I'm targeting a pair of sides on Sunday of NFL Week 12 and have picks on Cowboys vs. Commanders and Chiefs vs. Panthers.
So, let's get right into my expert picks and analysis.
Let's get this shmoney with my NFL predictions!
NFL Predictions
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Cowboys vs. Commanders Prediction
The Cowboys defense is the healthiest it's been all season with Micah Parsons off the injury report and DaRon Bland set to make his season debut.
As maligned as this team is, we should expect their best effort against Commanders head coach Dan Quinn, their former defensive coordinator who is just 17-26 (40%) ATS coming off a loss in his head-coaching career, per our Action Labs data. Meanwhile, road ‘dogs coming off a loss of 20 or more are 59-45 (57%) ATS since 2018.
We’ve seen the Commanders struggle of late to build margin against teams with competent defenses, but shaky offenses – beating the Bears 18-15 and the Giants 27-22 in the past month.
To be sure, the Cowboys offense with Cooper Rush at quarterback is bad, but not as bad as it’s looked over the past two games, which both came against defenses that rank top five in DVOA in Philadelphia (fifth) and Houston (third).
The Commanders rank 23rd and will have to wait at least one more week for the debut of Marshon Lattimore (hamstring). We’ve seen Rush lead a functional offense before, leading the Cowboys to a 4-1 record while scoring 20 or more points in 4-of-5 games in place of an injured Dak Prescott in 2022.
The Cowboys have accomplished the rare feat of failing to cover the spread by an average of 8.6 points per game.
According to our Action Labs data, road ‘dogs with an ATS margin of -8.0 or worse are 186-100-4 (65%) ATS since 2005, covering by 2.1 points per game.
Bet to: +10
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Chiefs vs. Panthers Prediction
The Chiefs have been a double-digit road favorite four times with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback and haven’t yet covered, going 0-3-1 ATS.
And since early November of 2020, the Chiefs are just 19-35-2 (35%) ATS when favored by more than a field goal, according to our Action Labs data.
As the season has progressed, the Panthers have been slowly morphing from historically bad to just a run-of-the-mill bad team.
The biggest change has been Bryce Young, who has improved as he’s gotten more time in Dave Canales’ offense since his early season benching.
Young has seen his EPA/DB spike from -0.362 over the first eight weeks to 0.056 from Week 9-on. That latter figure would rank him 23rd of 40 qualified quarterbacks over the full season, just ahead of C.J. Stroud (0.040).
The disastrous start to the season from Young (and Andy Dalton) masks the fact that Carolina’s offensive supporting cast has been solid. The offensive line grades out 12th in pass blocking (79.6) and ninth in run blocking (69.7) at PFF and will see left tackle Ikem Ekwonu return for the first time since Week 8.
Chuba Hubbard is fourth in the league in rushing yardage (818) and sixth among qualified running backs in success rate (56.5%). Rookie wide receiver Xavier Legette has found the end zone four times in the past seven games.
The Panthers will be getting reinforcements at the skill positions with rookie second-round running back Jonathan Brooks (knee) set to make his season debut and Adam Thielen (hamstring) set to play for the first time since Week 3.
The Panthers’ biggest weakness on defense — a lack of pressure — doesn’t hurt them as much in this matchup. Mahomes averages only 0.8 yards per attempt more from a clean pocket (7.2) than under pressure (6.4), and seven of his 11 interceptions have come when not under duress.
Of the Chiefs' nine wins, only one has come by more than 10 points.
Bet to: +10
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