NFL Odds & Picks
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Simon Hunter: Good old-fashioned battle of teacher vs. student. Once best friends, now foes.
Kyle Shanahan and Mike McDaniel coached together for 14 years and go back further than that. How does one back that in a spread? Hell if I know.
What I can tell you is Miami is without LT Terron Armstead and RT Austin Jackson is doubtful. On the other side, Arik Armstead is fully healthy. Miami already had a shaky offensive line. Take away those two starters against a top-three pass rush, and this is a nightmare matchup for Tua Tagovailoa, who has struggled with holding onto the ball too long.
Miami had a nice run against bottom-of-the-league defenses over the past couple weeks. The 49ers' offense will be able to run the ball this week against Miami’s front seven while getting pressure on Tagovailoa with just four pass rushers.
It’s not surprising that the public has come in heavy on the Dolphins, who have played well of late. They’re overlooking how important the offensive line has been to the Dolphins’ success this season.
I’d bet the 49ers up to -4.5.
Pick: 49ers -4.5 |
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Nick Bretwisch: Going a bit into the dumpster here for another Adjusted Expected Total Yards (AETY) Model edge, but we've been riding a bit of a hot streak here, so let's roll. This week, we're taking advantage of what should be a fantastic game script for the Miami Dolphins passing attack and rolling with slot receiver Trent Sherfield over 2.5 receptions.
Sherfield has been quietly active in the Miami passing game over the past three weeks and enters a fantastic matchup against the 49ers' cover-3 and cover-4 zone defense. In these coverages, Sherfield's target share has significantly exceeded his baseline numbers and the 49ers rank 31st in pass defense DVOA to opposing tertiary pass-catchers. As long as this game remains competitive and a pass-heavy script for the Dolphins, Sherfield should be clear of this number by the end of the third quarter.
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John LanFranca: Sometimes as a handicapper, you have to embrace the uncomfortable feeling of betting on bad football teams. The Rams' season is all but over when it comes to anything meaningful in the standings, but I definitely did not see a team that had given up last week in Arrowhead Stadium.
The Seahawks' defense has been up and down this season, but last week was one of their worst defensive performances of the season. Seattle gave up an astounding 576 total yards off of its bye week, which is not a good sign for its playoff aspirations moving forward. Prior to the Seahawks' bye, the struggling Buccaneers offense put 419 total yards against this defense. Seattle is now 25th on the season on defense, allowing 5.6 yards per play.
I am not the only one expecting an inspired performance from Los Angeles. At the time of writing this, 60% of the bets have come in on the favored Seahawks, yet the line opened at 8.5 and is now down to the key number of 7. I wouldn't play this anywhere below a full touchdown, so be sure to buy a half point if the number creeps even lower to 6.5. The fact that this line keeps moving in the Rams favor is another sign the sharp bettors in the industry are on the right side.
I'd bet the Rams no lower than +7, so play an alt line if you have to. This number moved to +6.5 on Sunday morning.
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Anthony Dabbundo: It might be the ugliest underdog play of the entire day, but the Seattle Seahawks aren't good enough to be laying more than a touchdown on the road against anyone. Despite the medley of injuries for the Rams — they're playing without Cooper Kupp, Matthew Stafford and Aaron Donald — it's still a divisional home game against a rival.
The Rams still have the No. 3 run defense by Rushing Success Rate allowed and rank third in EPA per rush this year. The defensive line should be able to keep Kenneth Walker and the Seahawks ground game in check and prevent them from running up the score in this game.John Wolford gets the start for the Rams and as bad as he is, the Seattle defense isn't nearly as good as they've played at points in this season either.
Much noise has been made about the Seattle improvements on defense, but they're still just 26th in EPA per play allowed and just conceded 40 to the Raiders last week. Seattle may win this game and it might never even really be in doubt, but Pete Carroll is historically ultra conservative with a lead.
The backdoor will remain open if needed late, and this is a great spot to buy the bottom of the market on the Rams. A divisional home underdog of 7+ against the Seahawks? Consider how much market respect that's showing for a Seattle team that was expected to win 5-6 games this season.
I'd play the Rams at +7 or better.
