Welp, the Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl is our last game until August, which is the next time you'll hear from me in regards to anything NFL related.
I wish my Ravens were playing in Super Bowl LIX, but fans of other AFC teams can't have nice things during the Patrick Mahomes era. At this point, I've accepted it, so let's focus on the matchup at hand — a rematch of the 2022 Super Bowl that the Chiefs pulled out 38-35.
Can the Eagles flip the script this time around or will the Chiefs become the first team to three-peat in the Super Bowl era? Let's take a look at both sides of the ball for each team and try to find some Super Bowl winners along the way.
Chiefs vs. Eagles Predictions
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When the Eagles Have the Ball
The conversation with this Eagles team has to start with Saquon Barkley, who rushed for 2,005 yards on the season. With how much success he had from start to finish, it's no surprise Philadelphia ran the ball more than any other team at just under a 56% rush rate in the regular season.
The Eagles also have one of the league's best offensive lines, which should benefit from extra rest after dealing with some injuries along the interior in the NFC Championship Game.
Can the Chiefs slow Barkley down? Their run defense has improved statistically year-over-year, having allowed 0.5 yard less per rush. If we remove Week 18 of the regular season, when the Chiefs rested their starters, they finished the regular season ranked 8th in EPA and 11th in Success Rate against opposing ground games compared to 30th and 15th last season, respectively.
However, their efficiency in that department has fallen off a cliff in the second half of the season, which I think can be attributed to the fact that they faced a number of teams with major offensive injuries early on in the season. Just to highlight a few:
- The Bengals without Tee Higgins
- The Falcons lost two starting offensive linemen in the first half
- The Bucs played without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans
- The Chargers were missing both of their stud offensive tackles
- The Saints did not have the services of their two best interior offensive linemen
- The 49ers were down to three backup wide receivers
Even the Ravens were breaking in an offensive line in Week 1 on the road. It's inarguable Kansas City's run defense benefited from some good fortune over the first half of the season, when it ranked in the top five in both EPA and Success Rate.
However, from Weeks 10-17, the Chiefs ranked a more pedestrian 15th in both despite facing a very easy schedule of opposing rush offenses that had an average season-long Success Rate of 23rd (including five of the eight worst) with only the Bills and Panthers ranking above average in either EPA or Success Rate among those seven opponents.
That trend has since continued in the playoffs, with the Chiefs allowing 48.2% of runs to be successful despite playing one of their two games against the Texans, who ranked last in that category. For reference, only the Panthers allowed a worse success rate during the regular season.
Bottom line: The K.C. run defense is more vulnerable than many assume, especially against runs out of 11 personnel, which Philly utilizes on over 80% of its rushing attempts with Barkley averaging a whopping 6.9 yards per carry.
With that said, the Chiefs have one of the best coaching staffs in the NFL, including defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, who has two weeks to prepare for this matchup — and it ain't his first rodeo.
I'm assuming they will sell out to stop Barkley, forcing Jalen Hurts to beat them with his arm. The goal should be to get Philadelphia into known passing situations on third downs where Spags can dial up unique pressures against Hurts, who tends to hold the ball too long. That could lead to a few drive-killing sacks or even a game-changing turnover or two.
Will the Eagles try to throw more on early downs, especially early in the game? That's the chess match and the beauty of these high-leverage playoff games. Game theory porn from start to finish.
In fairness, the Eagles benefited from an easy schedule of opposing defenses this season, including in the playoffs (Commanders, Rams, and Packers). That's about as easy of a path from a resistance standpoint as you'll get en route to a Super Bowl. They were also usually playing from ahead most of the time — things won't be as easy against Spagnuolo in any type of trailing game script.
I'm also very curious to see how much man coverage the Chiefs deploy. They run man at a top-10 rate (while obviously still playing plenty of zone, as do all teams), but Hurts has been exponentially better against man compared to zone this season. A.J. Brown, who also may benefit from the extra rest after dealing with a nagging knee injury, feasts against man coverage and Dallas Goedert led all tight ends in yards per route against those same looks.
From a props perspective, I played Goedert overs for yards and receptions just like I did for the NFC Championship Game. Hurts will need to get the ball out quick in known passing situations; the Chiefs (whose strength lies at cornerback) have really struggled to defend tight ends all year, having allowed nearly six receptions per game and the most yards per target.
Goedert has always showed up in the postseason. He's caught at least five passes in seven of his nine playoff games since becoming a starter and he has cleared 50 yards in six of those contests. Over that stretch, he's averaged six receptions on nearly eight targets for just under 65 yards (median: 5.5 receptions for 59 yards).
On the season, when Goedert, Brown and DeVonta Smith are on the field, it's Goedert who actually ranks second in target share. I expect him to get plenty of looks over the middle of the field, which is where you have to attack this Kansas City defense — that will have plenty of eyes on Barkley — and even a couple of potential quick screen passes.
Barkley will get his as he almost always does, but I believe the Chiefs will get their fair share of stuffs when the Eagles try to run on early downs. How many explosive runs he can break will likely determine who wins this battle and whether the Chiefs can extend their current streak of 18 consecutive playoff games without allowing a 100-yard rusher.
If Barkley doesn't break a bunch of long runs, this will come down to how much the Eagles decide to throw on early downs and how effective Hurts is against Kansas City blitzes, especially on known passing downs. Statistically, Hurts has excelled against the blitz this season, but he also takes too many sacks.
Ultimately, I give the edge to the Eagles offense early, but I wouldn't be surprised if Spags makes a few key adjustments that lead to a few key stops in the second half.
Speaking of which, I bet on the Eagles 1H. I have no interest in fading Patrick Mahomes (who is 8-0 SU and ATS as an underdog or favorite of fewer than three points in the playoffs) and this Chiefs coaching staff in a Super Bowl. They always seem to find a way, as you just can't allow Mahomes to have the ball down one score late. In that scenario, the end result is almost inevitable.
I also trust the Kansas City coaches to make more impactful adjustments during the half — just as I did last year when I bet the 49ers 1H instead of full game. Similar to that matchup, I believe the Eagles have the better overall roster and it could be argued they are better overall at every position group outside of quarterback and kicker (in addition to coaching).
Well, you know what wins close games? Elite quarterback play, top-tier coaching and a reliable kicker. There's a reason why the Chiefs have won 17-straight one-possession games. There's been some luck involved, but most of those wins didn't come by accident.
For what it's worth, the Chiefs have not held a half-time lead in any of the four Super Bowls they have played in over the past six seasons:
- 2019: tied 10-10 at half (won 31-20)
- 2020: down 21-6 at half (lost 31-9)
- 2022: down 24-14 at half (won 38-35)
- 2023: down 10-3 at half (won 25-22)
From a live-betting perspective, I will be looking to trade this game back and forth throughout, especially when Kansas City gets behind, but I'll likely have no issues backing Philly at some nice live underdog numbers.
When the Chiefs Have the Ball
Patrick Mahomes usually does enough to win football games against any team, regardless of the matchup or situation. That's about as obvious of a statement as one can make, but it's almost that simple with the Chiefs, who clearly ascend to another level offensively in the postseason.
With this season specifically, they are as healthy as they've been at the skill positions in quite some time and they clearly break out plenty of new looks and packages for high-leverage games. It's fairly apparent that they do what they need to do in the regular season to get by inferior opponents.
Now, the offensive line still has issues. With Joe Thuney kicking out to left tackle, Mahomes appears to be more comfortable in the pocket — but that has hurt Kansas City's rushing efficiency. And the overall protection from the tackle spots still isn't ideal.
Fortunately for the Chiefs, Mahomes is one of the best at evading sacks and he will face an Eagles defense that doesn't blitz often (16th in sack rate this season). By comparison, they ranked second in 2022 when these teams faced each other in the Super Bowl when Philly finished with zero sacks (although the field conditions certainly played a role in neutralizing the pass rushers on both sides).
Under the tutelage of defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, the Eagles defense was arguably the best in the league in 2024 after finishing the regular season ranked third in EPA and first in Success Rate. The run defense was stout (second in EPA), so I don't think this fledgling Kansas City rushing attack will get much on the ground. I expect the Chiefs to go pass-heavy in this particular matchup — why wouldn't you on the sport's biggest stage with the best quarterback on the planet?
It's not only been Fangio that has helped orchestrate Philadelphia's defensive turnaround. Credit has to go to vice president and general manager Howie Roseman and the front office for addressing the two biggest needs on the roster — cornerback and linebacker — by drafting Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean (who have both been tremendous as rookies), and signing Zack Baun, who has played at an All-Pro level at linebacker.
How much success will Mahomes have throwing the ball against this revamped Eagles lock-down secondary? I'm going to guess he will be have no issues moving the ball methodically down the field, as he's always done in the play0ffs regardless of competition outside of one game against the Bucs when he had a depleted offensive line and also a bizarre second half against the Bengals.
Kansas City has one of the least explosive offenses, but that shouldn't hurt too much in this particular matchup against an Eagles defense that allowed the fewest explosive passing plays in the league. Oddly enough, the Fangio defenses that strived to take away the explosive play changed how teams played Mahomes, which forced the Chiefs into morphing into the methodical, chain-moving offense we see today, so Kansas City should be more than comfortable.
What will make or break who wins the battle on this side of the ball? It likely will come down to red-zone execution. How many of Kansas City's red-zone trips will end up in touchdowns vs. field goals? That might be the key to the entire game.
Historically, Mahomes has had no issues getting to the red zone against Fangio in their previous battles — 37% of Kansas City's drives have gotten there in those games, which matches the number in all other games during the Mahomes era. However, only 37% of those drives ended in touchdowns against Fangio compared to 62% against everybody else.
Will Fangio play the lottery in the red zone by sticking with his cover 6 and cover 4 heavy zone looks without much blitzing? Or will he throw a curve ball and bring more blitzes and mix in more man coverage? That's the chess match I'm looking forward to the most when the Chiefs have the ball.
You can't really count on Mahomes, who has 15 TDs to just one INT in nine playoff games since that second-half disaster against the Bengals, making a mistake if you play the bend-but-don't-break game. So does Fangio just want to hope for red-zone stops and/or wait for one of his defensive linemen to hopefully make a key sack? Or does he switch things up?
I'm assuming the Chiefs will have new looks this week that will specifically target the middle of the field, where Philadelphia is most vulnerable, especially without Nakobe Dean. As far as who the Chiefs will feature outside of Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce, who they clearly want to get the ball to as often as possible, your guess is as good as mine in regards to target and carry share among their other pass catchers and running backs.
From a props perspective, I bet on a Worthy anytime TD again, but my favorite Chiefs offensive prop is a scary one on the surface: Mahomes Under 13.5 longest rush.
I just think this number has gone out too far against an Eagles defense that strives to keep everything in front of them. Could Mahomes get this in one carry on a 3rd and 13-type situation? Sure, we've seen him magically gallop for those often, but I think there's too much value to pass up at this point.
More Numbers To Consider
In the regular season, Mahomes has cleared 13.5 yards on approximately 10% of his rush attempts. As you might expect, he does run more in the playoffs, increasing his scramble rate from 6.3% in the regular season to 8.6% in the postseason (and going from about four carries to 5.5 including kneel downs, which is where his rush attempt is set). However, his rate of runs that clear 13.5 yards remain about the same.
For what it's worth, he's had a rush of at least 14 yards in 35% of his career games, including 9 out of 20 in the playoffs. This season, he's done it in just five of 18 games with only five of his 76 attempts clearing that hurdle (about one out of every 15).
One might argue the Chiefs used more designed runs for Mahomes in the AFC Championship Game than they have all season, which is true, but from what I know with Kansas City, you can expect them to change things up from game to game in the playoffs, especially since the Eagles will likely have focused more on that during their prep.
Lastly, as I mentioned, Philly's defense just doesn't give up big plays by design. That's obviously true against the pass, but also when it comes to quarterback runs.
Fewer than 5% of quarterback runs went for 14-plus yards against the Eagles this season. And even if we just isolate the four games against Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels (the two best scramblers in the NFL), they only exceeded that amount on three of their 30 rush attempts (10%).
If you assume Mahomes' current rush attempts prop of 5.5 is close to fair, which I do, I'll take my chances on him not exceeding 13.5 yards on any one of his (likely) five or six attempts.
And don't forget the Eagles have one of the best ball-possession offenses in the NFL. They could potentially keep Mahomes on the sidelines for long stretches of this game, which would obviously limit the number of opportunities he would have to clear this prop. Let's just hope we avoid as many third and very longs as possible.
For my MVP thoughts, check out our staff picks. As far as final predictions are concerned, I'll go with the predictable answer: Chiefs by 3 after trailing at the half. I'll call it 27-24 Chiefs.
Thanks for reading all of my college football and NFL content all season. See ya'll in August when we get to do it all over again.
Cheers!
