I'm targeting a pair of sides on Sunday of NFL Week 17 and have picks on Panthers vs. Buccaneers and Packers vs. Vikings, which is probably the best matchup of the week. We're betting on road underdogs this afternoon.
Let's get this shmoney with my NFL predictions!
Here are my picks and analysis. To get all of my NFL bets instantly, follow me in the Action App.
NFL Predictions for Week 17
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Packers vs. Vikings
Packers +1.5 (-110)
I was on the Vikings as underdogs at Lambeau in Week 4, in a game they ended up winning outright by a score of 31-29, but I see value on the Packers this time around.
Since that contest, the Packers have evolved into not only a better team that is no longer plagued by the same issues that doomed them in the first meeting (turnovers, missed field goals), but also into the better team in this matchup, period, according to a wide range of key metrics.
- Total DVOA: GB 3rd (29.1%), MIN 6th (19.6%)
- Weighted DVOA (Total/Off/Def/ST): GB 2nd/3rd/3rd/4th, MIN 8th/14th/5th/24th
- Points per Drive: GB 6th (2.55), MIN 11th (2.23)
- Turnovers per Drive: GB 14th (9.4%), MIN 19th (11.2%)
- Explosive Pass Rate: GB 1st (12.5%), MIN 4th (11.1%)
- EPA per Pass: GB 5th (0.219), MIN 7th (0.170)
- EPA per Rush: GB 7th (-0.22), MIN 23rd (-0.124)
- Net EPA Per Play: GB 5th (0.19), MIN 6th (0.14)
- Schedule-Adjusted Point Differential (aka Simple Rating System, or SRS): GB 2nd (9.41), MIN 6th (6.97)
- Strength of Schedule (DVOA/SRS): GB 5th/4th, MIN 26th/27th
Both of the Vikings' losses came against teams that can pass efficiently but also deploy a high-volume run game (Lions and Rams), which the Packers can also do.
In six games since the bye, the Packers are averaging 30.5 points per game despite Matt LaFleur calling a designed pass just 45.9% of the time. Green Bay ranks third in EPA per pass (0.369) and fifth in EPA per rush (0.019) over that span, while Jordan Love averages 9.2 yards per attempt with 10 total TDs and one turnover.
The Vikings blitz at the highest rate, which is maximized even more because they face the most pass attempts (39.3) and second-fewest rush attempts (22.5) thanks to the fact they typically having the superior offense that allows them to play from ahead.
In the first matchup, the Packers first four drives went missed FG, INT, missed FG, INT, letting the Vikings turn what should have been a 14-6 game into a 28-0 advantage thanks to short fields.
Josh Jacobs averaged 5.1 yards per carry and the Packers had a net rushing EPA edge of +11.64, but Jacobs had only 9 carries while Love had 59 attempts and threw 3 interceptions in the trailing game script.
Still, the Packers showed flashes of what would have been possible with a better start, outgaining the Vikings 465-374 for the game and outscoring them 29-3 over the final 35 minutes.
It would be hard for the Packers to start any worse even if they hadn’t pivoted to a more run-centric offense (and hadn’t replaced kicker Brayden Narveson with Brandon McManus, who has made 16-of-17 field goals.)
Being able to play the way the Packers play essentially flips the script on the Vikings. Sam Darnold has a turnover-worthy throw rate of 3.6%, 12th-worst of 43 qualifiers and higher than Love’s 3.0% mark (T-21st). Darnold has turnover regression looming: He has the third-most turnover-worthy throws (21), but just the eighth-most interceptions (11).
I do expect Darnold to have success against a Packers secondary missing CB Jaire Alexander (knee) and safety Evan Williams (quad), though Green Bay is seventh in pass-defense DVOA with Alexander playing double-digit snaps in only five games, and Zayne Anderson’s 80.6 PFF grade would rank higher than Williams (72.6, 21st of 95) if he had enough snaps to qualify.
Per our Action Labs data, favorites with a straight-up winning percentage of .850 or more like the Vikings (13-2, 0.867) are just 38-62-2 (38.0%) ATS since 2003, including 17-29-2 (38.3%) ATS in divisional matchups.
Bet to: +0.5
Pick: Packers +1.5 (-110)
Panthers vs. Buccaneers
Panthers +8.5 (-112)
From Weeks 1-8, the Panthers were 1-7 SU and ATS with an average point differential of -18.4, with their only win coming in Andy Dalton’s first start in relief of the benched Bryce Young.
But since Young’s second game back after being reinserted in Week 8, he appears to have turned a corner and taken the Panthers along for the ride, with the team going 3-4 SU and 6-1 ATS with a -2.5 point differential.
Over that span, their only loss by more than six points came against the Cowboys, which is looking better and better by the week as Cooper Rush and company keep stacking strong efforts against quality opponents.
Their other three losses were by three to the Buccaneers (on the final play of overtime after Chuba Hubbard fumbled in Bucs territory), by three to the Chiefs (on the final play of regulation), and by six to the Eagles (after a dropped go-ahead score by Xavier Leggette with 0:44 remaining).
From Week 1 of 2023 through Week 8 of 2024, Young had a 59.8% completion rate, 5.4 YPA, a 2.1% TD rate, and a 2.4% TD Rate. Since Week 9, he has a 60.5% completion rate, 6.5 YPA, a 3.6% TD rate, and a 1.8% INT rate. He has also nearly doubled his rushing output, going from 14.7 yards and 0.05 TDs per game to 26.4 yards and 0.43 TDs, mostly thanks to some nifty scrambling ability.
Since Week 9, Young ranks 15th in EPA per dropback when blitzed and 12th in EPA per dropback when pressured over that span, which is noteworthy because the Bucs are third in blitz rate (32.9%) and 15th in pressure rate (22.7%). Young has been aided by the return of Adam Thielen, who is averaging 6.0 receptions, 74.0 yards, and 0.4 TDs in five games since coming off IR.
The Panthers are a top-half offense over that span, ranking 14th in EPA per play (0.053) and 16th in success rate (43.9%). The Panthers offensive EPA per play in the first half of the season is -0.178, so even if their true rate lies somewhere in between, such as their full-season mark of -0.068 is a massive jump.
The defense is well schemed by Ejiro Evero, but it's still mostly terrible (0.125 EPA/play, 31st). But the bump in offensive efficiency has essentially offset most of that, and it's the difference between the blowout losses we saw in the first half of the year and the one-possession losses we’re seeing now.
The line is a bit inflated because the Buccaneers are the only team with incentive to win, as they could be knocked out of the playoffs with a loss and a Falcons win on Sunday Night Football. These spots almost always create value on the non-incentivized team, and the Panthers in particular have shown no evidence to the contrary.
In fact, their last three wins already have to be considered one of the most damaging three-win stretches in NFL history for a team playing for nothing. First they ended Dennis Allen, then Daniel Jones, and then the Cardinals’ 2024 Playoff hopes.
According to our Action Labs data, divisional ‘dogs getting more than a TD (+7.5) that lost the previous head-to-head matchup by 14 points or less are 120-84-5 (58.8%) ATS since 2003, including a 96-68-4 (58.5%) mark for road dogs.
Bet to: +7.5
Pick: Panthers +8.5 (-112)
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