We have you covered for three of Sunday’s biggest games with our staff’s favorite NFL predictions. We have three spreads and two totals that we’re betting for the Week 7 afternoon slate.
The 1 p.m. ET slate on Sunday has a few elite matchups, one of which is Texans vs. Packers. Houston is 5-1 this season but it hasn’t impressed the way it did last season, as its point differential is plus-8. The Packers, meanwhile, are 4-2 and have won two straight and four out of their last five.
One of our experts is betting the underdog in Eagles vs. Giants. Philadelphia is 3-2 but has a negative point differential, while the Giants are coming off of another defeat last week against the Bengals.
To top it all off, we have a Super Bowl rematch in the late slate with Chiefs vs. 49ers. Simon Hunter cannot stomach betting against Patrick Mahomes as an underdog and explains why he’s backing the undefeated Chiefs. We also have a bet on the over/under for that game.
NFL Predictions Week 7
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Texans vs. Packers Prediction
Jordan Love is nearing full strength, and his play has reflected it with just one turnover-worthy throw in his last 58 attempts. Matt LaFleur has been masterful in scheming players open this season. Even accounting for the games that Love didn't start, the Packers lead the NFL in explosive gains through the passing game. Love's increased mobility combined with LaFleur's play-calling lead me to believe Green Bay can negate the Texans' strong pass rush.
The Texans has one of the league's best pass rushes but when teams have been able to complete passes against them, they have consistently generated chunk plays. Houston's defense ranks 26th in yards per completion allowed (11.6). The Packers' adjusted sack rate of 4.6% — which accounts for down, distance and opponent — is third in the NFL.
The Texans offense is just 17th in DVOA entering Week 7, and it's 30th in early down success rate. When Houston has faced defenses ranked near the bottom of the league in yards per play allowed — Patriots (23rd), Jaguars (30th), Colts (26th) and Bills (21st) — it has averaged 31.5 points per game. When facing viable defenses in the Bears and Vikings, the Texans are averaging just 13 points.
I'd play Packers -2.5 up to -120 but am comfortable with -3 at -110 or better.
Pick: Packers -2.5 (-120)
Texans vs. Packers: Green Bay Is the Pick
By Kyle Murray
The Packers seem to be finding their stride with as Love looking full healthy once again. Green Bay is coming off of a convincing win over Arizona last week that saw it produce the explosive plays we became accustomed to seeing over the back half of last season.
I think you can make the case that Houston is the better team when at full strength and on a neutral field, but that is not the case this week. The Texans will be without their top offensive weapon, Nico Collins, and Lambeau Field is an extremely tough place to play.
Pick: Packers -2.5 (-120)
NFL Picks: Texans vs. Packers Over/Under
By Sam Farley
A showdown between C.J. Stroud and Love gives us an opportunity to see of the best young QBs in the game have a shootout.
Both defenses are solid, in particular the Texans with their impressive pass rush, but these are offenses in the top-third of the league in passing yards per game and have been putting up some big scores. The Packers have averaged 27 points per game and the Texans 23.8.
Expect a high-scoring game at Lambeau Field with both teams looking for a statement victory — even the 5-1 Texans, who have not convinced many experts.
Pick: Over 48 (-110)
Eagles vs. Giants Pick: Take the Points With New York
By Simon Hunter
As is usually the case, I'm taking the home divisional 'dog.
If you missed last week in the NFL, road favorites were a perfect 9-0. Now, sportsbooks are giving us at least one-half free point on any home underdog this week.
That's the case here. The Eagles are a hugely public side that's also getting the vast majority of the money, so the spread is moving toward Giants -3.5.
It feels like most people are overlooking the fact that something is off with this Eagles team. Philadelphia is still struggling to put together consistent drives and has been very boom-or-bust on offense. It's easy to blame the coaching, but a lot of this falls on the shoulders of Jalen Hurts. The Eagles quarterback has been historically bad as a road favorite in his career at 7-15-1 against the spread (ATS). He's also 1-5-1 in his last seven starts in this spot.
Both teams have been hit hard by injuries, but the Giants will get the biggest book with star rookie receiver Malik Nabers looking like he will return to action.
I'm expecting an ugly, low-scoring game, and I could see getting the extra half point being very important. Shop around to see if you can get Giants +3.5.
Pick: Giants +3.5 (-115)
Chiefs vs. 49ers Prediction Against the Spread
By Simon Hunter
Finally, I'm backing a quarterback-coach combination that everyone won't hate me for betting on.
I tend to run away from public dogs, but Patrick Mahomes breaks all the rules. When he's getting points, don’t over think it. Mahomes is 10-3 straight-up as an underdog and 11-1-1 ATS.
His head coach thrives in this specific spot as well. You've probably heard about how good Andy Reid-coached teams are coming off of a bye week, but the trend is even more convincing when he's an underdog after a bye. Red is 4-0 straight-up and ATS with the Chiefs as a 'dog following a bye and 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in his career. Those two straight-up losses were to Peyton Manning in 2013 and Tom Brady in the 2005 Super Bowl.
You know who Reid didn’t have in those two losses? Mahomes.
If the game is close, Mahomes finds a way to win in the fourth quarter. The same cannot be said for this 49ers team, which has already lost two games this season that it was leading by 10 points.
On top of that, San Francisco is yet to beat a team over .500 this season. The Niners are still one of the five-best teams in NFL, but they clearly aren’t the same team that made it to the Super Bowl last season.
Take the points and trust this public 'dog.
Pick: Chiefs +1.5 (-110)
Chiefs vs. 49ers Over/Under Pick
There are different definitions of explosive play rate, but when looking at rushes of 10 or more yards and passes of 20 or more, Kansas City ranks last in the NFL in generating such plays at just 5.5% of the time. The Chiefs' offensive outburst against the Saints two weeks ago does not seem as impressive since we've seen this Saints defense fall to 31st in the league on a yards-per-play-allowed basis.
It will not be an easy task to run the ball against this Chiefs defense for San Francisco, a team that calls running plays at the eighth-highest frequency in the NFL.
Kansas City ranks in the top five in both yards per carry and explosive rush rate allowed, and this 49ers offense has averaged three fewer points per game this season than it did in 2023. San Francisco has also had the benefit of facing the 23rd-ranked strength of schedule this season when looking at the defenses it has faced, according to DVOA.
Finally, when it comes to converting red-zone possessions into touchdowns, both of these teams have struggled with the 49ers ranking 25th and the Chiefs in 29th.
Kansas City has played five games this season and four of those have had 47 or fewer points scored. Dating back to the 2023, there have been 47 or fewer points scored in 15 of 18 games involving the Chiefs.
Pick: Under 47 (-110)
