And then there were eight. We're down to four games this weekend, and I have a bet for each of the first two on Saturday.
I'm on a touchdown scorer player prop for Texans vs. Chiefs, then I'm betting a side in the NFC tonight for Commanders vs. Lions.
Let's get this shmoney!
NFL Predictions: Divisional Round
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Texans vs. Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes has been much more efficient since pivoting to the quick-passing game when Marquise Brown returned in Week 16.
Mahomes Weeks 1-15
- 7.0 aDOT (40th), 2.82 time to throw (27th), 576 dropbacks (502 attempts)
- 66.7% completion percentage, 6.7 yards per attempt, 204 1st downs (35.4% per DB), 22/11 TD-INT, 2.5% turnover-worthy plays (13th)
- 35.9 attempts, 23.9 completions, 239.1 yd, 1.6 TD, 0.8 INT, 2.5 sacks, 18.6 pressure-to-sack rate (20th)
Mahomes Weeks 16-17
- 6.1 aDOT (27th), 2.41 time to throw (3rd), 85 dropbacks (79 attempts)
- 72.3% completion percentage, 7.3 yards per attempt, 32 1st downs (37.6% per DB), 4/0 TD/INT
- 39.5 attempts, 28.5 completions, 280.0 yards, 2.0 TD, 0.0 INT, 0.5 sacks, 0.0% turnover-worthy plays (1st)
The Texans defense is first in EPA/dropback on short, quick-release throws, but they were carved up on those throws by Mahomes 19-of-22 for 183 yards, with 156 coming after catch. Brown gives the Chiefs a second speed threat at WR who can play outside or in the slot, get open quickly, and get yards after the catch, which can negate the Texans’ two biggest strengths on defense, their edge rushing tandem of Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, and their perimeter cornerbacks duo of Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter. And it also serves as an alternative to the traditional run game, which negates another strength of the Texans defense that finished third in DVOA against the run during the regular season.
Defending slot wide receivers is an issue for the Texans. They’ve given up the highest TD rate to slot receivers, and have been struggling even more recently since losing versatile safeties Jalen Pitre and Jimmie Ward. Stingley Jr. and Lassiter are typically stationary at LCB and RCB, but when these teams met in Week 16, Lassiter followed Worthy to the slot but he gave up three catches and TD to Worthy, who posted a 7-65-1 line overall.
Against the Chargers, they chose to leave Lassiter outside and have Myles Bryant man the slot, allowing Ladd McConkey to post 197 yards and a TD, which worked because they were able to lock up everyone else and pressure Justin Herbert. With the Chiefs having multiple slot threats and Mahomes getting the ball out quickly, it’s going to be tough for the Texans to replicate their defensive performance of last week. They gave up 27 points in Week 16 in a 27-19 loss.
The Chiefs announced they will continue to start All-Pro guard Joe Thuney at left tackle instead of guard, which is a signal that they are prioritizing the quick passing game over the run game despite Isiah Pacheco (rib) being off the injury report and well-rested. It will likely lead to a lot of attempts and completions for Mahomes, even in a positive game script for KC.
The Texans scored the most points of Wild Card Weekend, but it is still on disaster alert. Since Tank Dell got injured on a 30-yard TD catch against the Chiefs, C.J. Stroud has led the Texans to only three TDs on 28 drives. One of those TDs was on his only drive against the tanking Titans. The second was a 99-yard drive against the Chargers in which he was lucky not to be called for a safety for grounding in the end zone and later converted a third-and-16 from his own 17 when a fumbled snap allowed Xavier Hutchinson to create separation for the first and only time all game. The third was a 14-play, 74-yard drive where the Texans ran on 13-of-14 plays to seal the game.
The Chiefs should be better than the unit they were in Week 16 now that cornerback Jaylen Watson is back. Since the start of last season, Watson has allowed 0.83 yards per coverage snap and a 54.2% catch rate. He enables Steve Spagnuolo to play more man coverage while focusing on taking away Nico Collins, who averages a monstrous 4.36 yards per route vs. man but was held to 60 yards on 11 targets in the first meeting. With Diontae Johnson (2.27 yards per route run vs. man), Tank Dell (2.26) and Stefon Diggs (1.55) unavailable, Stroud is without three of his top four receivers against man coverage and only has one other WR/TE that averages more than 1 yard per route vs. man (Dalton Schultz, 1.02).
DeMeco Ryans is likely going to try and shorten the game with a heavy dose of Joe Mixon, which is likely why Mixon (Q-ankle) missed practice with a mysterious mid-week addition to the injury report. Stroud passing unders and Houston wide receiver unders should have value even in a negative game script.
Raybon's Pick: Xavier Worthy Anytime TD Scorer (+215, DraftKings)
Worthy leads the team in total TDs with nine and receiving TDs with six, and his three rushing TDs are second to Kareem Hunt. Worthy is second on the team behind Kelce in red-zone routes (70) and red-zone first-read targets (10).
The Texans allow an NFL-high 11.5% TD rate to slot WRs, and Worthy saw season-high 26 slot snaps against them in Week 16, catching an 8-yard score and posting a 7-65-1 line. He has also seen at least two carries in each of his last three games, excluding Week 18, which makes him even more valuable in the TD market.
Bet to: +125
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Commanders vs. Lions
Both defenses are coming off misleading performances.
The Commanders got Marshon Lattimore back and allowed 20 points to the Bucs last week, but the low total was mostly due to a truncated game script and an unforced turnover by Baker Mayfield deep in Bucs territory. The Commanders gave up 2.86 points per drive and 6.45 yards per play, both of which would have ranked dead last during the regular season.
The Lions got LB Alex Anzalone back and held the Vikings to just nine points and 262 total yards despite not forcing a single turnover, and while Anzalone played well, the final score was mostly a result of Sam Darnold going full pumpkin. The Lions had allowed 32.5 points and 428.5 total yards per game in Weeks 14-17, which didn’t seem like something one linebacker alone could fix, and Darnold all but confirmed it by laying another pumpkin-sized egg against the Rams the next week.
The Lions defense under Aaron Glenn is second in man coverage rate at 60.7% and sixth in blitz rate at 33.6%, and hasn’t really deviated from that despite an injury-depleted pass rush and cornerback group. Jayden Daniels isn’t likely to have the same problems as Darnold – he is highly accurate (78.3% Adjusted Completion Rate, sixth), is the position’s second-leading scrambler, and showed last week he won’t crumble under pressure.
Daniels is also good at protecting the football (1.7% Turnover-Worthy Throw Rate, third), so the most likely way for Detroit’s defense to get off the field is with sacks. Daniels’ 8.92% sack rate was the 11th-highest and his 22.3% pressure-to-sack rate was the 12th-highest. However, the Lions finished with a league-low 14.6% pressure-to-sack rate, and that dips to 10.8% over the past five games.
The Commanders posted a historic 87.0% conversion rate on fourth downs this season, and while some of it was due to luck, their early-down efficiency and Daniels’ ability to scramble still suggest they would be a good fourth-down offense. But their fourth-down attempts averaged 3.2 yards to go, and 19 of 23 came with five or fewer yards to go, so getting sacks on third down to put them out of range, or even on early downs to put them behind the chains, is crucial.
Daniels was sacked on only one of 15 pressures by the Bucs last week, and it proved to be the difference in the game, as the Commanders went 3-of-5 on fourth down, all coming with 5 or fewer yards to go. Those conversions helped Washington overcome the lack of a running game (33 carries 82 yards) and keep its struggling defense off the field by winning the time of possession battle, 35:36 to 24:24.
Raybon's Pick: Commanders +9.5
Daniels’ only loss by more than one possession was his very first start, 37-20 to the Bucs, and last week showed us how that would have played out with the current version of Daniels.
I was hoping this gets to +10, but the fact that it hasn’t is a good signal in itself, as Divisional Round 'dogs are 26-10-1 ATS against No. 1 seeds since 2003 when the spread is +10.5 or less, covering by 3.1 points per game.
Bet to: +8
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