Just like last season, every week during the 2024 season, I'll be sharing my three favorite NFL predictions against the spread (ATS) and my betting card for every Sunday slate. For reference, here are my season-long records in this file.
- 2023: 37-17
- 2024: 5-6-1
- Overall: 42-23-1 (64.6%)
For my NFL Week 5 best bets, I'm going with a pick in each time slot on the Sunday slate, starting with the early slate and finishing up in primetime.
Here are my expert NFL predictions and Week 5 picks for Sunday, as well as the latest NFL Week 5 odds.
Stuckey's NFL Predictions Today
- Panthers (+4) at Bears
- Broncos ML (-140) vs. Raiders
- Steelers ML (-130) vs. Cowboys
Pick Against the Spread
First off, I thought the Bears very fortunate last week against a beat up Rams team that found itself in a bad situational spot. LA finished 1-4 in red zone with a negative turnover margin, which cost them the victory despite a net 0.7 yards per play edge.
Chicago is 2-2 on the season with two pretty fraudulent wins over a pair of 1-win teams in the Titans (came back from 17-0 despite not scoring an offensive touchdown) and the aforementioned Rams. Color me not impressed.
Meanwhile, I though the Panthers were a bit unlucky last week against the Bengals in a game where they actually out-gained Cincy 375-373. The Panthers were stopped at the goal line to start the game and gave up a touchdown on the final play of the first half. The Bengals also had a pair of short field touchdowns after a Panthers turnover and failed fake punt.
It's hard to overstate how much better the Carolina offense is with Andy Dalton at the helm. He ranks 7th in Adjusted EPA per Play at .210, which is in a different stratosphere from Stroud, who ranks dead last at -0.5 — an unspeakably bad number that is in Luke Falk territory.
To add even more context, the Panthers have scored 35 points in two first halves with Dalton. With Young, they had scored 28 total over his previous 10 starts.
The rest of the pieces have always been there for this offense. The line has been excellent in pass protection with the lowest pressure rate allowed on drop backs by a wide margin. And there's certainly skill position talent to work with. The Bears have a very good defense, but Dalton should get time in the pocket to move the ball downfield.
On the other side of the ball, the Bears offense has been a major work in progress. They can't run the ball (31st rush success rate) in front of an offensive line that also can't handle the blitz. Both are major keys against Carolina, which has an especially horrid run defense that has continued to lose bodies in the front 7.
Defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero has really upped the blitz rate to generate pressure since the Panthers lack any natural pass rush, which could create more issues for this offensive line that has really struggled in the communication department.
This line is asking rookie Caleb Williams — who leads the NFL in off-target throws by 12 and ranks second-to last in completion percentage on throws of 20-plus yards downfield at 13.6% — and this floundering Bears offense to win by margin. I'm willing to bet against that task.
I'll take the points on the road.
Trending: The Panthers have scored 24+ pts in consecutive games under Dalton after doing that only one other time since 2021.
Moneyline Predictions
Can the Broncos finally get over the hump against their divisional rival after eight straight losses? I think so.
Let's start with just the roster situation for both teams. The Broncos essentially come into this game with a clean bill of health outside of a trio of players on IR:
- LB Nick Singleton
- LB Baron Browning
- RT Mike McGlinchey
It's worth noting that Alex Palczewski has excelled since stepping in at right tackle, only allowing two pressures (and no sacks) across 75 drop backs with an elite pass-blocking efficiency. The rest of the offensive line is also playing pretty well at the moment.
This is a game that Denver should have success moving the ball on the ground, which should make things easier for Bo Nix, who will now get a much easier test after facing the defenses of the Seahawks (at full strength), Steelers, Bucs, and Jets (in weather) in his first four career games. His best performance by far came in a similar situation against the Bucs, who were also dealing with injuries and struggle to stop the run.
The Raiders defense is not uber-talented, but they do excel at taking away explosive passing plays. However, that won't really hinder this Denver offense. Conversely, the Raiders will likely be very shorthanded with the following seven starters not practicing on Thursday:
- DE Maxx Crosby
- LB Divine Deablo
- LB Luke Masterson
- RT Thayer Munford
- RG Dylan Parham
- RB Zamir White
- WR Davante Adams
The other two starting offensive linemen were also limited, and tight end Michael Mayer also didn't practice. It's a messy situation.
I understand the Raiders have two wins on the season over the Ravens and Browns, but they made double-digit comebacks in both thanks to extreme penalty luck on a few game-changing missed calls in addition to some unforced opponent special teams mistakes.
Ultimately, I'm just not sure how the Raiders will move the ball even if the offensive line is somewhat at full strength. They have the least efficient rushing offense in the league, sporting an anemic Success Rate of 25.6%. For reference, the Bears have the second-worst mark at 33.7%.
That means plenty of known passing situations for Gardner Minshew against a legit top-5 Broncos defense that will bring heavy pressure on every down. On the season, Vance Joseph is sending the blitz at the league's highest rate, including top-three frequencies on first, second, third and fourth down. He's sending five or more pass rushers more than any team in the league, while utilizing the highest rates of cover-0 and cover-1 on the back end.
Having Patrick Surtain affords him that luxury, but it's not just Surtain. McMillan and Riley Moss have been outstanding at the other corner spots and Brandon Jones is the league's highest rated safety through four weeks. That spells doom for Minshew, who has historically seen his production dip precipitously under pressure.
Denver also has a major coaching edge in this one, which isn't immaterial. Give me the home Broncos to carry the momentum over from their road trip to get to over .500.
Trending: NFL totals of 37 or less are 32-12-1 (73%) to the under since 2020.
On the surface, this sets up as a classic Mike Tomlin rah-rah spot at home following a loss in primetime (where the Steelers have been cash cows of late) against the Dallas Cowboys. I'd expect the Steelers defense to come out with some extra juice for this one.
More importantly, I like the matchup for Pittsburgh, which I thought got a bit unlucky last week against the Colts, while the Cowboys enjoyed some good fortune in a close win over the Giants, who finished 0-2 in the red zone with a -1 turnover margin. Don't forget how good Daniel Jones looked in that game against a reeling Dallas defense.
Not only are the Cowboys struggling on that end, they are battling key injuries all over on that side of the ball, starting with DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons. They are not only Dallas' top two pass rushers, but they will be sorely missed against the run where Dallas already has major issues, ranking 31st in EPA per rush, rush efficiency, and Line Yards.
That's not ideal against a run-heavy Steelers offense that wants to really spam runs up the gut where the Cowboys have had even bigger problems. Dallas has also allowed way too many explosive runs — an area where Pittsburgh has also thrived in part due to Justin Fields, who has exceeded my expectations to date by a large margin. He seems to have a great command of the Arthur Smith offense, knowing when to use his legs to extend plays and when to take downfield shots to usually George Pickens.
On the season, Fields ranks 11th in EPA+CPOE composite, while Dak Prescott ranks 22nd.
The Steelers aren't totally healthy themselves on offense with injuries in the backfield and along the offensive line. They recently just lost another offensive lineman in James Daniels, who has been a steadying force up front. However, the likely return of Isaac Semualo from injury should help fill that void.
And while it's not a dominant offensive line, center Zach Frazier has made a seamless jump as a rookie at a center, and left tackle Dan Moore Jr. is playing very well for a group that should get a consistent push against this soft Dallas front, especially without Lawrence and Parsons, whose loss can't be overstated. Without those two, this is a bottom of the barrel unit at stop unit, especially when you consider the injuries in the secondary.
Also, keep in mind the Steelers have faced one of the hardest schedules of opposing rush defenses to date with games against the Falcons, Broncos, Chargers, and Colts. This will be a much easier task to implement their ideal game plan of ball-control offense and dominant defense.
On the flip side, the Steelers defense has benefited from that schedule, especially when you consider the fact that Cousins was making his first start following his injury and Justin Herbert (plus both tackles) exited their matchup with an injury. I do think the secondary is a bit more vulnerable than the advanced metrics would indicate so far.
However, it's not like this Dallas offense is firing on all cylinders. The offensive line is really struggling outside of both guard spots and Dak isn't getting any help from the non-existent ground game, which has absolutely no explosiveness — an area the Pittsburgh linebackers have struggled with this season.
That basically leaves two viable paths to offense in throwing to CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson, especially with Brandin Cooks out for this game. Well, opposing defenses know that as well, and the Steelers should have no issues generating pressure — even without Alex Highsmith.
In a hyped up home game, expect the inevitable TJ Watt to make a game-changing play or two. The Steelers also employ a lot of the coverage looks that Dak struggles a bit more with on the back end.
Lastly, Dallas has one of the best weapons in the league in kicker Brandon Aubrey. Well, that advantage isn't as large this week against Pittsburgh, which has Chris Boswell, who now holds the title of the most accurate FG kicker in NFL history. That's definitely worth noting in one of the hardest stadiums in the league to kick field goals in.
Give me the Steelers at home in a fairly decent Tomlin spot, in a matchup where they should be able to run the ball on a beat up defense and create havoc on obvious passing downs against a struggling offensive line.
Trending: Since 2020, the Steelers are 33-12 SU in one-score games — the best mark in the NFL. They have gone 31-14 ATS in those games with have had an average spread of right around a PK.
NFL Odds Sunday
- Jets vs. Vikings Spread: Vikings -2.5
- Dolphins vs. Patriots Spread: Dolphins -1
- Panthers vs. Bears Spread: Bears -4
- Colts vs. Jaguars Spread: Jaguars -3.5
- Bills vs. Texans Spread: Texans -1
- Ravens vs. Bengals Spread: Ravens -2.5
- Browns vs. Commanders Spread: Commanders -3
- Raiders vs. Broncos Spread: Broncos -2.5
- Cardinals vs. 49ers Spread: 49ers -7
- Giants vs. Seahawks Spread: Seahawks -7
- Packers vs. Rams Spread: Packers -3
- Cowboys vs. Steelers Spread: Steelers -2.5
