Just like last season, every week during the 2024 season, I'll be sharing my three favorite NFL predictions against the spread (ATS) and my betting card for every Sunday slate. For reference, here are my season-long records.
- 2023: 37-17
- 2024: 6-8-1
- Overall: 43-25-1 (63.2%)
For my NFL Week 6 best bets, I'm rolling with a side in London followed by a pair of home teams in the early slate. Here are my expert NFL predictions and Week 6 picks for Sunday, as well as the latest NFL Week 6 odds.
Stuckey's NFL Predictions
- Jaguars +2.5 vs. Bears
- Titans -2.5 (-115) vs. Colts
- Saints +3.5 (-110) vs. Bucs
Buccaneers vs. Saints: Back New Orleans Without Derek Carr
On the surface, this is not an ideal situational spot for the Saints, who will come into this game on a short week with a quarterback making his first career start against a Bucs team that will benefit from extra rest and preparation time after playing on Thursday night.
However, despite adjusting for all of those factors, I just can't get to this spread. There's a lot of uncertainty with Spencer Rattler, who will fill in for the injured Derek Carr. However, that could work in the Saints' favor. Rattler at least has mobility, which is almost necessary playing behind the current state of a banged-up New Orleans offensive line.
I'm sure new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak will lean into the ground even more than he has this season. His run-first offense could work well against a subpar Bucs rush defense that ranks 29th in Rush EPA.
I was low on the Bucs coming into the season and haven't changed my tune too much. They sit at 3-2 even after an overtime loss in Atlanta, but they were out-gained by more than 200 yards in that divisional defeat. Conversely, the Saints should have won at Atlanta in a game it dominated statistically, but ultimately fell on a last-second field goal after giving up two non-offensive touchdowns. Despite the tougher overall schedule, they could easily be 3-2 or even 4-1.
Getting back to Tampa, take a look at its three victories:
- vs. Washington in Jayden Daniels' first career start
- at Detroit, in a game the Lions just vomited all over themselves in the red zone (out-gained 463-216)
- vs. Philadelphia, which didn't have three of their most important offensive players
Color me unimpressed for a team that also got blown out at home by Bo Nix and the Broncos.
New Orleans still has one of the league's best defenses, led by a cornerback group that can man up against the excellent Tampa Bay receivers, which is always a key handicap when analyzing Bucs games.
After three straight losses, I expect maximum effort from the Saints, especially since everybody knows they need to step up with Carr out of the lineup. I trust the defense to keep Baker in check and the offense to have enough success on the ground to keep the chains moving with the occasional help from Rattler's legs.
Trending: Following three straight losses, underdogs of three or more points have gone 184-130-10 ATS (58.6%), including 71-42-7 ATS (62.8%) when at home.
Colts vs. Titans Prediction: Tennessee Matches Up Well Here
I bet this at Titans +1.5, but I would still play +2.5.
This is my favorite bet on the board, which should be music to the ears of those who have bet on the Colts since I'm 0-3 betting on Tennessee this season.
First off, the spot is pristine with the Titans coming off of a bye, which should benefit them immensely early in the season with all of the new additions during the offseason. The offensive line especially could look much better after working on some of their issues during the bye under the tutelage of one of the best offensive line coaches in the league, Bill Callahan.
Meanwhile, the Colts will hit the road for their second straight road game with a defense that has been on the field at a historic pace. Not only will the Colts be at a rest and preparation disadvantage, but they have many more key injuries.
#Colts have really been hit with the injury but this year. Currently on 10 starters who have had to miss time so far this year:
Richardson (oblique)
Taylor (ankle)
Pittman (back)
Kelly (neck)
Ebukam (Achilles)
Paye (quad)
Buckner (ankle)
Lewis (elbow)
Brents (knee)
Moore (hip)— Stampede Blue (@StampedeBlue) October 10, 2024
The defense has injuries up front and in the secondary, while the offense could be without both top receivers and running backs.
The one player they should definitely get back is quarterback Anthony Richardson, who I'm assuming will start. Well, I think that's a downgrade from Flacco at the moment.
Everybody has talked about how bad Will Levis has been this season — and rightfully so — but Richardson has been just as bad, if not worse. For comparison's sake, let's take a look at EPA+CPOE Composite rankings among 36 quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks:
- Levis +0.055
- Richardson -0.009
Richardson sits barely ahead of only the now-benched Bryce Young — one of only two other quarterbacks (Tyler Huntley) in the negative. (Flacco ranks second in that metric!)
Richardson is inaccurate and has made similarly catastrophic mistakes to Levis'. Yes, he does have a big arm and can hit an explosive play in the blink of an eye, but the Titans have excelled at limiting those and Richardson will have to deal with a shorthanded skill position group.
On the other side of the ball, if Levis does indeed get the start for Tennessee, he'll at least face one of the most basic schemes in the NFL under defensive coordinator Gus Bradley, who also doesn't blitz at a high rate. This version of the Colts also can't generate much pressure, which should be welcome news for Levis, who has crumbled under pressure this season. And if Levis does make an unforgivable mistake (again), I have more confidence that the staff would pull the plug and go to Mason Rudolph after what transpired in Miami.
Regardless of who is under center, the Titans should have success running the ball against a vulnerable Colts' run defense in large part due to a plethora of injuries along the defensive line.
If you account for injuries, where exactly will the Colts be better on Sunday? They have a significantly worse defense across the board.
The Titans get the nod at both running back and wide receiver with Indy's injury situation. The Colts' only edge is probably on offensive line, but center Ryan Kelly and right tackle Braden Smith didn't practice on Friday.
I'll take the better overall roster on Sunday at home following a bye with plus matchups on both sides of the ball. With two erratic quarterbacks, give me the rushing attack with the better matchup and significantly better defense.
Lastly, don't be surprised if the Titans get some turnover luck in this game. They've been one of the unluckiest teams in the league in that department. Yes, Levis' brain dead mistakes have contributed to that, but the defense has also been unlucky.
Trending: Titans defense ranks No. 1 overall in yards allowed per game (243.8), while the Colts rank dead last (419.2). It doesn't happen often, but in meetings between the league's top and bottom defenses in terms of yards allowed, the better defense has gone 17-3 straight up.
NFL London Pick for Jaguars vs. Bears
For this pick, I need Jaguars +1.5. I'm not playing it any lower than that.
The market perceives the Bears as a few points better than the Jaguars, hence the spread that opened the week. However, I disagree with that sentiment.
Yes, Chicago sits at 3-2 on the season, but it could easily be 1-4 just like the Jaguars even with the easiest schedule in the league through the first five weeks of the season The lucky one-in-a-million win over the Titans in Week 1 has been covered ad nauseam. The Bears were also quite fortunate in another home win over a decimated Rams roster in a great situational spot.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars have played a much tougher schedule, especially considering they faced the Dolphins with Tua Tagovailoa in Week 1 in a game they fumbled going into the end zone to take a 17-point lead. They also lost another pair of one-possession games against the Browns (5.9-4.6 edge in terms of yards per play) and Texans after blowing a fourth-quarter lead. Jacksonville is not as bad as its 1-4 record indicates, in my humble opinion.
Caleb Williams has looked better lately, but his past three games have come against three of the worst defenses in the league in Carolina, Los Angeles and Indianapolis. All three units are dealing with injuries, and he's only had one excellent performance in that stretch. He's still just 6-of-26 on passes 20 or more yards down the field this season.
While the Jaguars do have a bottom-of-the-barrel pass defense, they've excelled against the run, ranking seventh in Rush Success Rate. As a result, Chicago likely won't be able to get its ground game going, which has been the under-the-radar key to unlocking the offense over the past two games.
Plus, the Jacksonville edge rushers could cause problems for Williams in known passing downs against a vulnerable offensive line. Jacksonville also utilizes one of the heaviest rates of man coverage in the league, which Williams has struggled a bit more against compared to zone.
The Bears will certainly have the best unit on the field with their defense, but they have undoubtedly benefited from playing the Titans when Will Levis imploded, the Colts with Anthony Richardson (and lost), the Rams with offensive line injuries and without both top wideouts, and the Panthers, who also had injuries at wide receiver and along the offensive line during the game. They have been a bit susceptible to the explosive play, ranking in the bottom 10 against both the pass and run. That's an area the Jacksonville offense (which ranks in the top-10 in both) can exploit with its new-found vertical aerial attack (Lawrence ranks fourth in average Air Yards) and big-play backfield against a Bears defense that has struggled against the run.
Additionally, the Jags will likely receive a boost with the return of tight end Evan Engram from injury. He's been sorely missed and could take advantage of a shorthanded Bears secondary that will be without starting safety Jaquan Brisker and starting nickel Kyler Gordon, as is cornerback Terrell Smith.
Both Jacksonville and Chicago have a couple of comparable data points. They each lost by one score at Houston, but the Jaguars turned in the better overall performance. The Jags beat the better version of the Colts with Joe Flacco, while the Bears lost to Anthony Richardson — albeit on the road.
I don't think there's any material difference between these two teams, so I'll happily take the points with the more reliable quarterback at this point on a team that has much more familiarity playing in these international games.
Trending: While Caleb Williams will be making his sixth career start, Trevor Lawrence will be making his fifth career start overseas, going 3-1 SU/ATS in the previous five, covering by an average of just under six points per game.
