Our crew's top Week 15 NFL predictions include the Steelers vs Panthers spread, Lions vs Jets over/under, and two player props for Sunday's early afternoon games.
Be sure to compare their betting predictions to the latest NFL odds at popular sportsbooks so you can lock in the best value.
Week 15 NFL Predictions
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Brandon Anderson: We've been riding the Steelers since T.J. Watt's return a month ago. I see no reason to stop now.
Pittsburgh's defense is third in Football Outsiders' DVOA with Watt on the field, ranking top five against both the run and the pass. And on the other side of the ball, the Steelers are running the ball well and playing genuinely good football. And though Kenny Pickett is out, Mitch Trubisky has played well enough, he might not be a real downgrade from the rookie.
Everyone is excited about Carolina right now, but the underlying numbers tell us this team hasn't really been a whole lot better under Steve Wilks than Matt Rhule. The defense has always been solid, but the offense is still pretty bad, and Sam Darnold has no shot against this Steel Curtain. He's 4-8 (33%) against the spread (ATS) as a favorite and has no business being a favorite.
This isn't a traditional Rah Rah Mike Tomlin spot. He's 40-17-1 (70%) ATS as an underdog from Week 5 on, but that spot is better at home, in the division, and after a big loss. This is none of those things, but Tomlin is a perfect 6-0 both ATS and straight up as an underdog after a division loss in that spot.
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John LanFranca: The Jets defense is playing at an elite level, ranking second in yards per play allowed on the season and third in Football Outsiders’ DVOA since Week 9. Six of their last eight games have gone under the total, and with the re-insertion of Zach Wilson, I expect a conservative game plan that leans heavily on their dominant defense.
With all of the chatter that the Lions have begun their playoff run, I am not quite sold their offense is ready to take their show on the road.
Jared Goff has thrown only two touchdowns away from the Ford Field this season, as the Lions have averaged 18.4 points per game. That said, both of their 31-point performances over the past few weeks away from home came against two of the league’s four worst defensive units, the Giants and Bears. The Lions have also played against two of the top-ranked defenses when they traveled to New England and Dallas in Weeks 5 and 7, when they managed to score six total points combined.
Neither offense will have an easy time putting points on the board Sunday. Play the under down to 43.
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Sam Farley: Sunday features the 10-3 Cowboys against the 5-8 Jaguars, but this matchup won’t be as lopsided as some expect with the Jags’ playoff hopes still alive.
We know all about this incredible Cowboys defense and how effective they've been — and yes, we know Micah Parsons should be Defensive Player of the Year. But this isn't the Trevor Lawrence we saw earlier in the season.
Since Week 9, Lawrence has had 1,362 passing yards, 10 touchdowns, a league-high 71.8% completion percentage, and the second-best passer rating (111.7).
Whisper it quietly, but Lawrence looks the real deal right now. He’s playing like the kid who got drafted first overall in 2021 and was acclaimed as the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck. This is a young man finding his feet in the pro game, both as a leader and as a quarterback, and he isn't stopping now.
Lawrence’s passing yard line is as low as 246.5, but I'd back the over all the way to 255.5.
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Sam Farley: The Chiefs opened as 10-point favorites, but the spread is now up to 14.5, so we have to look elsewhere to find value on them.
That leads us to Isiah Pacheco — the Chiefs’ rookie running back who was drafted in the seventh round of this year's draft. He's had only three touchdowns so far, but now he has a dream matchup.
The Texans have allowed 165.8 rushing yards per game, and in that time, they've allowed 16 rushing touchdowns. That's more than one per game, and Pacheco is likely to be the man who seizes that opportunity, with Jerick McKinnon used more in the passing game.
