Action Network's Predictive Analytics team crunched the numbers and came up with six NFL predictions for Week 3.
The data-driven NFL picks include player props (for key players like Derrick Henry), a team total, a long-shot overtime bet and much more.
NFL Predictions Week 3: Expert Data-Driven Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from the Sunday slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific NFL pick.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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  | 4:25 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Billy Ward's Packers vs Titans Best Bet: Packers Offense Has Sneaky Upside
By Billy Ward
The Titans come into this game having allowed 24 points in each of their first two games despite playing the Bears and Jets — two teams that aren't exactly known for lighting up the scoreboard.
Despite that, the Packers' team total is set at just 17.5 against the Titans. A large part of that is based on their quarterback situation, with backup Malik Willis potentially starting again in Week 2.
Still, Matt LaFleur schemed up a respectable game plan for Willis in Week 2, leading to a 16-10 win for the Packers. However, Jordan Love (questionable) got in three limited practices this week, with a real chance to play on Sunday. If he’s able to go, 17.5 feels like way too low of a line.
Thus, we end up with a bet that’s about right based on Willis starting, but a significant value if Love suits up. On top of that, not knowing which QB to prepare for makes things tough for the Titans, giving this another slight boost.
Pick: Packers Team Total Over 17.5 (-108)
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Billy Ward's Texans vs Vikings Best Bet: Major Shootout Potential
By Billy Ward
With all of the high totals on the slate, this one somehow feels like a longer shot than the +1000 we hit on the Saints and Cowboys last week.
However, there’s a lot to like. The chalk is once again a Lions game. We’ve had success fading them twice now, and the logic remains applicable. Detroit wants to be a grind-it-out offense on the ground first and foremost.
That means Detroit is unlikely to create huge scores on its own, instead relying on the opponent to push the pace. Arizona could certainly do that, but Detroit’s defense has been much improved this season.
On the flip side, both the Vikings and Texans are fundamentally pass-first offenses. Minnesota hasn’t shown it yet due to game script, but at its best Sam Darnold is airing it out to Justin Jefferson.
On the other side, the Texans have C.J. Stroud, a trio of strong receiver options and potentially both of their top running backs hurt. That should lead to a pass-heavy game script on their side as well.
That gives this game a much higher range of outcomes than Lions-Cardinals, though I’m still a bit concerned about Saints-Eagles and Cowboys-Ravens.
The latter game is in the late window though, so we’ll at least have a hedging opportunity if our bet is alive after the first round of games.
Pick: Highest Scoring Game (+900)
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Nick Giffen's Texans vs Vikings Best Bet: Long-Shot OT Value
By Nick Giffen
This game stands out in my model as the best OT value on the slate with a 7.1% chance of going to overtime. That makes around +1310 as fair value on this bet.
There are two excellent kickers in this game, with Houston’s Ka’imi Fairbairn arguably the best kicker in the NFL right now, and sixth-round rookie Will Reichard not having missed a kick all year.
The teams have combined for just one 2-point conversion attempt all year, and it was actually by Houston in an attempt to put the game back onto a key number of 7.
This game has a solid chance of remaining on key numbers in a game where both teams have shown a capability of moving the ball with a close spread.
That’s the perfect OT recipe.
Pick: Will There Be Overtime? Yes (+1500)
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Billy Ward's Chargers vs Steelers Best Bet: Two Uninspiring Offenses
By Billy Ward
The Steelers beat us on this prop last week despite scoring just three total times in their game against the Broncos. Unfortunately, all of those were consecutive, before Denver added two late field goals.
Now the Steelers face a much tougher defense with the Chargers, who’ve allowed just 13 points through two games this season. They played the Panthers and Raiders in those games, but how much better is Pittsburgh offensively than those teams?
The over/under of 36 in this game seems awfully optimistic considering these teams have combined to allow just 14.5 points per contest. I’ll be betting the under as well, but getting this prop at plus-money is an even better way to approach things.
Pick: Either Team to Score 3 Unanswered Times — No (+115)
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Billy Ward's Ravens vs Cowboys Best Bet: Long Live King Henry
By Billy Ward
Henry has played just under 50% of the Ravens' snaps this season, but he has still managed to find the end zone in both games. Those were both losses for the Ravens, who are slight favorites as they travel to Dallas to take on the Cowboys.
If they’re able to play from ahead, King Henry should be more involved — especially against a terrible Cowboys run defense that allowed three rushing touchdowns to Alvin Kamara in Week 2, and one to Jerome Ford in Week 1.
Our projections have the fair odds of a Henry TD around -120, but I’m somewhat higher on his chances.
I like the two touchdowns prop here as well at +500, because one touchdown from Henry correlates to the Ravens having a lead – which means even more carries for Henry.
I’m betting .75 units on the anytime line, with a .25 unit sprinkle on the 2+ prop.
Pick: Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown (-115); 2+ TDs (+500)
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Nick Giffen's Lions vs Cardinals Best Bet: Value on This FG Prop
By Nick Giffen
The Lions have been the second-most unlucky offense in the NFL this season. That has resulted in five field-goal attempts for the Lions in the first two games despite their aggressiveness on fourth down — they had the highest go-for-it rate in the NFL last year, and the second highest this year.
However, this is the get-right week for Detroit’s offense as it faces one of the worst — and luckiest defenses — in the NFL in the Cardinals.
Arizona has allowed an average Expected Score of 34.6 points against through two games, but have only given up an average of 22 actual points per game.
Look for the Lions to find the end zone more frequently in this one. If they do attempt field goals, Bates has been perfect, but he also hasn’t attempted anything beyond 35 yards. There’s definitely room for regression in his field-goal percentage as well.
I’m projecting he stays under 1.5 field goals made just shy of 60% of the time.
Pick: Jake Bates Under 1.5 Field Goals Made (+100)
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