Here are my betting thoughts for every game on Sunday's Week 11 slate. To get all of my picks, follow me in the Action App.
NFL Week 11 Predictions
It looks as if the team rallied around interim head coach Jeff Saturday last week. It also helped to get Matt Ryan back under center in addition to a healthy Jonathan Taylor in the backfield. The underperforming offensive line also had its best game of the season, paving the way for Taylor's 83 yards before contact
This is also a brutal spot for the Eagles, who hit the road on a short week following a loss to the Commanders on Monday Night Football. The defense has to be especially gassed after Washington ran an absurd 83 plays.
I assume the Colts will come in with a similar game plan as the Commanders, who played keep away with a heavy rush attack. That can work against a Philadelphia run defense that will once again not have the services of rookie Jordan Davis.
Pick: Colts +7 |
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With Davis on the field, the Eagles have allowed 3.87 yards per carry. Without him, that number balloons to 5.1 yards For reference, only four defenses have allowed north of five yards per carry on the season. Philly signed a pair of veteran reinforcements, but I'm not sure how much you can expect from either on Sunday.
The Eagles will also be without slot corner Avonte Maddox and stud tight end Dallas Goedert, who will be sorely missed against a Colts zone-heavy defense that struggles to cover opposing tight ends (28th DVOA). On a related note, wide receiver AJ Brown has been much less effective against zone throughout his career.
Philadelphia is undoubtedly one of the best teams in the NFC, but it has played a bottom five schedule to date and has some additional turnover regression likely looming. On the season, Philadelphia leads the league with a +13 turnover margin; Minnesota comes in next at +8, while the Colts have the second-worst in the NFL at -9.
Plus, catching a touchdown at home with a lower total will always pique my interest, especially in this season's lower scoring environment.
Notable Nugget: In 2022, underdogs have gone a shocking 46-19 (70.8%) against the spread (ATS) in games with a total of 47 or fewer points, covering by an average margin of 4.75 points per game.
Coming off that aforementioned Monday night victory, Washington also finds itself in a tough spot this weekend. After pulling off an upset at Philadelphia (that took some good fortune), the Commanders will have a short week of preparation and rest before its second straight road game — this time a non-conference matchup against lowly Houston.
More importantly, I think we are getting line value around the biggest key number (3) when it comes to betting the NFL. If Washington had lost last week and Houston had won, this line certainly would've been around 2, which is where I project it. Instead, we can get a cheap +3 or +3.5. That's a major difference, especially in a game with a low total of 40.5.
I know I'm speaking in hypotheticals, but I don't think either result last week warranted any major adjustment for either team. The Texans should've beat the Giants. They dominated the game statistically, but could only muster one touchdown in six red zone trips. Meanwhile, Washington certainly benefited from turnover luck and a few fortunate calls.
Washington has been better with Taylor Heinicke, but now you're asking him to win by four-plus on the road. I'm happy to pay to make him prove it, even though I do think the loss of cornerback Derek Stingley matters for Houston. The gunslinger Heinicke is still overdue for a few turnovers.
Notable Nugget: Since 2003, teams playing an opponent with a winning percentage of 40% or less following an upset win as a double-digit underdog have gone just 12-21-1 ATS (36.4%).
I don't see a ton of value in this line. I'm also not a fan of laying double digits in the NFL, especially this season. However, I did pair the Ravens moneyline in a parlay with the Patriots moneyline, which I'll get into next.
Lamar Jackson has faced nine teams in his career coming off extended rest (eight days or more). Ravens are 7-2 SU/ATS, covering the spread by 8.3 PPG.
Notable Nugget: In nine starts after extended rest (eight-plus days), Lamar Jackson has gone 7-2 SU/ATS, covering by 8.3 PPG. Meanwhile, John Harbaugh is 9-5 ATS following a bye, covering by 6.5 points per game.
The Jets defense is legit. They put any doubts I had surrounding the quality of competition with that home victory over the Bills. Rookie cornerback Sauce Gardner is a future All-Pro and the defensive front can generate pressure without blitzing.
The New York defense will not make life easy for a Patriots offense that remains very limited in the passing game. That's why I chose New England moneyline instead of needing Mac Jones and company to win by margin in a divisional game with a total of 37.5.
In my opinion, the difference will be Zach Wilson making a few more critical mistakes than Jones. The Patriots lead the league in pressure rate, which spells doom for the second-year signal caller out of BYU.
When under pressure in 2022, Wilson has completed just 11-of-52 pass attempts for 158 yards with one touchdown and five interceptions. That's a pitiful three yards per attempt to go along with a league-high 14.3% turnover worthy throw percentage.
Notable Nugget: The Patriots have won 13 consecutive games over the Jets, who haven't won in this series since Ryan Fitzpatrick beat Tom Brady in 2015.
However, I actually bet the under in this matchup between two of the most run-heavy and slowest pace teams in the NFL.
Neither defense is any good, but both struggle even more against the pass. However, they each should get a breather in that department this week against a pair of poor passing offenses. Consequently, the defenses can dedicate more bodies to stopping each dangerous opposing rush offense.
Additionally, both defenses practice against mobile quarterbacks every day and also utilize a high frequency of zone, which will help in that department.
In a game where the clock should be racing throughout, it may only take a few red zone stops to keep this under the total.
Notable Nugget: Last week, the Bears became the first team in NFL history to lose three straight games in which they scored 29 or more points.
Pick: Under 49.5 |
The Browns, who are also used to playing in tough conditions, have one of the best rush offenses in the NFL. Meanwhile, Buffalo has really struggled to get its ground game going (21st DVOA). Getting to face Cleveland's reeling defense indoors should work out much better.
Even with a higher total, I think this is a great spot to tease the Bills down through 7 and 3. I still have Buffalo power rated as the best team in the NFL and they should bounce back here after two straight losses.
Notable Nugget: Since 2020, teams to lose by 20-plus points have gone 70-49 ATS (58.8%) in their next game, including 54-30 ATS (64.3%) as an underdog.
This is a potentially tricky spot for the Giants, who have a date with Dallas this upcoming Thursday on Thanksgiving Day. I wouldn't be shocked if they came out a little flat against a Lions team that finally won a road game under Dan Campbell.
The Lions offense should have all of its most important pieces on Sunday, which is a good sign for a unit that has been very productive when healthy. The defense is still among the worst in the league, but is improving a bit with some of their young pieces starting to come into their own.
It's Lions or nothing here for me, especially if you can get +3.5. I personally opted to tease Detroit up above a touchdown with the 49ers on Monday night.
Notable Nugget: Giants home unders are 16-1 over their past 17 games in New York.
Notable Nugget: The Rams 2-6-1 ATS record marks the worst ATS record through nine games for a defending Super Bowl Champion since the Green Bay Packers started 1-6-2 ATS way back in 1997.
It looks as if the Broncos offense — already incapable of building any margin — will potentially be missing seven starters from the Week 1 depth chart. Injuries have decimated both sides of the ball, but especially along the offensive line and skill positions. I'm not sure things can get worse on that end, but they may.
Notable Nugget: If the season ended today, the Broncos would become the first team to finish with the fewest points scored and fewest points allowed since the 1946 Steelers.
First of all, it's a great spot after the Cowboys inexplicably blew a two-touchdown lead heading into the fourth quarter for the first time in franchise history. Meanwhile, the Vikings pulled out on the most improbable wins of the past decade. In fact, from a post-game win expectancy perspective, that was the second-luckiest victory since 2014, trailing only Miami's win over Baltimore earlier this season.
That has been the theme of the season for the Vikings, who have been the luckiest team in the league by any metric. They have now won seven straight games by one-possession — many of which they were outplayed in statistically.
Pick: Cowboys -1.5 |
Minnesota also has some likely looming negative turnover regression, as it currently sits with the second-highest(+8) in the NFL. The Vikings have recovered 75% of their own and 62% of opponent fumbles. A number of advanced metrics also suggest Cousins may have some overdue interceptions coming his way, especially under pressure, which I'll get to in a bit.
No matter how you slice it, Minnesota profiles as an average to slightly above average team. Meanwhile, Dallas profiles as a fringe top-5 club.
From a DVOA perspective, the Vikings rank 17th, while the Cowboys rank fourth. And that doesn't take into account quarterback injuries, which have certainly benefited SKOL much more than Dallas this season.
From an EPA perspective, if you remove turnovers, Minnesota's offense ranks 16th and its defense ranks 17th. In terms of yards per play, it averages 5.4 (16th) and allows 5.9 (28th) for a net of -0.5. Meanwhile, the Cowboys sit at +0.4.
If you look at Football Outsiders' Estimated Wins, Dallas ranks third with 7.7. That's more than three additional wins than Minnesota's 4.5 (17th) even with Cooper Rush starting six games.
You get the point.
I also believe this sets up as a fairly favorable matchup for the Cowboys. The offense should have no issues sustaining drives against a very vulnerable defense that ranks in the bottom-three in drive success rate.
On the other side of the ball, Dallas should generate plenty of pressure on Cousins. It ranks second in the NFL in that department and will face a Vikings offensive line that has allowed the third-highest pressure rate. On top of that, Mine could be without stud left tackle Christian Darrisaw (concussion), who PFF actually has as its highest graded offensive lineman in 2022.
Cousins' numbers under pressure should make Dan Quinn salivate. He's averaging only 5.1 YPA (28th out of 30 qualified quarterbacks, just ahead of Zach Wilson) with seven big time throws and nine turnover worthy plays.
Yet, he has thrown eight touchdowns to only two interceptions under pressure. The insanely talented Justin Jefferson helps but Cousins has certainly been fortunate.
Ultimately, these offenses profile pretty similarly, but Dallas has the much better defense and special teams. I also expect a maximum effort here in a great situational spot for the Cowboys. They should have much more urgency following a loss that dropped them into third place in their division.
In contrast, the Vikings come off one of their most improbable and biggest wins in recent history that put them five games up in the division.
Pittsburgh's defense gave the Cincinnati offensive line hell in their first meeting. With TJ Watt now back from injury, that could play out once again, especially with no Chase, who torched the Steelers in that game. It also looks as if safety Minkah Fitzpatrick will go, which helps on the back end.
And again, catching over a field goal in a divisional matchup with a low total is just very intriguing, especially this season.
Notable Nugget: Mike Tomlin is 16-3-3 ATS as a home underdog in his career, making him the most-profitable head coach as a home dog over the past 20 years. Believe it or not, the Steelers have actually won 14 of those 22 games outright.
