Action Network's Predictive Analytics team crunched the numbers and came up with six NFL predictions for Week 5.
The data-driven NFL picks include player props for Kyler Murray and Colby Parkinson, as well as plays for Bills vs. Texans and Dolphins vs. Patriots.
NFL Predictions Week 5: Expert Data-Driven Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL Predictive Analytics staff is targeting in Week 5. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 4:05 p.m. | |
| 4:05 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
| 4:25 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Billy Ward's Bills vs Texans Best Bet: Expect Plenty of Points
By Billy Ward
The biggest factor in this pick is the off-market line at FanDuel. DraftKings has this one at +500, while BetMGM has +550. I’d make the true value of this bet closer to those lines than the one offered at FanDuel, which gives us a bit of value.
I like this game for it’s own reasons too, though. Of the five games on Sunday with a total of at least 45 points, this game has the closest spread. We generally want close games, as that increases the likelihood of both teams being aggressive in the late stages, as well as the odds of overtime giving us a few more points.
More importantly, this game features — by far — the best combined offenses of all the Sunday games. The 49ers vs. Cardinals game features one team (Arizona) that was just held to 14 points by a bad Commanders defense, and Rams vs. Packers features Matthew Stafford throwing the ball to a bunch of guys we couldn’t pick out of a lineup until a few weeks ago.
Grab this line at FanDuel while you still can.
Pick: Highest Scoring Game (+700)
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Billy Ward's Dolphins vs Patriots Best Bet: No Ball Security in New England
By Billy Ward
Much has been made about the fumble issues plaguing Rhamondre Stevenson this season. He’s put the ball on the ground in all four games and has lost two of them.
That’s led to speculation that backup Antonio Gibson will get more work in Week 5, with head coach Jerod Mayo quoted in an interview as saying “job security is ball security.”
That’s all well and good, but I came across an interesting stat this week. Since Stevenson entered the league in 2021, only one player has fumbled more (on a per carry basis) than him.
That player? Gibson. There’s not a great option in the Patriots backfield in terms of ball security.
On top of that, the Patriots have one of the worst offensive line matchups of the week, ranking second lowest (among Sunday games) in terms of combined pressure rate (team pressure rate allowed + opponent pressure rate created). That raises the odds of a strip sack being recovered by the Dolphins.
Pick: Patriots to Lose a Fumble (+120)
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Billy Ward's Cardinals vs 49ers Best Bet: Not Enough Volume for Murray
By Billy Ward
The Cardinals are the slate’s biggest underdog and are facing the 49ers, who are favored by seven or 7.5, depending on the book.
Typically, that leads to an increased throwing rate from the trailing team. The problem with that logic for Kyler Murray and the Cardinals is that their defense could struggle to get off the field, which would limit the number of offensive possessions for Arizona.
The 49ers lead the league in time of possession by more than a minute and the gap between San Francisco and second-place Pittsburgh is wider than the gap between the Steelers and the eighth-ranked team.
For that reason, unders on all of the volume stats for Arizona make sense, with the average 49ers opponent running just 55 plays per game. They’d need to throw the ball on 60% of their plays to hit the over, 10% higher than their rate through four weeks.
Pick: Kyler Murray Under 32.5 Pass Attempts (-120)
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Nick Giffen's Cardinals vs 49ers Best Bet: Overtime? Yes, Please
By Nick Giffen
This is the only overtime value game this week per the overtime model, and while it probably doesn’t feel too great, there are a few factors going for it.
The 49ers haven’t gone for a 2-point conversion since 2021, while the Cardinals have proven to be more effective offensively compared to last year — even compared to Kyler Murray’s eight healthy games to close out 2023.
The kickers are also good enough to keep this on key numbers of threes and sevens, with 49ers kicker Jake Moody making 70-of-71 career extra points while Arizona’s Matt Prater has made slightly above the league average on his point after attempts in his three-plus seasons with the team.
If Arizona finds a little bit of luck and keeps this close, overtime is a real possibility.
Pick: Will There Be Overtime? Yes (+1500)
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Nick Giffen's Packers vs Rams Best Bet: Back Parkinson in Anytime TD Market
By Nick Giffen
If you have Bet365, I’m showing solid value on a Colby Parkinson Anytime TD.
While our Action Network Luck Rankings use actual vs. expected win percentage, there’s a second version of luck I’ve been tracking — scoring luck.
By this metric, the Packers are the second-most lucky, while the Rams are the fourth-most unlucky team — a difference of 27 places. That gives them a scoring luck gap of 32.6%, which is the highest scoring luck gap of the week.
The Rams have the highest Luck Team Total of the week, and team total strongly correlates with tight end scoring, more so than any other position.
The matchup is also great. Green Bay ranks 29th in defensive DVOA to tight ends, while allowing the 10th-most targets per game to the position.
Unfortunately, only Bet365 has value on this at +375, but very often lines will drift longer closer to game time, especially at FanDuel. If you can get +320 or longer, I’d take it.
Pick: Colby Parkinson Anytime TD (+375)
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Nick Giffen's Packers vs Rams Best Bet: Fade Narveson
By Nick Giffen
Narveson is coming off a dreadful 0-for-2 performance on field goals against the Vikings in a game the Packers lost by two points.
That may reduce the rookie’s confidence, and may also reduce Matt LaFleur’s confidence in Narveson.
As a result, the Packers could go for it on fourth down at a higher rate than they have been. There should also be room for positive regression when going for it for the Packers. Last year, they went for it 21.8% of the time, but this year, they sit at just 10.3%, which may also be impacted by Malik Willis having started two games.
There should also be room for scoring regression for Green Bay as they’ve come in 10.5 points over their Expected Score, while the Rams have allowed 6.5 points more than expected.
I can envision scenarios in which the Packers go for it at a high rate, then fail to get into the end zone. If they do score, they may go for two a bit more than expected thanks to a lack of confidence in Narveson and the luck element showing the Rams being more likely to cover the three-point spread.
Pick: Brayden Narveson Under 7.5 Kicking Points (-130)
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