefs
Khalil Shakir Over 5.5 Receptions (+126 FanDuel)
The Chiefs’ run defense has been excellent this season, allowing the seventh-lowest yards per carry (4.14). As a result, opposing offenses have often skewed pass-heavy — the Chiefs have faced the 12th-highest pass rate over expectation this season. The Bills followed suit in their earlier matchup this year, posting a 63.4% early down pass play rate. That would rank second in the NFL this season, significantly higher than their 49.9% year-long rate.
Khalil Shakir benefitted in that pass-heavy environment in Week 11, catching eight passes for 70 yards. This matchup favors Shakir stylistically, as the Chiefs rank second in two-high coverage rate (61.1%). Shakir has posted impressive numbers against two high defenses this year — out of 103 qualified WRs, he ranks 10th in target per route run rate (0.27) and 11th in catch rate (78.4%).
Josh Allen only attempted 22 passes against the Ravens last week, as the Bills leaned heavily on their run game with a 60.9% early down rush play rate. Shakir still caught six passes, but he should see more opportunities this week as Allen has a pass attempts prop lined at 31.5. Shakir has caught 6+ passes in seven of eight games this year when Allen attempts 30+ passes, so this is a tremendous plus-money value.
Patrick Mahomes Longest Pass Completion Over 34.5 Yards (-108 FanDuel)
The most significant concern for the Bills entering this game has to be the declining play of their secondary. Since Week 14, Buffalo ranks 29th in dropback EPA allowed. Over that span, the Bills have allowed the fourth-most passing yards (384) and third-most yards per attempt (8.0) on 20+ yard throws. Last week, Lamar Jackson torched Buffalo on downfield throws, completing three of five 20+ yard attempts for 105 yards. Rashod Bateman and Isaiah Likely both hauled in receptions over 35 yards.
Before this season, I believed we’d see a renaissance for Patrick Mahomes as a downfield passer with his best cadre of weapons since Tyreek Hill left the team. Unfortunately, injuries to Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown complicated that expectation. However, Mahomes has now cleared this longest completion prop in three straight games, and with Brown providing an additional vertical element, he has the receiving talent to test this defense deep.
It’s also critical to note that the Bills are dealing with injuries to their already ailing secondary. Christian Benford suffered a concussion on the final play of the game against the Ravens, and it could be a tough ask for him to clear protocol in time for this game. Taylor Rapp is also listed as questionable with a hip injury. Buffalo would likely turn to rookie Cole Bishop as the starter if he misses — he has a 48.7 PFF coverage grade this year.
After the Chiefs lost to the Bills earlier this year, Andy Reid will make schematic adjustments on offense, and I expect to see Mahomes test this defense vertically early. Four of the Bills’ last six opposing quarterbacks have cleared this line, and I like Mahomes to connect on a deep ball here.
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