Our NFL predictions for Week 8 are in.
Our NFL experts are one three underdogs this week, as well as a popular favorite in the Packers. For the late slate, we have one pick that is fading the Panthers offense to get going with Bryce Young under center again.
The Texans and Packers are huge sides for the public this week, although some sharp action has moved the spread in favor of Packers backers. Bets and money are mostly split on Cardinals vs. Dolphins — but not our expert. Finally, bettors are looking for any way to fade with Panthers, with the Broncos getting more than 70% of the bets and money.
NFL Week 8 Predictions
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Colts vs. Texans Prediction
By Simon Hunter
Those of you who have been following my bets in recent years will not be surprised by this pick.
The Colts have historically matched up well with the Texans. Indy is 10-1-1 against the spread (ATS) on the road in Houston since 2013, even covering last year in Anthony Richardson's first NFL start last season. The one ATS loss there was with Matt Ryan starting under center.
The Texans will continue to be without playmaker Nico Collins, while the Colts are going to get Jonathan Taylor back at running back. We've seen Houston struggle against the run already this season, and it won't get any easier with Taylor running behind the third-highest-grade offensive line in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus.
This is also a spot that C.J. Stroud has struggled in at 3-8 ATS as a favorite in the NFL.
The Colts know they need to win this game if they want to win the AFC South. They're one game behind the Texans and lost the first matchup back in Week 1. I'm expecting an ugly, back-and-forth game with the team that has the ball last likely winning.
Don't let Richardson's terrible completion percentage scare you. The Colts are going to live and die by the run game in this one.
This line has come down throughout the week, but I still think it's at least one point too high. I'd bet Indianapolis down to +3.5.
Pick: Colts +5 (-110)
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Ravens vs. Browns Pick Against the Spread
We truly do not know what the Browns will look like with competent quarterback play. That sentence alone makes this a near-auto play for a defense still ranking third in adjusted line yards allowed per rush and third in pass rush win rate. It's remarkable that the defense continues to play this well despite constantly being on the field and knowing its offense will contribute next to nothing.
The Browns offense enters this game last in yards per play and last third-down conversion rate in the NFL. It cannot be overstated how poor Deshaun Watson was playing. The entire team will be refreshed if Jameis Winston has any success early on in this game, and he'll likely be facing a pass defense ranking 30th in the league in yards per attempt. Th Ravens secondary also has four cornerbacks on the injury report, including Marlon Humpfrey, who has already been ruled out.
Lastly, even if the Ravens offense is humming in the first half, their defense has surrendered by far the most passing yards and passing touchdowns in the fourth quarter. Winston has accrued plenty of stats in his career during garbage time, and it wouldn't be surprising if a backdoor cover for the Browns is wide open. With that said, I am expecting a competitive game for all 60 minutes given the potential rejuvenation of the Cleveland offense.
Pick: Browns +8.5 (-110)
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Packers vs. Jaguars NFL Pick
By Sam Farley
This line started at Packers -1 and moved up to -5 at one point last week. Most books are hanging Packers -4, which I'm fine with, but it could move even further.
The Jaguars might have won last week in London, but it was against a truly terrible Patriots team. Jacksonville started so slowly, though, that a good opponent would have been out of sight by halftime. Instead, the Jags were able to get going offensively in the second half for a 16-point win.
The Packers are on a three-game win streak, are getting healthier and are simply better across the field. The Packers rank fifth in offensive DVOA and face a Jaguars defense that's dead last in DVOA.
Pick: Packers -3.5 (-115)
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Cardinals vs. Dolphins Pick
This number has now moved through key numbers, making the Dolphins an even bigger favorite, and I am in disagreement with the line movement.
This is a big ask for Tua Tagovailoa to simply just return the Dolphins offense to the way things were. I would be shocked if the game plan does not make it clear that protecting Tagovailoa and getting him back in the swing of things is the number one priority for Mike McDaniel. The Cardinals defense may be vulnerable down the field, but using a sixth pass blocker or going max protect to ensure Tagovailoa remains upright will make it more difficult for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to create openings for big plays.
McDaniel's game plan may come with a reasonable bit of speculation, but the main reason I like Arizona is that the Dolphins defense is not a stronger unit than the Cardinals defense when adding context.
The last three quarterbacks the Miami defense has faced off against were Mason Rudolph, Jacoby Brissett and Anthony Richardson. Even after that stretch, this defense is 25th in DVOA through six games, while the Cardinals are 26th.
More importantly, Miami is 30th in rush defense in DVOA and has allowed 4.58 yards per carry in comparison to Arizona's 4.46. A heavy dose of James Conner will be a major factor in keeping the chains moving for the Cardinals offense.
As for pass rush, the Dolphins are 25th in adjusted sack rate, while the Cardinals are 22nd. There is a sense the Cardinals defense is the much weaker unit, but the metrics show things are nearly equal.
I am gladly taking the points through the key numbers of 3 and 4 with the quarterback more likely to make plays in this game: Kyler Murray. Here's hoping we get +4.5 on Sunday.
Pick: Cardinals +4 (-110)
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Panthers vs. Broncos Prediction
I just can't see Carolina scoring three times. Bryce Young is back under center, and he'll be facing an elite defense on the road without his top wide receiver. Yeah, good luck.
Denver is allowing 15.1 points per game, the third-best mark in the NFL. The Broncos' schedule has been pretty easy and will get much tougher after this week, but they get one more cupcake matchup.
Carolina ranks in the bottom five in points per game and yards per game, and it has managed 13 points in Young's two starts this season.
Pick: Panthers Team Total Under 14.5 (-110)
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