The year of the chalk has continued in the NFL, as favorites have dominated from a betting standpoint. According to Evan Abrams, favorites are winning at a 72% clip in 2024, the third-best mark for a single season since 1980 and the most profitable since 2005. Home underdogs have been especially struggling, going 43-57-3 (43%) ATS, the least profitable season since 2005.
With the betting public dominating, it’s been a challenging year for contrarian bettors. I plan to do a deep dive this offseason to determine if this is part of a leaguewide trend or simply a small sample variance over a single season of data. In the meantime, let’s dive into the weekly slate of games for the final time this regular season as we gear up for the NFL Playoffs.
NFL Predictions: Week 18
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| Passes |
| Leans |
| NFL Week 18 Picks |
Passes
Here are games that I'm not betting on this week but won't leave you empty-handed on. Get a betting preview for each matchup below.
Bills vs. Patriots
The Buffalo Bills have clinched the No. 2 seed in the AFC, and they’re likely to rest several starters in this game. Josh Allen will get the start to continue his streak of 114 consecutive starts – the longest in the NFL – but he won’t play more than a few snaps. We’ll likely see plenty of Mitchell Trubisky in this game, and even with backup skill position players, he should have some success against the Patriots’ horrendous defense.
Drake Maye has had an impressive rookie season despite a complete dearth of supporting talent. This would be an inviting matchup against the Bills, who rank 26th in pass defense EPA since Week 11 and will likely be sitting several starters. Maye put together some compelling film against this defense just a couple of weeks ago.
The Patriots can secure the No. 1 pick with a loss, but their coaches and players will still want to end the year with a win. There’s too much uncertainty here for me to be confident in any side or total.
Verdict: Pass
Jaguars vs. Colts
Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley may have lost his job last week. In a must-win game, his defense allowed 45 points to the downtrodden Giants as Drew Lock threw for over 300 yards and four touchdowns. Yikes! I’d normally be telling you not to have any confidence in the Jaguars’ offense with Mac Jones, but as Brian Thomas Jr.’s stellar rookie season continues, he could thrive in this matchup.
It’s unclear whether or not Anthony Richardson will be able to play this week, but there likely isn’t a major market discrepancy between them. With the playoffs officially out of the picture, the Colts would likely love to give Richardson one last run against a league-worst Jaguars defense he should torch. I’ll be eyeing some different player props in this game, but I’m not rushing to the window on the side or total.
Verdict: Pass
Bears vs. Packers
The Bears have lost 11 straight games to the Packers and are 1-10 ATS, with the lone cover coming earlier this season as Green Bay won on a blocked field goal. Packers head coach Matt LaFleur has said that the team’s healthy starters will play in this regular-season finale, and they can secure the No. 6 seed with a win and a Commanders loss. That would set up an easier first-round trip to play the Rams or Buccaneers instead of the Eagles.
It’s worth noting that Chicago has extra time to prepare for this game after playing last Thursday, but the Bears will need to find a way to get off to a much better start – they’ve been outscored by over ten points per game in the first half since their last win over the Jaguars in London. The Bears are likely the more motivated team here, but I need an offseason reset before I can consider betting on them again.
Verdict: Pass
Giants vs. Eagles
The Eagles are planning on resting their starters on Sunday despite Saquon Barkley being on the brink of chasing history with the most rushing yards in a single season. Jalen Hurts will miss another game, but Kenny Pickett suffered an injury after getting the start on Sunday. He missed practice on Wednesday, so we could be headed towards Tanner McKee’s first start this week.
Drew Lock threw for 309 yards and four touchdowns for the Giants last week in a game most fans didn’t want the team to win, and New York could be poised for another win over Philadelphia’s backups here, further hurting their draft positioning. This is nearly a preseason game with McKee and Lock starting, and it won’t be one I’m betting on.
Verdict: Pass
Seahawks vs. Rams
This game could have decided the NFC West, but the Rams remarkably clinched the division last week after starting the season 1-4. Sean McVay has indicated that the Rams will rest their starters in this game, happy with either the No. 3 or No. 4 seed in the NFC. That could mean the difference between a first-round matchup against the Lions/Vikings or the Commanders/Packers, but the Rams will prioritize health before the playoffs.
The Seahawks, meanwhile, will likely approach this game as usual, hoping to end Mike Macdonald’s first year on a high note despite failing to reach the postseason. Seattle looks like a solid target for a ML parlay, but the value has been sapped out of the spread after they moved to a 6.5-point road favorite.
Verdict: Pass
Chiefs vs. Broncos
The Broncos can secure a spot in the postseason with a win over the Chiefs on Sunday, and they’ll catch a break as the Chiefs are expected to rest several starters with the No. 1 seed in the AFC already clinched. After a thriller against the Bengals last week, this matchup is projected to be much easier for the Broncos as they’re now priced as 10.5-point favorites.
The spread has probably gone too far in Denver’s direction, but I’m not particularly interested in projecting paths to scoring for Carson Wentz against an elite Broncos defense. The Chiefs will use this game to get young players some reps, and the Broncos should coast to the finish line and secure a playoff berth.
Verdict: Pass
Leans
I see an edge on these games, but it's not enough to make a bet.
Bengals vs. Steelers
The Bengals’ path to the playoffs is now clear. They need to win on Saturday and have the Dolphins and Broncos lose on Sunday. Standing in their path is a Steelers team that got their number earlier this season in a wild shootout that ended 44-38. Cincinnati’s defense has been a massive liability all year, and Pittsburgh generated over 500 yards of offense in that road tilt.
The Steelers will likely have their fates sealed with the Ravens clinching the AFC North in the first game on Saturday, but Mike Tomlin has indicated that the team will still play its starters. Securing the No. 5 seed is critical in the AFC – it’s the difference between a first-round road game against the Texans, where the Steelers may be favored, and the Ravens, who they just lost to by 17 points.
All of the underdog Mike Tomlin trends apply here, including his stellar 26-10-2 ATS (72%) record as an underdog in divisional games. I haven’t fired on the Steelers yet, but they’re the side, if any, as a home dog here. They also look like a terrific teaser piece, taking them up from 1.5 to 7.5.
Verdict: Use Steelers +7.5 in a Teaser
Texans vs. Titans
The Texans will play their starters in this game to get back on the right tack after last season’s blowout loss to the Ravens. “Everybody will be out there playing,” DeMeco Ryans said. “For us right now, it’s a feel for where our team is. And right now, our team needs to be playing better.” Specifically, the Texans need to be playing better on offense, where they rank 25th in DVOA despite massive expectations entering the year.
C.J. Stroud has had a sophomore slump behind an offensive line that has allowed him to be pressured at the highest rate of all qualified QBs. Houston’s defense has been excellent, on the other hand, ranking second in DVOA. The pass-rushing tandem of Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter has been superb and should terrorize a Tennessee offensive line that ranks 27th in pass-block win rate.
The Titans expect to give Will Levis and Mason Rudolph some run in this regular-season finale, but I don’t project either quarterback having much success. There isn’t great value on the line currently, but the under is the only way I’d look in this one.
Verdict: Lean Under 38.5
Commanders vs. Cowboys
With their primetime win over the Atlanta Falcons last week, the Washington Commanders clinched a playoff spot. However, they still want the No. 6 seed in the NFC, as they’d like to secure a first-round matchup against the Rams or Buccaneers instead of the Eagles. “We’re going to go after this as hard as we can. I think the seeding portion of this is really important, and that’s what we discussed as a team,” head coach Dan Quinn said.
The Cowboys secured a huge upset win over the Commanders earlier this season as 11-point road underdogs, and I’d expect Washington to exact revenge this week. Jayden Daniels has had a remarkable rookie season, ranking fifth in adjusted EPA/play, and this is a highly exploitable matchup against the Cowboys’ 22nd-ranked defense by DVOA.
There isn’t much value on the spread with the Commanders laying well over a field goal on the road, but I lean that direction with Cooper Rush struggling to keep up against Daniels’ explosive offensive attack.
Verdict: Lean Commanders -4.5
Panthers vs. Falcons
After an impressive debut at home against the Giants, Michael Penix Jr. had much more of a rocky outing in his first career road start last week. Still, with his mobility and ability to push the ball downfield, he’s an upgrade over Kirk Cousins for Atlanta. In this matchup, he should have an excellent opportunity to continue to build on his early success. The Panthers rank 31st in defensive DVOA and generate the lowest pressure rate in the league.
Bryce Young should also benefit from a clean pocket after facing a 48.6% blitz rate and 65.7% pressure rate against the Buccaneers last week. The Falcons rank well below average in blitz and pressure rate, and Young improves from a 62.2% adjusted completion rate under pressure to 74.2% from a clean pocket. With Chuba Hubbard out, the Panthers must operate their offense through a pass-heavy approach.
These teams combined for 58 points earlier this season and are a combined 9-1 to the over in divisional games this season. We should see a shootout between two young quarterbacks on an indoor track, and this could be a great game to target for player props.
Verdict: Lean Over 48 Points
49ers vs. Cardinals
Josh Dobbs will get the start for the 49ers this week after Brock Purdy suffered an elbow injury on Monday. Dobbs had some nice moments for the Vikings last year, but he has a paltry career of 5.8 YPA and 15 TDs to 13 INTs. It’s unfair to expect any strong offensive output on the road against a well-schemed Cardinals defense.
After looking like the team to beat in the NFC West at one point, the Cardinals have cratered with a 1-5 record in their last six games. This matchup affords them an opportunity to end their season on a high note against a 49ers team that’s been battered and bruised and is ready to get to the offseason.
Verdict: Lean Cardinals -4
NFL Week 18 Picks
Browns vs. Ravens
The Ravens have seen massive defensive improvement over the season's final stretch. Over the first ten weeks, they ranked 30th in pass defense EPA. Since Week 11, they rank first. Baltimore benched Marcus Williams, moved Ar’Darius Washington to a full-time free safety spot, and moved Marlon Humphrey to almost a full-time slot role. The results have paid dividends, and veteran defensive assistant Dean Pees has helped first-year coordinator Zach Orr find the right combination of starters on that end.
This surging defense runs into the worst offense in the NFL as currently constructed on Saturday. The Browns rank dead last in offensive DVOA, EPA, and success rate, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson ranks last out of 46 qualified quarterbacks in completion percentage over expectation. The Ravens need to win this game to clinch the AFC North, and with the benefit of extra rest, I expect a dominant first-half showing on their way to a win.
Verdict: Bet Browns 1H Team Total Under 6.5, Lean Ravens 1H -10.5
Saints vs. Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield has lit the league on fire, ranking 8th in EPA+CPOE and fourth in passer rating, as he’s been a perfect fit for Buccaneers’ offensive coordinator Liam Coen’s system. Mayfield has never closed as a 14-point favorite or higher in his NFL career, but he’s also playing the best football of his career, and the Bucs are poised to torch a Saints defense that has fallen apart in recent weeks.
The Bucs should be incredibly potent on the ground in this matchup, as rookie running back Bucky Irving is coming off a game with 190 yards from scrimmage. The Saints rank 31st in run defense DVOA. I expect Coen to have a strong script early in this must-win game with the NFC South on the line, and the Bucs rank first in the NFL with 7.2 first-quarter points per game.
As I’m writing this, Bet365 is still hanging a -3 on the Buccaneers on the first quarter spread at -115. I’d play that to -125, and -3.5 is fine after that. You can also use the Bucs’ first-quarter Moneyline in a parlay.
Verdict: Bet Buccaneers 1Q -3 (-115 Bet365)
Dolphins vs. Jets
It’s been a rough year for Aaron Rodgers and the Jets, massively failing to live up to expectations. But should they really be home underdogs against Tyler Huntley and the Dolphins? This line is a premium on the Dolphins, who must win and see the Broncos lose to make the playoffs, but history suggests teams in that exact situation are often overvalued.
This game fits a couple of profitable systems for games late in the year, which make it worth targeting. Since 1990, eliminated teams playing teams that are in must-win situations over the final two weeks of the regular season have gone 105-69-4 (60%) ATS. Meanwhile, teams with a win percentage between 40-60% in Week 16 or later have gone just 27-72-4 (27%) ATS against opponents with a 8-25% worse winning percentage, failing to cover by 3.8 ppg since 2007.
The Dolphins (20th) and Jets (24th) are only separated by four spots in total DVOA, but Miami’s numbers are inflated by their portion of the season with Tua Tagovailoa. Huntley is a massive downgrade – he ranks 43rd out of 46 qualified quarterbacks in passing success rate. Rodgers admitted that this might be his last NFL game, and I’ll bet on the legendary quarterback to play spoiler one last time.
Verdict: Bet Jets +1.5 (-118 FanDuel)
Chargers vs. Raiders
The last time the Chargers played a road game against the Raiders, the total closed at 34, and the teams combined for a whopping 84 points as Las Vegas boat-raced its divisional opponent 63-21. At that point, then-interim Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce was fighting to earn the full-time job – now he’s fighting to keep it.
The Raiders have played solid football lately, to be sure. They quietly rank top eight in defensive EPA/play and success rate since Week 11. Aidan O’Connell plays mostly solid, mistake-free football, and the change to Scott Turner as the interim offensive coordinator has paid dividends. They’re live for the upset here, especially with the Chargers’ motivations in question.
The Chargers will know on Saturday night if they can change their seeding in the playoffs. If the Bengals win, a win over the Raiders will secure them the No. 5 spot. If the Steelers win on Saturday, the Chargers will be locked in the No. 6 seed and could rest some starters in this game. I’d recommend paying close attention to that Bengals-Steelers matchup if you’re considering a wager on this game.
My favorite way to get action on this game right now is to play a smaller parlay with the Steelers and Raiders Moneylines. Not every sportsbook is allowing you to parlay those MLs, due to the correlated nature of the outcomes, but I was able to put them together at +433 on Caesars.
Verdict: Parlay Steelers ML and Raiders ML for +433 odds on Caesars (0.5u)
Vikings vs. Lions
The Lions escaped Monday night’s game without any more injuries, but their defense has cratered lately due to the massive amount of attrition on that end. From Weeks 1-12, the Lions ranked second in EPA/play allowed and allowed 16.6 points per game; since Week 13, they rank dead last in EPA/play allowed and have allowed 30 points per game.
The absence of Carlton Davis is especially problematic for a defense that relies on heavy man coverage and blitzing, trusting its cornerbacks to hold up on an island. The Lions play the highest rate of man coverage in the NFL (44.1%), and Sam Darnold has torched man coverage all year. Check out his splits vs. man and zone courtesy of FTN:
Man coverage: 8.4 YPA (4th), 25 TDs, 4 INTs, 124.3 passer rating (3rd)
Zone coverage: 8.1 YPA (12th), 10 TDs, 8 INTs, 93.7 passer rating (20th)
Aaron Jones has seen his efficiency decline over the second half of the season, and the Vikings don’t have an elite rushing attack. However, they’ve leaned into Darnold as the engine of the offense, with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson all stressing defenses. Minnesota ranks third in pass rate over expectation, and I expect Darnold to throw all over the Lions.
Detroit should have plenty of offensive success, and I especially love the matchup for Amon-Ra St. Brown, who has consistently torched the Vikings’ two-high, zone-heavy defense. Therefore, trusting the Vikings to score 28+ points is my preferred avenue to attack this game with the Lions’ wounded defense at a significant disadvantage.
Verdict: Bet Vikings Team Total Over 27.5
