We're only two weeks into the new NFL season, but already nine 0-2 teams are staring deep into the abyss of a lost season.
Since the NFL expanded to seven playoff teams in each conference in 2020, just two of 32 teams (6.3%) that started the season 0-2 went on to make the postseason. Last year's Texans did it — as predicted at +2500 right here in last year's version of this Week 3 column — along with the 2022 Bengals.
Going back to 1990, only 32 of 279 teams (11.5%) started 0-2 but still made the playoffs, and only three of them went on to win the Super Bowl. And while the extra game in a longer season is more time to rebound, it's also more time for the top teams to stay at the top.
That all sounds pretty ominous for your favorite 0-2 squad, but hey, at least they still have a chance.
The 2018 Texans are the only team since the 2002 realignment and expansion to make the postseason after starting 0-3, and 1992 was the only time in history we saw an 0-4 team (Chargers) make the playoffs.
In other words: It's now or never for these 0-2 teams.
With nine 0-2 squads this season, history's numbers say we likely get one potential comeback pick to make the postseason — if that. So, which team will it be?
Let's go through all nine teams, consider what we've learned so far and the schedule still to come, and try to imagine a playoff scenario. We'll rank them from least to most likely and make a bet decision for each along the way.
Note: Odds listed are the best available for each market between FanDuel, BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars and BetRivers.
Tier IV — Start Making Funeral Arrangements
9. Denver Broncos
- Playoff odds: +1400 (BetRivers)
- Division odds: +10000 (DraftKings)
The Broncos have two one-score losses against the unbeaten Seahawks and Steelers. Those might both be really good defenses, and maybe that will make the tepid Denver offense look a bit less terrible in time.
For now, Bo Nix's numbers are pretty ghastly. So far as a rookie, Nix has gone 13-of-42 (31%) on passes at least five yards down the field, with four interceptions. That seriously limits any upside on this team.
Denver is more bad than terrible, and its style of play keeps games close enough to give at least an aura of competitiveness.
But the Broncos still have road games against the Chiefs, Jets, Bucs, Saints, Ravens, Bengals and Chargers. Plus, they have no real path to a division title with Kansas City in the way.
Verdict: Don't let the "close" losses fool you. Denver is just good enough to not lose ugly.
8. New York Giants
- Playoff odds: +2000 (DraftKings)
- Division odds: +7500 (DraftKings)
The Giants should really be 1-1 after becoming the first team in NFL history to score three touchdowns, allow none and still lose in regulation.
That's what happens when your kicker gets hurt on the opening kickoff and you can't attempt any extra points or a game-winning field goal late.
Unfortunately, that Commanders game was one of the most winnable matchups on the schedule for New York. By preseason expectations, the Giants have faced the softest schedule so far among these 0-2 teams.
The offensive line and secondary are awful, and Daniel Jones looks terrible and may be benched before long. Up next are games against the Browns, Cowboys, Seahawks, Bengals, Eagles and Steelers.
The Giants may have a better shot at 0-8 at this point than they do at a postseason run.
Verdict: Pass. I'd play the Giants at +340 (DraftKings) to finish with the least wins.
7. Carolina Panthers
- Playoff odds: +3000 (DraftKings)
- Division odds: +15000 (DraftKings)
The best thing the Panthers have done all season is finish ahead of two teams on this list.
Everything else about Carolina's season thus far has been an abject disaster.
The defense has been abysmal, and Bryce Young hasn't looked any better than his rookie season. He's played so poorly he got benched Monday for veteran Andy Dalton, a move that could end up being permanent going forward.
Dalton wasn't terrible last time we saw him and could represent something close to league average if things go well, which would be a massive step forward in stability for this offense.
That's still a long ways to go, but Carolina's offensive line has quietly played pretty well, and the Panthers upgraded at receiver this offseason, so this could be a big change.
The Panthers got smoked 47-10 in New Orleans, but that loss looks a little less nasty after the Saints won 44-19 in Dallas this week.
And while Carolina scored only three against the Chargers, L.A. only gave up 10 to the Raiders, too.
What if the Saints are just really good? What if the Chargers' defense is great? Those teams are both 2-0, and we don't know yet, for sure.
Up next for the Panthers are the Raiders, Bengals, Bears, Falcons, Commanders, Broncos, Saints and Giants before the bye week. There's no game on there that's totally unwinnable if this side can improve a touch.
That's still a long ways from the playoffs, but Carolina's 3.5 over/under looks criminally low at this point, well below FTN's projected 5.1 wins.
The NFC South looks much better than expected for now, with all three division opponents getting big upset wins this weekend. But, no matter how bad it looks, +15000 to win the division is still an absurd number just two weeks in, especially with the Dalton change.
It's not gonna happen, but it's not +15000 unlikely either.
Verdict: Panthers Island may not be dead just yet with the Dalton change, and 150-to-1 is just too long in a weird, unpredictable sport with 16 weeks to go. Stranger things have happened — give it a nibble. And even if you don't believe, take a long look at over 3.5 wins, at the very least.
Tier III — Already Far More Buried Than You Think
6. Los Angeles Rams
- Playoff odds: +500 (DraftKings)
- Division odds: +1800 (DraftKings)
On the one hand, the Rams are the only one of these nine teams with two road losses, so they have all their home games to go. They also have a terrific coach-QB combo in Sean McVay and Matt Stafford.
Those two alone will give L.A. a chance in most games.
On the other hand, only one of those guys even gets to play on the field. Football is not a one-man game, and the rest of the Rams' roster is in sorry shape.
The defense already saw a tremendous drain this offseason with the loss of Aaron Donald, Ernest Jones and DC Raheem Morris.
The offense is now down both star receivers — Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp — indefinitely due to injuries.
And a promising offensive line is in shambles. Two starters are out long term, the two starting tackles haven't played together yet and the swing tackle is out, too.
The injuries across the offense leave this unit below average at best, and I rated the defense near the bottom of the league coming into the season.
It's getting late early for the Rams, especially with the 49ers next on the schedule and the terrible history of 0-3 teams.
L.A. also plays the Eagles, Saints, Bills, 49ers and Jets in a five-game stretch around the holiday.
This team is cooked.
Verdict: The Rams were my biggest fade heading into the season, and there's no turning back now.
5. Indianapolis Colts
- Playoff odds: +300 (FanDuel)
- Division odds: +850 (DraftKings)
The Colts really shouldn't have been on this list. Indianapolis caught the first big schedule break of the season when it lucked into a game against Malik Willis at QB instead of MVP contender Jordan Love, making the Colts a favorite and giving them a golden opportunity at a first win.
Instead, Gus Bradley's defense was embarrassed. The Packers clearly didn't believe Anthony Richardson could beat them and simply ran the ball to the tune of 53 carries for 261 yards, almost five yards a carry and over 40 minutes of possession.
That wasn't far from Week 1 against the Texans, another game in which Houston ran all over Indy and nearly doubled the Colts up in time of possession.
The run defense is tenable with Grover Stewart, but it's disastrous without him. And now DeForest Buckner could miss time, too, in front of subpar linebackers and a blah secondary.
The Colts already being 0-1 against the main division threat doesn't help, either. FTN gives the Colts just a 13% chance at the playoffs.
Verdict: Pass. A bad defense and an all-or-nothing home-run offense just isn't a winning formula.
Tier II — The Division Leaves a Path Open
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
- Playoff odds: +305 (BetRivers)
- Division odds: +600 (Caesars)
The Jaguars really should be 2-0. They were a yard away from blowing up the game in Miami before a brutal 14-point swing, and the underlying metrics suggest they were better than Cleveland in Week 2, too.
Jacksonville's defense has played pretty well and has given the team a shot.
Really, the Jaguars shouldn't just be 2-0 — they should be that with a pair of impressive wins against playoff-caliber opponents.
Unfortunately, should only counts for so much, and the actual Jaguars are 0-2 with road games against the Bills and Texans coming up.
Even one big upset still leaves Jacksonville 1-3, and that's before another two-week trip to London before tired, jetlagged games against the Packers, Eagles, Vikings and Lions all before a late bye.
The Jags survived that post-London trip last year, and this looks like a quality team. But Trevor Lawrence hasn't won a game since last Thanksgiving, and Doug Pederson's offense just can't seem to figure itself out.
Verdict: If you believe in Jacksonville, you may be better off playing it game-by-game with the still-inflated futures market pricing — or just go all the way in on the Jags and nibble a Lawrence MVP ticket at +13000 (FanDuel).
3. Tennessee Titans
- Playoff odds: +600 (BetMGM)
- Division odds: +1500 (Caesars)
Call me crazy, but I really think the Titans might be decent.
The offensive line that was worst in the league a year ago is still poor, but it's rapidly improving under Bill Callahan. The new weapons on offense are making plays. And the defense has really come together impressively under new DC Dennard Wilson. Defenders are flying around, playing with attitude and making life difficult on opponents. Brian Callahan has been aggressive and has made +EV decisions.
The Titans are three or four plays away from a shocking 2-0 start.
The main problem is that Will Levis keeps literally giving the game away to the opponent — first with a surrender cobra pick-six in Week 1, then a similarly desperate failed shovel pass fumble in the red zone with a chance to go up 10- or 14-0 on the Jets. Big mistakes can kill a team, but it's worth remembering Levis has made just 11 starts and should improve with reps.
Even with those huge errors, Levis ranks 16th in EPA + CPOE through two games — about league average, and ahead of names like Aaron Rodgers, Stafford, Lawrence and Lamar Jackson.
This division still looks winnable, too. Three of the four teams sit at 0-2, giving the Texans a big head start. But a trip to Minnesota is next for Houston before the Jaguars and Bills, which could easily leave the Texans 3-2 or even 2-3.
The Texans also still have road trips against the Packers, Jets, Cowboys and Chiefs, plus home games against the Lions, Dolphins and Ravens. It's a brutal schedule late, one that will leave the door open.
The Titans, on the other hand, caught the biggest schedule break in the league so far. It appears Tennessee will luck into a home game against Willis this week, a QB this team certainly knows well. After that, it looks like Skylar Thompson. That's a huge break when games against Jordan Love and Tua Tagovailoa would've likely buried this team otherwise.
The Titans also end with three division games, including a home finale against those aforementioned Texans.
Could Tennessee find its footing, get some wins, hang around and end up hosting that game with a shot to steal the division? We've seen that exact scenario play out two seasons in a row with a worst-to-first AFC South division winner.
The Titans need to start closing out these wins, but they have a real path. If Tennessee does steal the division, Callahan could be a great Coach of the Year candidate at +3500 (FanDuel).
Verdict: It won't be easy, but the Titans have a path. They're a great bet to win the AFC South at +1500 (Caesars) in a division with only one real threat. Tennessee has already made big strides on defense and in coaching. If the offense comes together under Levis, too, you'll be glad you remembered the Titans.
Tier I — Is the Super Bowl Dream Already Dead?
2. Cincinnati Bengals
- Playoff odds: -138 (FanDuel)
- Division odds: +200 (DraftKings)
Here we are again with these Bengals, and doesn't it feel like we've seen this movie before?
The Bengals come into every season lately with Super Bowl expectations, but this is the third consecutive 0-2 start for Cincinnati after coming up just short in Kansas City in Week 2.
That near-win seems to have restored books' faith, since the 0-2 Bengals are now better than 50/50 to make the playoffs at -138.
But should they be? The Bengals lost one of the easiest games on their schedule in Week 1 against the Patriots, and though a loss in Kansas City is no shame, it's not a win either.
Cincinnati gets Washington and Carolina up next, so it's pretty easy to see a quick path back to 2-2 and a season reset. Plus, the Bengals still get the Giants, Raiders and Broncos, too.
But are we sure the Bengals are good? The offensive line and run game are disappointing. Joe Burrow clearly isn't 100% and Tee Higgins has yet to play. Zac Taylor hasn't shown an ability to lift this offense creatively despite all its talent, and the defense has been trending down for years and is having trouble stopping the run.
I have six AFC teams clearly power rated ahead of the Bengals, with Cincinnati in a similar talent tier as the Steelers and Chargers — two teams that already have a two-win head start.
The soft upcoming schedule may beckon you to bet on Bengals futures, but any Cincy future is basically treating these next two games as must-wins, meaning you're effectively accepting a built-in -175 parlay these next two games just to keep your bet alive out of the gates.
I'll go the other way. We've seen this movie before, and it doesn't usually end well for the Bengals. I already faded Cincinnati's playoff chances twice at a better number, but +120 to miss still has some value.
Verdict: The Bengals can't keep doing this, and neither can bettors. Cincinnati has dug too big of a hole to be trusted for now, but you may be better off waiting to fade until after these next two easier games.
1. Baltimore Ravens
- Playoff odds: -134 (BetRivers)
- Division odds: +210 (DraftKings)
Like a couple of other teams on this list, the Ravens really ought to be 2-0. Baltimore was an inch and a two-point conversion away from shocking the Chiefs at Arrowhead in the opener, and the Ravens were up double digits on the Raiders before another late collapse.
Instead, Baltimore is halfway to last season's total losses (four) and is already two games behind the Steelers in the division.
It helps that Cincinnati is 0-2, too, but it doesn't exactly get easier for the Ravens with the Cowboys, Bills and Bengals on deck.
The Ravens have a loaded roster. Jackson is the two-time defending MVP and looks slimmer and faster. Derrick Henry is finding his footing as a runner. The defense still has weapons up and down the unit. The coaching staff and special teams rate well.
The Ravens were a Super Bowl favorite for a reason.
But they're also a flawed team, and those flaws have already reared their ugly heads.
The typically elite special teams have cost the team badly in both games. Justin Tucker has two of the NFL's four missed 50+ yard field goals, and a late shanked punt hurt in Week 2, setting the Raiders up for an easy go-ahead score.
The defense has taken a clear step back after a tremendous brain drain. DC Zach Orr needs to prove himself, and the Ravens are short on pass rush and corner play and couldn't get off the field against the lowly Raiders, a troubling statement.
The usually stout offensive line continues to struggle, too, as it adjusts to new bodies and a loss of talent. Todd Monken's offense hasn't shown a consistent ability to move the ball or put points on the board.
The Ravens aren't dead by any stretch, but this team is worse in every phase of the game from last year's squad: offense, defense, special teams and coaching.
Baltimore also just lost maybe its easiest game of the season, and there's always that stretch when Jackson inevitably misses some time.
Baltimore fans don't want to hear it, but the Ravens are more likely to miss the playoffs than make it at this point. It helps that the AFC looks surprisingly more open than expected, and the AFC North is still in play with the fraudulent Steelers in first.
But this is still a real hole for a team with real flaws, a team that could easily lose to the Cowboys, Bills and/or Bengals over the next three weeks.
Even if you like Baltimore, you're better off playing game-to-game right now, and you should be very cautious about investing in MVP or Super Bowl futures.
FTN is still relatively optimistic about the Ravens, giving them a 63% chance at the playoffs, showing slight value on the -134 odds to make it. The edge is slightly better at +210 to win the AFC North.
I can't get there. I think the Ravens are more likely to miss the playoffs than make them at this point, implying slight value on +125 to miss (BetRivers).
Both Baltimore and Cincinnati are already in serious trouble.
Verdict: I'm not ready to leave the Ravens for dead, but I'm absolutely not investing in Baltimore futures right now. I'll play this team week-to-week for now, but Baltimore has built a bigger hole than it seems and is in real jeopardy of missing the postseason altogether.
