We’re down to the final eight NFL teams vying for the Super Bowl, and we have a loaded divisional round slate with four exciting matchups.
On Saturday, Patrick Mahomes seeks to continue his playoff excellence before rookie Jayden Daniels leads the Commanders into battle against the dominant Lions. On Sunday, Matthew Stafford heads east for a date with the stifling Eagles defense before Lamar Jackson faces Josh Allen in a contest between the two MVP frontrunners.
Player prop markets are available earlier in the week in the postseason, and line movement can often be incredibly significant. In this article, I’ll offer one prop for each game I’m taking early. Advanced metrics are courtesy of Fantasy Points Data and FTN. Let’s dive in.
NFL Predictions: Divisional Round
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Texans vs. Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs have made a concerted effort to run more of their offense through rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy over the final stretch of the season, and I expect that to continue into the playoffs. Check out the following splits to get a better idea of how Worthy’s usage has increased:
Weeks 1-12: 13.9% target share, 0.17 targets per route run, 19% first-read share, 13.2% designed target share
Weeks 13-17: 21.3% target share, 0.25 targets per route run, 24.8% first-read share, 25.6% designed target share
Crucially, Worthy has seen his average depth of target (aDOT) decrease from 12.1 yards to 6.3 yards, while his air yardage share has decreased from 30.1% to 18.2%. Earlier this season, he was a part-time vertical deep shot player, but he’s become much more of a consistent pass-catcher in the short-to-intermediate area. That has helped him increase his catch rate from 52.8% over the first 12 weeks to 72.1% from Week 13-17.
The Chiefs rank third in early down pass play rate this season, and that has continued even with Isiah Pacheco’s return from injury. From Weeks 13-17, Kansas City ranked first in early down pass play rate at a blistering 66.7%. In this matchup, Patrick Mahomes has a pass attempt prop priced at over/under 37.5.
If we work backward with Worthy’s 21.3% target share and 72.1% catch rate over that five-game sample size, we can project Worthy for 5.8 receptions, with plenty of room to clear his receptions prop in this game. Worthy has cleared five receptions in five straight games, including a seven-catch game against the Texans.
If you want to reduce some of the juice here, you can pair Worthy’s receptions prop with an alternate line of Chiefs +3.5 to get down to -107 odds on FanDuel.
Verdict: Bet Xavier Worthy 5+ Receptions (-138 FanDuel)
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Commanders vs. Lions
Jayden Daniels has taken over the headlines this week after the rookie quarterback led the Commanders to their first playoff win in 20 years. Daniels thrived as a passer in the win over the Buccaneers, finishing with 268 passing yards and two touchdowns, but this matchup presents more opportunities for him as a runner.
Under Aaron Glenn, the Lions have steadfastly preferred to bring extra pressure and trust their defensive backs to hold up one-on-one. This season, Detroit ranks first in man coverage rate (44.9%) and second in blitz rate (34.6%). Given Daniels’ relatively low effectiveness against man defense (19th in EPA/DB) and the blitz (21st in EPA/DB), I expect that strategy to continue.
While that defensive game plan may help the Lions keep the rookie in check as a passer, it will likely lead to increased rushing attempts as he’s flushed out of the pocket and forced to improvise on the run. The Commanders also haven’t shied away from utilizing Daniels on designed runs in recent games, and with the season on the line, we can expect a heavy dose of designed quarterback run plays on Saturday.
During the Aaron Glenn era, the Lions have struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks in the run game. They have faced 13 quarterbacks that I would consider “highly mobile” since the start of the 2022 season, and those quarterbacks have averaged 9.6 rushing attempts for 64.6 yards. For context, I included the following players: Kyler Murray, Anthony Richardson, Caleb Williams, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts, and Daniel Jones.
I like the upside for Daniels’ yardage prop, but he had 13 attempts for 36 yards last week. Glenn will likely have a plan to keep Daniels in the pocket, but that won’t keep him from attempting to use his legs, especially in a trailing game script with plenty of play volume expected, given the 55.5-point over/under.
Verdict: Bet Jayden Daniels Over 9.5 Rushing Attempts (-114 FanDuel)
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Rams vs. Eagles
The Los Angeles Rams defense put together a clinical performance during the Wild Card Round, completely shutting down Kevin O’Connell’s offense and sacking Sam Darnold a whopping nine times. A different type of challenge awaits on Sunday as the Rams get a second crack at an Eagles team that hung 37 points on them in Los Angeles just a few weeks ago.
In that November 24 matchup, the Rams had no answer for Saquon Barkley as he ran wild with 26 carries for 255 yards and two touchdowns, including a 72-yard scoring scamper. When matched up with an elite Eagles offensive line, the Rams' defensive line looks wholly outmatched in the run game on paper. Check out the following metrics:
Philadelphia offensive line: 2nd in adjusted line yards on RB runs, 2nd in open-field yards, 2nd in yards before contact per attempt (2.52)
Los Angeles defensive line: 24th in adjusted line yards on RB runs, 12th in open-field yards, 28th in yards before contact per attempt (2.14)
The Rams have also allowed the third-highest missed tackles forced per attempt this season. This is certainly a lofty number for anyone to clear, but Barkley has topped it in 12 of 17 games this season, including 8 of 11 games with 20+ rushing attempts. Barkley is expected to see plenty of volume in a projected leading game script, and I’m backing him to rip off some chunk yardage at some point against this vulnerable Rams run defense.
Verdict: Bet Saquon Barkley Longest Rush Over 18.5 Yards (-120 DraftKings)
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Ravens vs. Bills
The Ravens thrashed the Bills earlier this season with a final score of 35-10, but much of that September contest needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Buffalo was missing several key contributors, including linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard. Still, the Bills rank just 25th in yards before contact allowed per attempt (1.96), and they will likely need to load the box to slow down Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry on the ground.
If Buffalo is successful in forcing Baltimore into more passing downs, one beneficiary should be Justice Hill. In that prior matchup against the Bills, Hill was featured through the air with six catches for 78 yards. That could be the case once again with Zay Flowers not at 100% health after missing last week’s win over the Steelers.
I’ve targeted receiving props for running backs against the Bills all season, as they’re vulnerable through the air to the position by design. They’ve allowed 42.4 receiving yards per game to running backs as they’re willing to cede underneath passing production in order to avoid giving up big plays. Buffalo ranks 8th in deep pass defense DVOA and 30th in short pass defense DVOA.
The Ravens played a high rate of 2 RB sets against the Steelers last week, playing with multiple backs or tight ends on 89% of snaps. When they deploy those heavier packages, the Bills’ defense will be primarily concerned with Henry and Jackson. They’ll be willing to cede short-area passing production to Hill in RPO sets, and I expect him to capitalize on the opportunity.
Verdict: Bet Justice Hill Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-110 Bet365)
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