Our staff is focused on three of Sunday's biggest games for its NFL predictions in Week 12.
First, we'll focus on Lions vs. Colts in the early slate. Anthony Richardson is back under center for the Colts and was impressive last week in his return to action as they beat the Jets. Now, though, will be a tougher task in keeping up with the NFL's best offense and the clear favorite in the NFC.
Then, we move to the late slate for a pair of huge games in the NFC. First, the 49ers will be without Brock Purdy and Nick Bosa against the Packers, who are coming off a dramatic win over the Bears. Then, first place in the NFC West will be on the line in the Pacific Northwest, where the Seahawks host the Cardinals.
Let's dive into our experts' NFL picks for this weekend's Sunday slate.
NFL Predictions, Week 12 Picks
- Lions vs. Colts Pick Against the Spread: Colts +7.5
- Lions vs. Colts Over/Under Prediction: Over 49.5 (-115)
- Patriots vs. Dolphins Pick: Dolphins -7 (-110)
- Packers vs. 49ers Pick: Packers -5.5 (-110)
- Cardinals vs. Seahawks Pick: Seahawks +1 (-110)
Lions vs. Colts
Colts +7.5
By Simon Hunter
This pick will not be shocking to anyone who has followed me. I will almost always bet the Colts when they're a big home 'dog.
Historically, the Colts have been a tough team to cover a big number against at home. Indianapolis is 13-2 against the spread (ATS) when getting six or more points over the last 30 years.
Now we get a spot to back that trend and sell high on the most-talked-about team in the NFL right now, and there are trends that say it's the time to do so.
In November or later since 2003, teams that are averaging 33 or more points per game and have a win percentage of .900 or higher are 12-25-3 ATS, including 4-16-1 when coming off a double-digit win.
Also, for all of his flaws, Anthony Richardson has been a good quarterback to back in the NFL. He's 8-3 ATS in his NFL career and has covered the spread in five straight games. As an underdog, he's 6-2 ATS.
This is also a great matchup for Richardson since the Lions have had trouble defending mobile quarterbacks this season. Add in the Colts' top-three run-blocking offensive line, and it's easy to see why this team will be able to move the ball against Detroit.
This one might end up being a shootout, which isn't a problem for us since we're getting the hook at +7.5.
I'm even going to sprinkle a bit on the Colts moneyline since it's my favorite 'dog of the week.
Pick: Colts +7.5
Over 49.5 (-115)
Simply betting the over in every indoor game involving Jared Goff over the last three seasons has netted a positive 13.1% return on investment.
It's no secret the Lions offense is absolutely humming right now, having scored 24 or more points in seven consecutive games and averaging 39.1 points per game over that span. Sure, the Lions offense is better at home, but those aforementioned numbers over that seven-game span included four road games.
According to Sharp Football, the Lions have converted 82.1% of their red-zone possessions into points since Week 4, which is the second-highest rate in the NFL in that span.
Goff and the Lions offense should have plenty of scoring opportunities as the Colts play Cover 3 at one of the highest rates in the league. The Lions quarterback shreds that coverage and is averaging more than 10 yards per attempt while completing 77% of attempts.
When the Colts have the ball, there's plenty of reason for optimism following the best game of Anthony Richardson's career. He was much more efficient passing the football last week against the Jets and he seemed more relaxed knowing that his job security is no longer a concern.
Facing a Lions defense that plays the highest rate of man coverage in the NFL, Richardson should also have ample opportunities to extend drives with his legs.
It's always in the reasonable range of outcomes for Detroit to score 35 or more points. Regardless, I like the Colts to post at least 23 in a competitive game that features plenty of scoring.
I'd play this up to the key number of 51.
Pick: Over 49.5 (-115)
Patriots vs. Dolphins
Dolphins -7 (-110)
By Sam Farley
Winning the AFC East isn't mathematically impossible, but it may as well be for the Dolphins. That said, they're 4-6, on a two-game winning streak and get a great matchup here as they look to further their playoff push.
Tua Tagovailoa is playing well — and is healthy — so the Dolphins offense has begun to sparkle. Tyreek Hill is beginning to look like himself again and the run game has also reverted back to it's brilliant best.
The Patriots won't be able to keep up with Miami, which regularly takes care of inferior opposition at home when Tagovailoa is under center.
Pick: Dolphins -7 (-110)
49ers vs. Packers
Packers -5.5 (-110)
Sharp bettors flocked to play the 49ers as an underdog to open the week, but the line has moved from Packers -1.5 at the start of the week to -5.5 with news that Brock Purdy and Nick Bosa are out. Also, LT Trent Williams is questionable.
Potentially taking away the best player in the trenches for the 49ers on both sides of the ball is worth more than one point to the line. Obviously, Bosa is key to the 49ers' pass rush, ranking fourth in the league with 39 pass rush wins this season, according to ESPN.
Offensively, it looks like it'll be Brandon Allen under center for San Francisco.
George Kittle is returning from his hamstring injury, but he could easily be at less than 100%. The Seahawks secondary seemingly dared the 49ers to beat their man coverage last week, and that plan worked out well for Seattle.
Jordan Love is the quarterback who is now healed up and moving around much better post-bye week.
The Packers offense is balanced but to enter Super Bowl contender status, Love needs to be the version we saw in the latter part of 2023. Averaging a season-high 15 yards per pass attempt last week in the Packers' win over the Bears has me believing things are now trending up for Love, who we really haven't seen healthy since Week 1.
Pick: Packers -5.5 (-110)
Cardinals vs. Seahawks
Seahawks +1 (-110)
By Matt Trebby
This is mostly a fade of the Cardinals, who I have to admit have impressed this season. Some of Arizona’s wins have been rather lucky (49ers and Chargers), but it has delivered impressive wins over the Bears and Jets at home of late.
There’s a difference there, though. Two of those teams are fighting for the playoffs and the other two are hoping for the best draft pick possible.
Ultimately, this is a fade of Kyler Murray. Coming off a bye in his career, Murray has led the Cardinals to a 1-4 record against the spread (ATS) and straight-up. In those games, the Cardinals have failed to cover by 9.1 points per game.
In total, Murray has started 14 games on extended rest and is 5-9 ATS.
Also, Murray has played 28 games in his career with the Cardinals above .500. Arizona is 12-16 ATS, but it’s just 4-12 in November or later in those spots.
For more trends like this, check out Evan Abrams' NFL Week 12 betting primer.
Pick: Seahawks +1 (-110)
