I'm targeting a pair of sides on Sunday of NFL Week 13 and have picks on Titans vs. Commanders and Eagles vs. Ravens, which is probably the best matchup of the week.
So, let's get right into my expert picks and analysis.
Let's get this shmoney with my NFL predictions!
NFL Predictions for Week 13
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Titans vs. Commanders Prediction
This is yet another tough matchup for Jayden Daniels and a Washington offense that has been sputtering outside of late-game, Hail Mary situations. The Titans defense is first in yards per drive (25.75), fifth in early-down rush success rate (33.0%), and eighth in early-down pass success rate (45.9%).
Kliff Kingsbury’s static offense has made it easier for defenses to take away Washington’s top three assets: Daniels’ legs, the physical running of Brian Robinson Jr., and Terry McLaurin. The Titans match up well in these areas, ranking fifth in run-defense DVOA 0-21.2%), first in adjusted line yards (3.52), and first in schedule-adjusted receiving yards per game allowed to No. 1 wide receivers (44.6).
Will Levis has thrown the ball better as of late, going 53-of-78 for 748 yards with five touchdowns and two INTs over the past three weeks while facing three of the league’s top-seven pass defenses by DVOA (No. 4 Houston, No.2 Minnesota, No. 7 Chargers).
Levis' biggest issue has been taking 20 sacks in that span, which is why this is a concerning matchup for Washington’s defense. Not only is Washington the easiest matchup Levis has faced all year in terms of pass defense DVOA, but its pressure generation has evaporated.
Against a Cowboys offensive line missing its top-two players, Washington was only able to pressure Cooper Rush on 11.8% of his dropbacks. In the two games prior, the Commanders generated pressure less than one-third of the time against an Eagles offense that had allowed pressure on 44% of dropbacks on the season and pressured a Giants offensive line only 24% of the time that had also been allowing pressure over 40% without Andrew Thomas.
Bet to: +4
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Eagles vs. Ravens Prediction
This is a matchup of the two highest scoring second half teams: The Eagles rank first with 16.8 points per game in the second half, and the Ravens rank second with 15.8.
Naturally, that means they do less in the first half. The Eagles scoring 6.7 points per game fewer before halftime and the Ravens scoring 1.5 less in the first 30 minutes. Both of these teams tend to want to rely on the run early in games.
In terms of first-half points allowed, the Eagles rank fifth (8.6) and the Ravens rank 10th (9.8).
The key for both defenses is being able to stop the run. The Ravens defense is eighth in DVOA against the run, as well as top-two in second-level yards and open-field yards, which is critical against a back like Saquon Barkley.
The Eagles are ninth in DVOA against the run and fifth against the pass, which is key in containing the Ravens dual-threat offense led by MVP candidate Lamar Jackson.
According to our Action Labs data, Eagles first-half unders are 9-2, covering by 4.1 points per game.
Bet to: 24
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