Action Network's Predictive Analytics team has crunched the numbers — the result is six NFL predictions for Week 2.
The data-driven picks include player props — including key players like Brian Robinson and and Tre Tucker — a spread pick for Colts vs Packers and much more.
NFL Predictions Week 2: Data-Driven Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL predictive analytics staff is targeting for NFL Week 2 Sunday. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific data-driven NFL prediction discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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  | 1 p.m. | |
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  | 1 p.m. | |
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  | 4:25 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Billy Ward's Colts vs Packers Best Bet: Jump on the Colts Spread
By Billy Ward
Reports that Jordan Love “has a shot” at playing in Week 2 has caused this line to start moving back the other way, from -3 to -2.5.
I’m not buying it. The initial report was Love would miss 4-6 weeks due to an MCL sprain, and this reeks of “coach speak” trying to force the opposition to game plan against multiple quarterbacks. Love is listed as doubtful on the Packers' official injury report and has not logged a practice all week.
His backup, Malik Willis, is bad — like started eight games and didn’t throw a single TD pass bad. Despite that, we’re getting a line inside of the key number of three on Caesars, largely based on optimism that Love could suit up.
I’d grab this number under -3 anywhere possible.
Pick: Colts -2.5 (-120)
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Nick Giffen's Giants vs Commanders Best Bet: Value on Brian Robinson
By Nick Giffen
The Commanders made their plans clear in Week 1 that Brian Robinson is going to get the bulk of the rushing work. He picked up 12 carries to Austin Ekeler’s two, including both carries inside the 10-yard line.
Yes, he’ll still have to deal with Jayden Daniels in the red zone, but there should be more than enough to go around against the Giants, who ranked 25th in defensive DVOA in Week 1 despite facing the Vikings and QB Sam Darnold.
The Commanders’ team total of 21.5 implies they’re in line for between 2-3 TDs on average. After getting a bit unlucky last week in the scoring department (20 points vs 24.6 expected), I’d lean toward the Commanders going over their team total.
As a result, Robinson is our fifth-highest projected edge in Anytime TD odds.
Pick: Brian Robinson Anytime TD (+140)
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Nick Giffen's Raiders vs Ravens Best Bet: Tre Tucker Hype Train
By Nick Giffen
I’m going right back to the well with Tre Tucker receiving props for Week 2:
- Over 17.5 receiving yds (-115 at Bet365) to win 1 unit
- Anytime TD (+850 FanDuel) 0.25u
- 1st TD +4000 (DraftKings/BetMGM) 0.1u
- 2+ TDs +13000 (FanDuel) 0.05u
As I mentioned last week, Tucker has been a stalwart in his young career against Cover 1, and in Week 1 the Ravens ran the third-most cover 1 in the league.
Last week, I was just hoping Tucker played well north of 30% of the snaps to make it a good bet. He ended up playing 78% of the snaps; he trailed fellow wideout Davante Adams by just six routes run. That makes Tucker the clear WR3 in this offense.
As such, I’m projecting him a shade under 30 yards median, making the 16.5 line clear value. I certainly don’t mind if you want to add on Tucker ladders as well.
I also like his Anytime TD at anything +650 or longer. We get the added benefit of Tucker returning punts as a potential TD boost.
Pick: Tre Tucker Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
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Billy Ward's Saints vs Cowboys Best Bet: Points Aplenty?
By Billy Ward
The highest total on the slate this weekend belongs to Lions–Bucs, which checks in at a healthy 51.5. While that might be a fair representation of the median outcome in that game, I’m not seeing much room for it to go over the mark.
That’s because the somewhat heavily favored Lions are more than happy to establish the run and bleed clock once they get in control of the score. Their Week 1 contest against the Rams went under the total despite going to overtime, with the Lions slow-playing much of the second half.
That leaves room for another contender, and at the listed odds I like Cowboys-Saints. It all comes down to how much New Orleans can push the Cowboys to stay aggressive. The Saints scored an absurd 47 points in Week 1, some of which was due to a weak opponent – but some might be on their own merits.
That gives this one massive upside thanks to the Cowboys' explosive offense that the other games in the range lack.
Pick: Saints-Cowboys Highest Scoring Game (+1000)
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Nick Giffen's Chargers vs Panthers Best Bet: Panthers First-Drive Picks
By Nick Giffen
My two first-drive plays for this game:
- Carolina Offensive TD +600 (0.5u)
- Carolina Field-Goal Attempt +500 (0.5u)
Carolina’s first drive last week lasted all of one play, as QB Bryce Young threw an interception to start the season for the Panthers.
However, the Saints had one of the toughest pass defenses in the NFL last year, leading the league in passes defended. The Chargers should be an easier task.
Carolina scored just 10 points against the Saints, but it should have scored 17.1 points by Expected Score, which powers our Luck Rankings. The Chargers meanwhile, should have given up 20.2 points to the Raiders instead of the 10 they allowed. That’s what leads Carolina to the second-highest Luck Team Total of Week 2
The Panthers have scored on only two first drives in Young’s career, but based off the ending field position of their drives, they’ve been quite unlucky to not come away with more opening-drive points.
A quick model that plots ending first drive field position vs. percentage of those drives that scored shows that Carolina should have scored on about 10% more of its drives. I have faith it can do even better under Dave Canales' offense.
Caesars is offering some nice value as FanDuel has these lines at +260 for a TD and +370 for a field-goal attempt. My model is in line with FanDuel’s odds.
DraftKings has +500 for a TD and +400 for a field-goal attempt, which is still value if you don’t have access to Caesars.
Pick: 1st Drive Result: TD (+600), FG Attempt (+500)
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Billy Ward's Steelers vs Broncos Best Bet: How to Fade These Offenses
By Billy Ward
This is a pure numbers play for me, derived from my data set of the likelihood of three straight scores based on the spread and total.
In my sample, all games with a total under 40 hit the “no” prop around 53% of the time. The average total in those games is 38.3, meaning the 36.5 total here is even lower than the typical game with a <40 total.
We also have a fairly tight spread of just 2.5 points, which also pushes up the odds of the "no" hitting. There’s not a large enough sample size of games with a total below 40 AND a spread below 3 to draw any firm conclusions there, but both signs are pointing in the same direction.
Pick: 3 Unanswered Scores: No (+110)
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