Action Network's Predictive Analytics team crunched the numbers and came up with six NFL predictions for Week 6.
The data-driven NFL picks include Tank Bigsby player props, as well as picks for Lions vs Cowboys and Falcons vs Panthers.
NFL Predictions Week 6: Expert Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 9:30 a.m. | |
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
| 4:25 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Billy Ward's Tank Bigsby Player Prop Pick
By Billy Ward
Tank Bigsby, the Jaguars' “backup” running back, has outcarried Travis Etienne 20-17 over the last two weeks. More importantly, those 20 carries have resulted in 191 yards for Bigsby, compared to just 67 for Etienne.
This week, Jacksonville takes on a Bears run-funnel defense that ranks second in DVOA against the pass, but 30th against the run. They’ve allowed over 120 rushing yards per game on the season, which is more than enough for both Jaguars backs to clear 40 yards.
I’m expecting the workload to continue to shift to Bigsby, as the Jaguars (1-4) fight to keep their season alive. They can’t afford not to reward their stronger players with more opportunities, especially as slight underdogs to Chicago.
With just a one-point spread, the game should be close enough for Jacksonville to continue to run the ball throughout most of this one.
Pick: Tank Bigsby Over 39.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
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Nick Giffen's Commanders vs Ravens Long-Shot Overtime Bet
By Nick Giffen
A week after going into overtime against the Bengals, the model likes the Ravens to go to overtime more than the market does at +1300. Unfortunately, last week the odds were too short to bet on OT for Ravens-Bengals, but thankfully this week the market is being generous.
The Commanders and Ravens have two high-powered offenses (I can’t believe I’m writing that about my Commanders), ranking first and third in offensive DVOA, while neither has established a truly dominant defense.
That means we should see both teams move the ball quite well, which is always a recipe for a better chance at overtime since these teams are able to come down from multiple scores and make up oddball point differences — like 11 and 15 — easier than in games with poor offenses and/or stingy defenses.
In addition, both teams have capable kickers on extra points. So while Justin Tucker has struggled with distance field goals, he’s still been perfect on extra points this year — he has missed just two out of 141 attempts since the start of the 2021 season.
For the Commanders, Austin Seibert has been perfect on 31 extra-point attempts since the start of the 2021 season.
My model has fair value on this closer to +1150, so I’ll throw a quarter unit on an overtime game here as fun semi-hedge to the Luck Under I bet midweek.
Pick: Will There Be Overtime? Yes (+1300)
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Nick Giffen's Blake Grupe Kicker Prop
By Nick Giffen
The Saints are rolling with rookie QB Spencer Rattler in place of the injured Derek Carr in Week 6 as they take on rival Tampa Bay.
The Buccaneers don’t pose a particularly daunting matchup, ranking just 18th in defensive DVOA, including 20th against the pass, so I think the Saints can still move the ball with a backup QB.
That said, I’d expect some drives to stall out, especially given the Saints’ red-zone scoring rate is tops in the league at 76.5%, which is sure to regress in general, and especially with Rattler under center.
Saints head coach Dennis Allen may also be a bit more conservative on fourth downs and regress closer to the 13% rate of going for it on fourth down over his first two years at the helm rather than the 18.5% rate this year.
All that could lead to a bit higher field-goal opportunity for Blake Grupe, who’s had at least 2 FGA in 13 of 22 career games.
Pick: Blake Grupe Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (+105)
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Billy Ward's Lions vs Cowboys Best Bet
By Billy Ward
Earlier this week, I got a message from Action Network producer Gifford Gould, asking me if I thought a bet on the Cowboys to be the first team to score was +EV. He pointed out that Dallas is a far stronger team playing from in front, and have elected to receive the opening kickoff the last two times it won the coin flip.
The standard procedure for most NFL teams is to “defer” the opening kick and get the ball first in the second half. If Dallas is truly committed to electing to receive, it should be almost guaranteed to get the first possession.
I’m not sure that’s necessarily the case here against Dan Campbell and the Lions, but if we make Detroit 50-50 to receive or defer, that’s still a 75% chance that Dallas gets first crack at possession.
While you can get slightly better odds on the Cowboys being the first team to score (+100 at BetMGM), I prefer the first down market. The odds of picking up at least one first down on any given drive are much higher than the odds to score, which removes a ton of variance from the pick.
Theoretically, this would be good to much heavier juice, though if it moves I’d be happy to pivot to the first to score.
Pick: First 1st Down — Cowboys (-110)
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Nick Giffen's Ja'Tavion Sanders Anytime TD Bet
By Nick Giffen
Panthers first-string TE Tommy Tremble is out with a concussion, opening the door up for rookie Ja'Tavion Sanders to get the bulk of the snaps at the position.
While veteran Ian Thomas returns from IR this week, I’d expect his participation to be limited for a multitude of reasons. That leaves Sanders as the primary TE target in this offense.
This is a great spot for a bounce-back game for QB Andy Dalton given he faced the Bears’ tough pass defense in 20 mph wind conditions. Now he faces a Falcons defense that ranks 22nd against the pass while generating the second-lowest pressure rate in the league.
Top wideout Diontae Johnson is questionable with an ankle injury and is likely to be shadowed Falcons CB A.J. Terrell. That should open up the door for Dalton to look elsewhere at a higher rate with his pass attempts.
The TE matchup for Sanders is better than it seems if solely looking at season-long stats where the Falcons rank eighth in defensive DVOA to the position while allowing the sixth-fewest targets.
That’s because Falcons middle linebacker Troy Anderson, who is typically deployed on the strong side, is set to miss his second straight game with a knee injury, and replacement J.D. Bertrand allowed seven catches on eight targets last week on 24 coverage route, according to PFF.
These teams combine for just over 54 minutes of possession on average, so at least one, if not both, teams should have more possession, yielding more scoring opportunity.
The Panthers hold the third-highest Luck Team Total of the week, and from my past research, higher team totals disproportionately benefit TEs.
I like Sanders' chances to get in the end zone and would play this down to +425.
Pick: Ja'Tavion Sanders Anytime TD (+500)
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Billy Ward's Falcons vs Panthers Best Bet: Highest Scoring Game?
By Billy Ward
It’s a fairly binary week in terms of offensive expectations in Week 6, with five games featuring totals of 47.5 or more, and six games with totals of 43 or fewer.
While one of the lower total games could theoretically exceed expectations, it’s fairly unlikely. That narrows the pool of potential shootouts considerably.
Of the higher total games, the one that stands out to me is the NFC South showdown between the Panthers and Falcons.
Atlanta’s passing offense finally broke out last week to the tune of 500+ yards from Kirk Cousins in a 36-30 win, and that was against a reasonably tough Bucs defense (18th in defensive DVOA).
This week, the Falcons face a much softer Panthers unit that ranks 30th on defense. Atlanta should be able to put up points as long as it needs to.
Which brings us to the Panthers. They averaged 30 points per game in the first two games under Andy Dalton, before falling flat last week against the Bears. Chicago has a much tougher defense (seventh) than Atlanta (20th), though. I expect the Panthers to get back to putting up points this week.
Given that the highest total game (Lions-Cowboys) features a favored team (Detroit) that would be more than happy to kill the clock with the running game, the upside is much better here.
Pick: Highest Scoring Game (+800)
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