NFL Predictions Week 6: Data-Driven Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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  | 4:25 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Commanders vs. Falcons
By Nick Giffen
Ridder has been very lucky quarterback in the interception department in his career.
For starters, his 14.7% bad-ball rate (BB%) is fifth-highest amongst qualified QBs, and his turnover-worthy play rate (TWP%) of 5.2% is second-highest amongst qualified QBs. Those alone should translate to between 4.5 and 5.5 interceptions this year, depending on which metric is used.
That makes the three he’s thrown this season between 1.5 and 2.5 interceptions below expected.
He faces a Commanders defense that has been pretty solid at forcing bad plays. Washington has 22 passes defended but just two interceptions, putting them more than two interceptions below expectation. And they’ve done this despite facing around a league-average schedule in terms of opposing QB bad-ball rates.
Unlike last week’s game against the Texans, who struggle in forcing opposing QBs to make bad plays, this week’s matchup should be a tougher test for Ridder.
It seems like the market is overreacting to a very lucky QB going up against an unlucky defense.
I’d bet this down to +140.
Pick: Desmond Ridder Interception (+165)
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Vikings vs. Bears
By Billy Ward
In Week 5, the Bears somehow managed to lose all three of their top running backs in the same game. Khalil Herbert is on IR with a high ankle sprain, Roschon Johnson has a concussion and third-down back Travis Homer has a hamstring strain.
That leaves D’Onta Foreman as the lead back for the Bears. Foreman has been a healthy inactive in four of Chicago's five games this season, but he is a big, bruising back who can handle starting workloads.
The only other active RB on the Bears roster is Darrynton Evans, who was signed following Sunday’s game and profiles as more of a third-down option.
When given a starting role in 2022, Foreman topped 113 rushing yards five times in his nine starts, with a high-water mark of 165. He’ll likely need to top 150 or so to have a shot at leading the slate, but that’s well within his range of outcomes.
The game flow against the Justin Jefferson-less Vikings is unlikely to get out of hand with the Bears just three-point underdogs. Minnesota ranks a middling 14th in adjusted line yards on defense, so it’s not an ideal matchup, but not a poor one either.
Perhaps the biggest factor is the weather in Chicago. The forecast has sustained wind speeds approaching 20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph. On top of that, there’s plenty of pregame rain predicted. All of which makes it far easier to run the ball than throw.
Obviously, this isn’t the likeliest outcome, with a handful of backs all projecting for higher yardage totals. We probably need Foreman to break a long run or two to cash this one, but the odds of that are elevated thanks to the field conditions.
This bet has already picked up some traction after opening at +4500, but I’d take it down to +2500.
If you want another long-shot option to play around with, Chuba Hubbard of the Panthers should see a similarly high share of his team's carries and is +6500. The game flow is a far bigger concern there, but he’s a fun sprinkle as well.
Pick: Most Rushing Yards on Sunday: D'Onta Foreman (+3000)
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Vikings vs. Bears
By Nick Giffen
This game has a Luck Total of -13.1, making it one of the two luck-based games this week.
The first was Denver at Kansas City on Thursday night football, which had a luck total of -13.8. That game was played in 15-20 mph winds with gusts above 30 mph. The final score was 19-8 for a total of 27 points, compared to the 47.5 total at close.
The forecast for Minnesota vs. Chicago: 15-20 mph winds with gusts around 30 mph, with an even lower total (43.5 at the time of writing).
By offensive pass and rush DVOA, Minnesota’s offense is essentially a weaker version of Kansas City’s while Chicago’s defense is a slightly better version of Denver’s, especially against the run.
And Minnesota may run the ball a touch more given that star WR Justin Jefferson is out, plus the potential for blustery winds.
An extremely low-scoring game is definitely within the range of outcomes.
Pick: Lowest Scoring Sunday Game (+1200)
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Saints vs. Texans
By Nick Giffen
Pierce has just 12 targets this year and should be in line for his standard workload, which is why I’m a bit puzzled that this line is so high.
His nine receptions on those 12 targets is hovering right around his career and league average, and he doesn’t face a particularly easy matchup in the pass game.
Sure, the Saints have allowed 24 receptions to opposing RBs this year (tied for 13th most), but that’s come on 36 targets. That 66.7% completion percentage is fifth best in the NFL, a year after coming in eighth in that statistic. Thus the volume bump, but efficiency reduction close to balance each other out.
Pierce’s target numbers have also correlated strongly with the game outcome. In games the Texans lost by double digits, Pierce has averaged 3.5 targets for his career, including 3.0 this year.
In all other games, Pierce averages just 2.5 targets, including 2.0 this year. With the Texans just 1.5-point underdogs, this marks their second-best pregame expectation on the year.
I have this closer to -240 as fair value, so I’m fine betting this down to -200.
Pick: Dameon Pierce Under 2.5 Receptions (-175)
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Saints vs. Texans
By Billy Ward
The edge on these bets is relatively small, with sportsbooks adjusting their pricing down from the glory days of "no" being +175 on every game, regardless of the spread or total.
Still, a small edge beats no edge, and we certainly have one in the Saints-Texans game.
The spread is 1.5, and all games (regardless of the total) with a spread below two have had true odds of +129 for the "no" side of this prop over the past five or so seasons. Obviously, lower totals help the cause as well.
With this one well below average at 42, I’m estimating the true odds somewhere around +115. It’s hard to come up with a firm answer, given the relatively infrequent occurrence of games that match both criteria.
Still, we know both intuitively and empirically that less total scoring means lower chances of either team scoring three in a row.
The only other game I’m somewhat interested in for this prop is Commanders-Falcons. It has an identical total but a spread of 2.5. I probably won’t take that one, though, as I have the fair value nearly identical to the +140 line.
Pick: Either Team to Score 3 Unanswered Times — No (+140)
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Cardinals vs. Rams
By Sean Koerner
Wilson has established himself as the Cardinals' No. 2 receiver in his rookie season. He has six receptions in five games that have cleared this number, and his underlying usage is the ideal blend to beat this specific market.
Wilson's average depth of target has been 13.6 yards down the field, and he has an expected 4.1 yards after the catch, according to NextGenStats. That means he's going to be a threat to go over this total on nearly every reception. I'm in line with the market that he'll get about three receptions here, which gives him three decent shots at clearing this total.
Wilson has also thrived against zone coverage. He's yet to catch a pass against man coverage (19 total pass plays), while his 2.93 yards per route run against zone would rank ninth among qualified wide receivers. The Rams use zone coverage at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL.
I'm projecting Wilson's median closer to 18.5 with a 62% chance to clear this number.
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Cardinals vs. Rams
By Nick Giffen
The odds of +1750 we’re being given at FanDuel is out of line with the frequency of overtimes in games with a similar spread and total.
Since the extra-point rules were changed in 2015, games with a total of 45.5 to 51.5 (within a field goal of the 48.5 total for this game) and a spread where the home team is favored by six-to-eight points (within a point of the seven points the Rams are favored by) have gone to overtime 15 times in 138 occurrences. That’s once every 9.2 games, which would make +820 fair odds if this were truly the long-term average.
Even narrowing the total down to within a point of the 48.5, overtime has occurred in six of 54 games, which is exactly one in nine.
The Cardinals going for two at one of the highest rates in the NFL both this year and last is cause for concern, but these types of games go to OT with such a frequent enough gap to the +1750 odds that I don’t mind a little bit of a negative by one team in the 2-point category.
I have fair odds on this at +1310, so we keep at least a 10% expected ROI down to +1450.
Pick: Will There Be Overtime? Yes (+1750)
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Lions vs. Buccaneers
By Nick Giffen
This game has two of the best extra-point kickers in the NFL over the last three years in Riley Patterson (98.6%) and Chase McLaughlin (98.5%).
The Lions have yet to go for two this year, while the Bucs have twice, but only in situations that made OT more likely.
Normally we want high-powered offenses, but if we are going to have a lower scoring total (42.5), it has historically been more likely to have OT if the home team is an underdog.
Pick: Will There Be Overtime? Yes (+1550)
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