With the playoffs right around the corner, Saturday has three games with postseason implications.
Our NFL predictions are for Chargers vs. Patriots, in which Los Angeles can clinch a playoff spot in Jim Harbaugh's first season as head coach. Then it's Broncos vs. Bengals, which is a must-win for Cincinnati's already slim playoff hopes.
Finally, Cardinals vs. Rams is a big game in the NFC West. Los Angeles can put itself in pole position to win the division entering the final week of the season with a win over Arizona.
NFL Predictions: Week 17
Our betting analysts are backing two favorites and two overs on Saturday. The Patriots have been unlucky to only have three wins this season, while the favorites are the sides to bet in the other two matchups.
Let's get into our picks for Saturday's tripleheader. As always use our NFL odds page to make sure you get the best line available before placing your bets.
NFL Picks for Saturday Tripleheader
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Chargers vs. Patriots Predictions
Pick Against the Spread
Billy Ward: Patriots +6 (-110, bet365)
The Chargers travel to New England with a chance to clinch a playoff berth. They’re favored by 4.5 points over the 3-12 Patriots, who are riding a five-game losing streak.
However, the record doesn’t tell the full story for New England. Three of those losses were one-score games, including a remarkably close loss to the Bills last week. For a rebuilding team jockeying for draft position, a close loss against a good team might actually be the best-case scenario.
On the other hand, the Chargers are one of the five luckiest teams in our Luck Ratings, with their last three wins all coming in one-score games. They could also struggle to run the ball here, with Gus Edwards ruled out and JK Dobbins likely to be limited (in both workload and effectiveness) in his return from the IR.
They will also be without a starting offensive lineman, which will make running the ball even more difficult. Plus, traveling across the country to play an early game outside in December is a tough ask.
Put all this together, and I see another close loss for the home team. With the spread moving well past the key number of three, I’m taking the underdog here. With that said, don’t rush to get this bet in, as we might get an even better number closer to kickoff.
Over/Under Bet
John LanFranca: Over 42.5 (-110, bet365)
Considering how these two defensive units have played over the past six weeks, this total is lined a couple points too low. I believe this number should flirt with the key numbers of 44 and 45, thus there is value on the over here.
Since Week 10, the Chargers defense has given up 14 passing scores, tied for the most in the NFL. On a yards per attempt basis, Los Angeles was a top five unit against the pass during the first half of the season, but have now dropped to the bottom half of the league over the second half of the season.
Over the previous three games, Drake Maye has averaged 7.8 yards per pass attempt and has added more than 100 rushing yards to his total for the season. For context, Joe Burrow and Josh Allen average between 7.6 and 7.7 yards per attempt this season. Maye is starting to heat up and finds himself in a good matchup on Saturday.
Justin Herbert is also coming off one of his best games of the season and now gets a Patriots pass defense ranking 22nd in yards per attempt and 31st in DVOA. Not only has the New England secondary been vulnerable, but the defense is 29th in adjusted sack rate in 2024.
The Patriots have surrendered 28.2 points per game over their last five games, with four of those games seeing the over cash. There is very little wind in the forecast for this game with just a 30% chance of precipitation. I'd play this over up to 43.5.
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Broncos vs. Bengals Predictions
Pick Against the Spread
John LanFranca: Bengals -3 (-120, bet365)
The Denver defense did not allow a single quarterback to pass for 250 yards in a game over the first eight weeks of the season, but since then it has been a different story. The Broncos schedule became more difficult; since Week 9, Denver has allowed 289 passing yards per game, most in the NFL. Yes, one Jameis Winston historic performance weighs heavily on that number, but the Broncos still rank 24th in yards per attempt allowed over that same span.
Against the likes of Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert, also during that span, the Broncos were torched through the air, allowing 11.2 yards per attempt. The adjustment the Broncos' defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has started to make is to play fewer snaps of man coverage and to send fewer blitzes. He is desperately trying to protect his secondary, but in turn, the pass rush has suffered, generating four sacks total over their last three games.
It's nearly impossible to defend this Bengals defense, but they are showing signs of life. Over the last three weeks, the Bengals defense has generated 7 interceptions and 9 sacks. Only the Kansas City defense has allowed a lower passer rating over that span, as the three quarterbacks Cincinnati has faced have a combined rating of 65.1 since Week 14.
Even if we include the 700 yards passing Cincinnati surrendered in Weeks 11 and 14 at the hands of Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson, respectively, just 47.5% of all passes against the Bengals defense have been deemed "highly accurate" according to Fantasypoints data, 3rd best league-wide over that six-week span.
When the key number of three is involved, I am comfortable recommending playing -3 up to -120 odds, otherwise swallow the points up to -3.5 at -110 or better.
Over/Under Bet
Billy Ward: Over 50 (-110, BetMGM)
The afternoon game on Saturday features two playoff hopefuls in the Bengals and Broncos. Denver can punch their ticket with a win, while Cincinnati needs a win and some help to make it to the postseason.
Both of these teams are top-ten scoring offenses in the NFL, combining for more than 52 points per game on the season. The reason the Broncos are two games ahead of Cincinnati comes down to the defense – Denver has allowed 7.5 points fewer per game than the Bengals.
In this case, look for good offense to prevail over good defense. Part of the reason Denver’s points per game allowed is so strong is because the Broncos offense struggled early in the season, and their opponents didn’t need to attack aggressively.
With Bo Nix coming into his own as an NFL-level starter, Denver has averaged more than 30 points per game over their last five – while also allowing the Chargers and Browns to top 30 points against them.
Another shootout is highly likely here, especially against a Bengals defense missing two starters on their defensive line. Cincinnati can obviously score on anyone when needed, so it wouldn’t shock me if both teams cleared 30 points.
I’ll take the over 49.5, but jump on it as soon as possible. This number has been rising all week, and only a few books left still have it south of 50.
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Cardinals vs. Rams Predictions
Pick Against the Spread
Billy Ward: Rams -6.5 (-110, Caesars)
In Week 2 this year, the Rams traveled to Arizona and got demolished 41-10 by the Arizona Cardinals. A lot has changed since then.
The biggest factor was that the Rams didn’t have Puka Nacua for that contest, with Cooper Kupp exiting early. That kicked off a rough stretch for Los Angeles, in which they struggled to move the ball without their top two offensive weapons, starting the season 1-4.
They’ve gone 8-2 since then, losing only to the Eagles and Dolphins, and can clinch the NFC West with a win on Saturday. On the other hand, Arizona has fallen apart, going 1-4 over their last five.
The bulk of the Cardinals offense has been on the ground in recent weeks, and they come into Week 17 with both of their top running backs questionable. Typically running backs don’t have much impact on the spread, but the Arizona passing game has regressed so much that losing both of their top options could significantly hamper their offense.
Either way, the Rams should come out ready to make a statement here against a Cardinals team with nothing to play for. I expect them to cover the -6.5 spread, but I wouldn’t take it if it moves all the way to -7.
Over/Under Bet
John LanFranca: Under 47.5 (-108, DraftKings)
With the current formula the Rams are winning with, I am shocked this total is this high. The Rams ran the ball at a 62% clip last week in their win in New York last week, their highest rate in a single game this season. They did not control the game wire-to-wire allowed them to coast to a victory either, this is just the style of play Sean McVay feels gives them the best chance to win, given how well their defense is playing. In fact, the Rams have called passing plays on fewer than 50% of offensive snaps in four consecutive games.
Arizona is 25th in the league in yards allowed per carry this season, so while I don't expect McVay to stray from a ground-based attack, it may not be so easy to consistently move the chains against the Cardinals defense. The Cardinals stuff runs at or behind the line of scrimmage at the 5th highest rate in football. Regardless of how the Cardinals' defense performs, it is fair to expect several clock-churning drives from the Los Angeles offense.
The Rams are favored for a reason, they should control the tempo of this game. Kyler Murray and the Cardinals lack of offensive output is the reason why I am confident in this game failing to be played in the 20's. Against a weak Patriots pass defense, Murray mustered just 224 yards through the air, without accounting for a single score. Last week, Murray averaged just 6.3 yards per attempt facing another bottom-tier defense in the Panthers. Murray has accounted for multiple touchdowns just once in his previous five games.
To be honest, I'd play this total down to 45.5 – at the current number of 48, it is one of my most confident positions of the 2024 season.
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