Action Network's Predictive Analytics team crunched the numbers and came up with seven NFL predictions for Week 4.
The data-driven NFL picks include player props for Saquon Barkley, Kyren Williams, Terry McLaurin and more.
NFL Predictions Week 4 : Expert Data-Driven Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL Predictive Analytics staff is targeting in Week 4, including Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 1 p.m. | |
| 1 p.m. | |
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 4:05 p.m. | |
  | 8:20 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. (Monday) | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Billy Ward's Eagles vs Buccaneers Best Bet: Barkley the Bet in ATD Market
By Billy Ward
Saquon Barkley is seeing an expanded role in the Eagles offense thanks to the loss of the team’s top wide receivers (De'Vonta Smith and AJ Brown). The skill-position players for Philly right now boil down to Barkley and tight end Dallas Goedert, with the running back far likelier to find the end zone.
There was some concern this year among fantasy circles that Barkley wouldn’t score often thanks to the “tush push” and Jalen Hurts potentially vulturing goal-line work. That hasn’t been the case so far, with Hurts scoring just one rushing touchdown to Barkley’s four.
Barkley is also a talented receiver out of the backfield, which further increases his equity given the state of the Eagles wide receiver room.
Picks: Saquon Barkley Anytime TD (-135; 0.7 units); 2+ TDs (+500; 0.3 units)
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Billy Ward's Rams vs Bears Best Bet: LA Should Feed Kyren Williams
By Billy Ward
For some reason, DraftKings has over 99.5 rushing + receiving for Kyren Williams at -115, but 100+ at -105. Unless I’m missing something, that’s the same bet, so I’m thrilled to save the ten cents of juice.
With that out of the way, I’m all about Williams this week. We’re showing slight value on both his rushing and receiving overs, and he should be the focal point of a Rams offense that’s missing both Cooper Kupp and Puca Nakua.
By taking the combined prop, we give ourselves an out no matter which way this game goes – he should see more carries if the Rams control the action, but more targets/catches if they fall behind.
In a game with a close spread (three points), I like having that cushion despite the projected edge being slightly smaller than his straight rushing prop.
Pick: Kyren Williams Over 100 Rushing + Receiing Yards (-105)
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Nick Giffen's Rams vs Bears Best Bet: Fade This Kicker
By Nick Giffen
Northeasterly winds of 17 mph are forecasted in the Windy City, which will make kicking conditions tough.
For half the game, the kicking distance will be greatly reduced as winds mostly blow in (with a slight cross-directional component), rendering kicks beyond 40 yards quite difficult.
And even in the other direction with wind at his back, Joshua Karty will still have to deal with that bit of cross-directional component, which could vary at times.
Sean McVay’s offense has gone for it on fourth down at the fourth-highest rate so far in 2024. The Rams may be forced to continue to do so at a high rate, both from the wind as well as from the possibility of playing from behind thanks to missing their top two receivers and multiple offensive linemen.
I’m projecting Karty to stay under 1.5 field goals made closer to 60% of the time.
Pick: Joshua Karty Under 1.5 Field Goals (-115)
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Nick Giffen's Bengals vs Panthers Best Bet: Fireworks in Carolina
By Nick Giffen
This might be the first bet I’ve made on Joe Burrow all season, but after a strong performance against the woeful Commanders, I feel okay backing him against another dreadful defense in the Panthers.
If we look at Expected Scores, this game combines for the second-highest total behind the Cardinals-Commanders game, but that’s despite the Panthers offense putting up an offensive Expected Score of a putrid 21.8 points total in Weeks 1 and 2 with Bryce Young under center.
With Dalton, the Panthers put up an Expected Score of 36.2 against the Raiders.
The Bengals defense likely isn’t much better, ranking 24th in defensive DVOA and allowing the ninth-most points via Expected Score despite playing a poor Patriots offense in Week 1.
Pick: Highest Scoring Game (+600)
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Billy Ward's Commanders vs Cardinals Best Bet: Terry McLaurin Prop Ladder
By Billy Ward
The Terry McLaurin receiving yards ladder I'm playing:
- 50+ Yards -130 (.5u)
- 70+ Yards +186 (.2u)
- 100+ Yards +520 (.2u)
- 125+ Yards +1100 (.1u)
McLaurin has seen his receiving yards increase in each of the three games he’s played with rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, who’s making rapid improvements as a passer in addition to his rushing upside.
Last week, McLaurin finished with 100 yards on six targets against the Bengals. Now, he draws an even better matchup (on paper) against the Cardinals, who are about 5% worse against the pass by DVOA.
McLaurin leads the NFL in air yards share, with a whopping 56.4% rate. That means he only needs a few catches to go over the higher totals on this ladder.
This prop also serves as something of a hedge against my highest-scoring game prop, since this game going over probably means McLaurin tops at least a few of those marks.
Pick: Terry McLaurin Receiving Yards Ladder
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Billy Ward's Bills vs Ravens Best Bet: Points Aplenty in Sunday Night Football?
By Billy Ward
It was tempting to eat the chalk and take the Cardinals/Commanders game at +400, which features a slate-high total of 49. However, the odds aren’t good enough for me, especially when you consider the pace at which these teams play.
When looking at situations where the game is within seven points either way, Arizona and Washington rank 20th and 31st, respectively, in pace of play. Baltimore and Buffalo rank fourth and 25th, respectively.
It adds up to nearly three seconds saved per play in a neutral game script, which was a huge cumulative effect, especially when you consider the slower team on Sunday Night Football also leads the NFL in scoring.
I also love targeting the Bills for this market because they’ll continue to score even when up big. They already have two wins of more than 20 on the season.
While they’re the underdogs here, it gives us a bit of cushion in case this goes off script.
Pick: Highest Scoring Game (+700)
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Nick Giffen's Titans vs Dolphins Best Bet: Value on De'Von Achane
By Nick Giffen
The 2024 NFL season is still only three weeks young, but we’re starting to see some trends around certain teams and defenses.
One of those is around the Titans defense, which can’t stop running backs. The Titans rank 23rd in defensive DVOA against the run and last against RBs in the receiving game.
That should work perfectly for De'Von Achane, who is impactful in both areas.
Tyler Huntley at QB should also help — he's averaging a full yard more than last week’s Dolphins starter, Skylar Thompson, in adjusted net yards per attempt.
I have Achane projected closer to +120 as fair odds to find the end zone.
Pick: De'Von Achane Anytime TD (+145)
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