We have a number of NFL predictions and picks for the Week 6 slate on Sunday, Oct. 13.
Those NFL picks include the moneyline, picks against the spread and game totals for Jaguars vs. Bears, Browns vs. Eagles, Cardinals vs. Packers, Buccaneers vs. Saints and Falcons vs. Panthers.
We're betting on four underdogs this week as part of our best bets, including one moneyline to start your Sunday. It's not pretty, but our experts are recommending laying six or more points twice on Sunday.
Get our NFL Week 6 picks for Sunday's slate below.
NFL Predictions for Week 6
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Falcons vs. Panthers: Bet This Underdog
By Simon Hunter
Make no mistake, there is a reason why we rarely see a sox-point home divisional 'dog.
You gotta be bad. I mean, really bad — and that’s what we have here.
The Panthers have one of the worst constructed teams in the league. Injuries haven’t been kind to them either, but at what point does the public bet this line up too much?
This has to be at its breaking point. Andy Dalton, though up and down since taking over for Bryce Young, has shown the ability to push the ball down field and keep games close.
This week, the Panthers happen to be facing a Falcons team that is 3-2 but could easily be 0-5. They’ve won by one point, two points and six points in a walk-off overtime win last week.
Don’t be fooled by the Falcons. They’ve yet to play a complete game — yet here the public thinks this number is too low.
Right now in the Action app, 92% of the tickets and 88% of the money is on Atlanta. Even the trends hate this spot for a Kirk Cousins-led Falcons team.
In Cousins’ career, he is 31-43-2 ATS (42%) after a SU win, the second-worst mark of 244 QBs since 2003 ahead of only Jay Cutler.
As a favorite of four points or more in that spot, Cousins is 4-14-1 ATS. Sell high on the Falcons and take the ugly home 'dog.
Pick: Panthers +6 (-110)
By Sam Farley
This NFC South matchup sees the top team in the division face the bottom dweller.
However, the Falcons are fortunate to be sitting on a 3-2 record — despite back-to-back wins, they've really struggled at times.
Six points feels like a big spread when the Falcons are inconsistent on offense and defense. The Panthers aren't a great team by any stretch, but Andy Dalton has the ability to cause problems, and we can't forget that last year these teams went 1-1 against each other.
When you can't trust either team, take the points.
Pick: Panthers +6 (-110)
Charlie Wright's Falcons vs. Panthers Best Bet
The Falcons offense got cooking last week, and they've been doing everything we want to see in a high-scoring team.
Atlanta posted a lightning-quick 24.9 seconds per play in Week 5 and now ranks third in the league. For context, the league leader is usually around 26 seconds per play.
We haven't seen a team be under 25 seconds per play for a full season since 2020. The Falcons are also slinging it. They're sixth in pass attempts, ninth in pass rate and third in neutral pass rate.
Carolina is a dream matchup as the Panthers have allowed 33 points per game, which is four points more than the next-closest team (Cincinnati).
Their battered defense was missing Josey Jewell heading into Week 5 and lost Jadeveon Clowney during the game, adding more names to an extensive list of missing players.
I'm expecting Atlanta to do whatever it wants on offense.
Pick: Falcons Team Total Over 26.5 Points (-120)
Sam Farley's Jaguars vs. Bears Moneyline Bet
By Sam Farley
When it comes to international games, we sometimes need to forget everything we know about form.
That said, the Jags have looked better in the past couple of weeks with Trevor Lawrence showing signs of life and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. looking like a bonafide star.
The Jags might be the road team, but let's be honest, they're always at home in London. They know the city and the routine of playing games in the UK.
That goes a long way in these games and the Jaguars have an advantage heading into this one.
Pick: Jaguars ML (+105)
John LanFranca's Browns vs. Eagles Pick
Nobody wants to back the Browns right now with the entire organization seemingly in turmoil, but I cannot ignore that this line is inflated.
The Cleveland defense ranks third in pass rush win rate, while the Eagles have had major issues protecting Jalen Hurts.
Hurts gets a pass because many of his offensive pieces have been injured, but he has been pressured on more than 40% of his dropbacks in every game this season, including the games right tackle Lane Johnson was in the lineup.
While Deshaun Watson has not played well, the questions surrounding the Eagles defense remain. Philly is 25th in pressure rate this season, recording the second-fewest sacks in the NFL. The Eagles have limited just one opponent to fewer than 20 points in their four games played.
Trends also signal to back the Browns coming off a loss of more than 10 points. Underdogs of more than seven points, coming off a loss of more than 10 points, have gone 20-12(62.5%) against the spread (ATS) over the last three seasons.
Going back even further, that number is stable in this spot, turning a positive ROI in eight of the last 11 seasons if you were to play it blindly.
Pick: Browns +9.5 (-110)
John LanFranca's Cardinals vs. Packers Over/Under Prediction
The handicap for this total is not difficult. We have two top-10 offenses in yards per play, both of whom have the ability to create explosive plays against two defenses in the bottom half of the league in DVOA.
The Packers have the most explosive passing attack in the NFL this season, with 12.8% of their attempts going for 20 or more yards. This is a tremendous matchup for them against an Arizona defense that is 27th in pressure rate.
When the Cardinals fail to get pressure, which is often, they have allowed a near 75% completion percentage. The Green Bay offense should have plenty of time to create explosive plays once again on Sunday against a team that ranks last in pass rush win rate.
The Packers may seem like a side to back with these numbers, but they are only 19th in pressure rate, and have actually surrendered a higher yards per attempt (8.2) than Arizona on plays in which they did not affect the opposing quarterback.
The Green Bay defense is also 26th in explosive run rate allowed, so both James Conner and Kyler Murray will have their chances to generate chunk plays.
There is rain in the forecast, but I am not concerned as I expect both defensive fronts to lose the line of scrimmage if the running games are relied on more heavily. The Cardinals and Packers are 31st and 28th, respectively, in run stop win rate this season.
Pick: Over 47.5 (-110)
Charlie Wright's Buccaneers vs. Saints Over/Under Bet
This should be a slow game with New Orleans looking to limit possessions.
The Saints rank second in run rate and they'll have a backup quarterback at the helm this week with Spencer Rattler, who will be making his first career start. That means a run-heavy offense might be even more focused on the ground game.
Running against Tampa Bay has been challenging, at least for running backs.
The Bucs have allowed the 10th-fewest rushing yards per game to the position. Quarterbacks have had success, but Rattler wasn't much of a runner in college. He totaled 150 rushing yards across two seasons at South Carolina (25 games).
The Saints have been a bend-but-don't-break unit on defense. They're allowing the eighth-fewest points per game, largely due to a league-leading 25% red-zone TD rate.
Tampa Bay is tied for seventh in red-zone drives, but its 13th in red-zone TD rate.
If the Saints can continue limiting offenses to field goals, we should be in a good spot. Both of these teams rank bottom six in pace, so they'll need to be efficient to hit this over.
Pick: Under 41.5 (-110)
