NFL Predictions | Thanksgiving
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12:30 p.m. | |
  | 4:30 p.m. | |
  | 8:20 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
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Packers vs. Lions
Love has thrown at least one interception in six of his last eight starts and seven of 11 career starts overall. He’s at an increased risk of throwing one against the Lions on Thanksgiving for two reasons:
1) The Packers project to face their most negative (pass-heavy) game script of the season.
The spread of +7.5 marks the Packers' largest underdog spread of the season and the first time they’ve been listed as a 'dog of more than +3.5. According to Pro Football Reference, all 10 of Love’s interceptions this season – and all 13 of his career — have come when Green Bay is trailing.
The Lions are averaging 30.0 points per game at home, making them a good bet to put stress on Green Bay's offense to keep up. (The Lions beat the Packers 34-20 at Lambeau Field in Week 4, picking off Love twice in the process.)
It’s also worth pointing out that nine of Love’s interceptions have come in games the Packers ended up losing, which is notable because according to Action Network Director of Research, Evan Abrams, Thanksgiving favorites of 7 or more are 21-2 (91.3%) straight-up since 2006.
2) Love’s top healthy pass-catchers happen to be the ones with whom he has the highest interception rates.
Green Bay is likely to be without TE Luke Musgrave (questionable; kidney), WR Dontayvion Wicks (questionable; concussion/knee) and RB Aaron Jones (doubtful; ankle). They represent Love’s three most-heavily targeted receivers without an interception (all target and interception data via PFF unless otherwise stated).
- Musgrave: 44 targets, 0 INT
- Wicks: 32 targets, 0 INT
- Jones: 27 targets, 0 INT
Those absences will force Love to lean heavily on his top three of Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed — Green Bay will also presumably bring Samori Toure back into the rotation. Collectively, those four receivers have been the target on every single one of Love’s interceptions this season, with Love ironically having more issues with the three second-year players (Watson, Doubs, Toure) than with the rookie (Reed).
- Watson: 37 targets, 5 INT (13.5%)
- Toure: 11 targets, 1 INT (9.1%)
- Doubs: 62 targets, 3 INT (4.8%)
- Reed: 48 targets, 1 INT (2.0%)
I’m projecting Love to throw at least one pick in this spot 68% of the time.
Pick: Jordan Love Over 0.5 Interceptions (-165) | Bet to -210
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Commanders vs. Cowboys
Howell has posted at least 29 (!) completions in each of the last four games, but that just creates a bigger number to hit the under in what is arguably the toughest spot to hit a completions over.
The Cowboys allow the fourth-lowest completion percentage (59.4%) and the second-fewest completions per game (16.7). That’s not because opponents are avoiding their vaunted pass defense; it’s because they are one of the top ball-control offenses in the league, clocking in at third in time of possession (32:30). This limits the amount of plays Cowboys opponents can run, with Dallas allowing just 57.8 plays per game, the second-fewest in the league. In Jerry World, that numbers dips even lower to 53.5.
The matchup is also tough for Howell. Per FTN Fantasy, the Cowboys play the highest rate of man coverage — Howell’s completion rate versus man (59.1%) is over 13 points lower than it is versus zone (72.5%). Man coverage also lends itself to bigger chunk plays when a pass is completed, which also works to limit completions. Howell is averaging 10.3 yards per completion against zone coverage, but 11.4 yards per completion versus man.
The Cowboys are also able to limit completions by way of not letting Howell get the ball off at all. Dallas’ ferocious pass rush — led by Micah Parsons — is second in sack rate (10.5%), and Howell is on pace to break the NFL’s all-time sack record of 76. He has been sacked 51 times, 13 more than any other QB. Howell’s four lowest completion totals this season have all come in the games with his four highest sack totals.
Howell’s streak of 29-plus completions in four straight have come against defenses that allow the third-most plays (Seattle), the sixth-most plays (Patriots), 12th-most plays (Giants), and the Eagles, who allow only the 19th-most plays but the most completions (26.5). The Cowboys, meanwhile, have allowed a season high of 22 completions – and that was their only game allowing 20 or more.
The Cowboys’ completions allowed by game are: 17, 12, 17, 16, 18, 22, 18, 17, 14, 16.
I have Howell projected for 24 completions rather than his usual astronomical number.
Pick: Sam Howell Under 25.5 Completions (-110) | Bet to Under 24.5
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49ers vs. Seahawks
It’s rare I show value on a heavy road favorite, but the Seahawks are running into the 49ers at precisely the wrong time.
Geno Smith is dealing with what the Seahawks are calling a triceps contusion that forced him to miss a few drives in the fourth quarter against the Rams on Sunday, and it’s possible – likely, even – that he will be operating at less than 100% on Thanksgiving night.
Despite playing their most important game of the season on a short week, backup Drew Lock reportedly took first-team reps at practice on Tuesday. (In the back of my head, I wonder if Smith was truthful about believing a handoff to Zach Charbonnet was the best play call to get into field-goal range, or if he couldn’t bear to make a fifth consecutive throw in the span of 60 seconds due to the injury).
A healthy Smith isn’t necessarily a needle-mover in this matchup. In three meetings against the 49ers last season, Smith led the Seahawks to an 0-3 record SU and ATS while the offense averaged just 14.3 points. Smith averaged just 205.0 net passing yards per game and had as many touchdown passes as turnovers (3:3).
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The 49ers defense is a brutal matchup for the Seahawks offense for a couple of reasons.
Firstly, Seattle's offense lives on big plays, clocking in at sixth in explosive play rate (11.5%), but the 49ers defense is No. 1 in the NFL with an 8.1% explosive play rate allowed. When the Seahawks aren’t getting big plays, they struggle to score due to an inability to convert on third down (31.7% third-down conversion rate ranks 30th) and in the red zone (48.7%, 22nd).
The 49ers also have an embarrassment of riches at pass rusher after acquiring Chase Young and Randy Gregory, to go along with Nick Bosa, Javon Hargrave, Arik Armstead and company. In the two games since acquiring Young, the 49ers have generated pressure on an absurd 43.0% of opposing dropbacks (pressure data via PFF unless otherwise stated). Smith has struggled mightily against pressure, with his yards per attempt average dropping from 8.3 in a clean pocket to 5.1 under pressure.
Offensively, the key for the 49ers is having the quartet of Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and LT Trent Williams healthy at the same time. This will be the eighth game all four enter healthy.
In the past seven, the 49ers are averaging 30.7 points per game and a +17.6 point differential. When at least one of them is out, the Niners dip to 21.3 points per game and a -0.4 point differential. Those four give Brock Purdy the opportunity to dice up a Seahawk defense that ranks 19th in DVOA overall and 25th against the pass, per FTN Fantasy.
The 49ers are in the top six in third-down conversion rate (44.3%) and red-zone conversion rate (60.0%) on offense while the Seahawks are bottom five in third-down conversion rate (44.0%) and red-zone conversion rate (63.0%) allowed on defense.
All seven of San Francisco’s wins this season have come by at least seven points, with six of seven coming by at least 13. Dating back to the start of last season and including the postseason, 20 of the 22 49ers wins have come by at least seven points, and 18 of 22 have come by at least eight points, including 13-of-14 wins by seven-plus and 11-of-14 wins by eight-plus with Purdy as the starter. Over that span, Purdy is 5-0 SU and ATS in the division, winning by an average of 15.4 points per game (including victories over the Seahawks by eight and 18).
Per Evan Abrams, favorites on Thanksgiving are 36-18 (67%) ATS, which includes a 19-6 (75%) ATS mark for road favorites and a 28-13 (68%) mark for public favorites, which is notable because the 49ers have attracted 80% of the tickets at the time of publication.
The 49ers’ point differential of +12.2 gives them a Pythagorean win-loss record of 8-2, suggesting they’ve been underachieving this season at 7-3. Historically, this has been a great spot to target teams underachieving relative to their Pythagorean win total.
Per our Action Labs data, road favorites underperforming their Pythagorean win total entering Week 11 or 12 are 55-26-3 (68%) ATS since 2005, covering by 4.9 points per game.
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