The NFL Playoffs have arrived, and we’re treated to a loaded Wild Card weekend featuring several exciting matchups. Rookie quarterbacks Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels make their playoff debuts after impressive regular seasons, while some of the usual suspects are in action, including MVP frontrunners Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen.
I’ll provide early coverage for all six Wild Card games in this article, including sides, totals, and player props. Advanced metrics are courtesy of Fantasy Points Data and FTN, two of the best research tools in the industry. Let’s dive into the matchups.
NFL Predictions: Wild Card Round
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Chargers vs. Texans
C.J. Stroud has the Texans back in the playoffs for the second straight year, but the sophomore slump has hit hard for the former Ohio State quarterback. Stroud finished the regular season ranked just 31st in EPA+CPOE, and the Texans finished the year 31st in early down success rate, ahead of only the Browns, who started four different quarterbacks.
It’s not all Stroud’s fault, as the supporting cast has faltered mightily, especially with injuries to Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell reducing the wide receiver room significantly. The Texans’ offensive line has also been a massive weakness all season, and Stroud has been pressured on 28% of his dropbacks, the second-most among qualified quarterbacks.
The Chargers defense is set up well schematically to contain Stroud — Los Angeles runs two-high coverage at a 58.8% rate, the third-most in the NFL. Stroud has thrown for just eight touchdowns with seven interceptions against two-high coverage. His 6.8 yards per attempt against two high defenses rank 26th, and his passer rating of 84 ranks 31st.
Herbert and defensive coordinator Jesse Minter must have a plan to contain Nico Collins, who they previously coached at Michigan. Collins can take the top off any defense and ranks third among qualified wide receivers with 2.94 yards per route run. However, fifth-round rookies Tarheeb Still and Cam Hart have been revelations for the Chargers, and Still finished the year ranked third among qualified cornerbacks in coverage DVOA.
Offensively, the Chargers will lean on Ladd McConkey, who has had a remarkable rookie season with over 1,100 yards and seven touchdowns. The Texans have lost Jalen Pitre and Jimmie Ward for the year, leaving Myles Bryant to fill in as the starting nickel. Bryant has allowed a 76.9% catch rate in his career and is burnable.
Justin Herbert has had a highly efficient season, and he’s capable of carrying the Chargers offense. However, it’s significant that J.K. Dobbins is back in the fold now. The Chargers ranked 15th in rushing EPA from Week 1-12 with Dobbins active before he hit IR, and they ranked 30th from Week 13-16. Houston has allowed the fourth-highest explosive rush rate, and Dobbins provides a dynamic element on the ground for the offense.
The Texans have a stout pressure unit, ranking first in pass-rush win rate as Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson finished with double-digit sacks. However, the Chargers have an elite offensive tackle duo with Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater. Greg Roman also does an excellent job of mixing in heavy personnel packages that can keep the Texans’ pass rush at bay.
For my money, the Chargers have the better coaching staff and quarterback in this game, and this is a brutal schematic matchup for Stroud, who has struggled against zone-heavy, two-high defenses all year. We may not have the best line value on the road favorite, but I’m backing Jim Harbaugh in this spot.
I also sprinkled the Chargers to win the AFC at 13-1 on Caesars. If the chalk holds in the first round, the Chargers will get the Chiefs in the next round, who they almost beat in Arrowhead last month without McConkey. A 13-1 ticket would be easy to hedge if they make it to the conference championship game.
Verdict: Bet Chargers -2.5
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Steelers vs. Ravens
The Ravens are the most complete team in the NFL. Todd Monken’s scheme has taken full shape in his second year in Baltimore, as his offense finished as the fourth-most efficient since 1978, according to DVOA. Lamar Jackson is playing the best football of his career, leading the NFL in adjusted EPA/play and finishing with 45 total touchdowns.
The last time we saw the Ravens in the postseason, they made the baffling decision to abandon its run game against a vulnerable Chiefs’ run defense. They won’t make the same mistake twice now that Derrick Henry is in the fold, and he’s ready to take on a huge workload. Henry has 20+ rushing attempts in 8/12 Ravens wins this season, including 24 carries in their victory over the Steelers a couple of weeks ago.
It’s essential to monitor the status of Zay Flowers in this game after he suffered a knee injury last week. He’s reportedly day-to-day, although he was seen in the locker room with a minor brace. On the good news front, Justice Hill is expected to return after a concussion kept him out at the end of the season. His third-down pass-catching and pass-protection skill set is vital against Pittsburgh’s pass rush.
Baltimore’s offense has been outstanding all year, but the significant shift has been in its defense. From Week 1-10, the Ravens ranked 30th against the pass in EPA. Since Week 11, they have the top pass defense in the NFL. Marcus Williams was benched, Kyle Hamilton was moved to a deeper coverage role, Ar’Darius Washington’s snaps were increased, and Marlon Humphrey was moved to the slot full-time. It was a comprehensive adjustment spurred by adding Dean Pees as a veteran defensive assistant to the staff.
Meanwhile, as the Ravens’ pass defense is trending up, the Steelers’ passing offense is trending down. Since Week 14, Russell Wilson ranks 31st out of 34 qualified passers in adjusted EPA/play and 32nd in yards per attempt (5.7). Even with George Pickens healthy and back in the fold, it’s tough to envision Pittsburgh consistently moving the ball in this game.
The spread sits at 9.5 points, a lot to lay against Mike Tomlin. However, trends suggest the first-half spread is a good look. Jackson is 59-37-2 ATS (56.2%) in the first half of his career, the best of any quarterback over the last 20 years, while the Steelers are 25-45 ATS in the first half since 2021, the worst mark of any team. They finished 6-11 ATS in the first half this year.
Verdict: Bet Derrick Henry Over 20.5 Rushing Attempts, Lean Ravens 1H -6.5 (monitor Zay Flowers’ status)
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Broncos vs. Bills
After entering the season with a preseason win total of 5.5, Sean Payton’s Broncos ended a decade-long playoff drought under the tremendous leadership of rookie quarterback Bo Nix. Criticized at the time of his draft selection, Nix has proved the doubters wrong with 29 passing touchdowns, the second-most by a rookie in NFL history.
Nix has the opportunity to attack a Bills defense that has been incredibly leaky over the second half of the season. Since Week 9, Buffalo ranks 30th in EPA per pass allowed and 32nd in passing success rate allowed. The Broncos have gone 33 games without a 100-yard rusher, but Payton will have a strong game plan to attack this Buffalo defense through the air. Courtland Sutton registered his first 1,000-yard season since 2019, and Marvin Mims has been a breakout talent in recent weeks.
The Bills should have plenty of offensive success of their own, however. Josh Allen has had an outstanding season with 40 total touchdowns, and the MVP candidate has a schematic advantage in this game. The Broncos play man coverage at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL, and Allen has torched man defense all year. He ranks fourth in EPA per dropback and fifth in DVOA against man coverage with 23 passing touchdowns to four interceptions.
Allen’s legs should be a massive factor in this game, as they always are in the playoffs. He ran for 70+ yards in both playoff games last year, and he’s cleared his 39.5-yard rushing line in seven of ten career postseason games, averaging 56.3 rushing yards per game. The Broncos’ man coverage and blitzing tendencies correlate strongly with quarterback rushing yards.
I’m always wary of making assumptions about Buffalo weather multiple days in advance in January, but so long as the weather cooperates, I like the over in this game. Payton is 4-1 ATS in the playoffs as an underdog, and he’ll have some tricks up his sleeve for a vulnerable Bills pass defense. Allen should get the Bills to 30+ points here, and Nix can do his part to turn this into a shootout.
Verdict: Bet Josh Allen Over 39.5 Rushing Yards, Lean Over 46.5 Points
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Packers vs. Eagles
When the Packers and Eagles met in Week 1 this season, I bet the under in a game turned into a 34-29 shootout. I expected significant defensive improvements for both teams with new coordinators. At the same time, the additions of Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley would lead to a heavier emphasis on the ground game for both offenses. I was dead wrong in that Week 1 game, but we have seen those things play out throughout the season.
Vic Fangio’s Eagles defense is humming now, and Philadelphia ranks first in defensive EPA/play against the run and pass since Week 5. Jordan Love has had some ups and downs in his sophomore season, and he’ll suffer from the absence of Christian Watson in this game, who provides a critical downfield presence as an explosive big-play threat.
The Packers, meanwhile, have steadily improved defensively under Jeff Hafley. Jalen Hurts could have a slow start to this game in his first start a few weeks after being in concussion protocol. Green Bay also runs zone coverage at the second-highest rate (78.3%), and Hurts ranks just 33rd out of 40 qualified quarterbacks in passing DVOA against zone defense.
These teams skew very run-heavy, as the Eagles rank first in rush play rate (55.8%) and the Packers rank third (51.2%). Both defenses are well-equipped to stop the run, ranking top-seven in adjusted defensive line yards and run defense DVOA. They have also allowed bottom-five rates of adjusted yards before contact per attempt.
I expect a cagey start to this game and a feeling-out process for both offenses against two defenses that have massively improved since their matchup earlier this season. With neither quarterback at 100% health and two offenses that want to run the ball, keeping the clock moving, the recipe calls for a first-half under.
Verdict: Bet First Half Under 23.5 Points (-120 FanDuel)
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Commanders vs. Buccaneers
This matchup between the Commanders and Buccaneers features the second and third-most improved offenses in the NFL from a year-over-year EPA/play standpoint. Jayden Daniels has been a rookie revelation for Washington, while Baker Mayfield has had a career year under offensive coordinator Liam Coen, who has become a coveted head coach candidate.
The Commanders will face a Buccaneers defense that has struggled against the pass, ranking 23rd in DVOA. Tampa Bay plays single-high coverage at the sixth-highest rate (59.3%) and Cover 3 at the highest rate (46.7%). Daniels has thrived against both of those coverage types in his rookie season:
Daniels vs. single-high: 8.1 YPA (9th), 16.2% EPA/DB (11th), 16.8% DVOA (8th)
Daniels vs. Cover 3: 10.1 YPA (5th), 40% EPA/DB (2nd), 61.2% DVOA (2nd)
The Buccaneers also have a slew of injuries in the secondary entering this game. Troy Hill, Bryce Hall, and Christian Izien are on IR. Jordan Whitehead’s season is over after an unfortunate car accident. Antoine Winfield Jr., Jamel Dean, and Mike Edwards are all questionable, and Winfield hasn’t played since Week 14.
I fired on Daniels over 21.5 pass completions in this game, a line he’s cleared in 8 of 13 games he’s played in full this year, including seven of his last ten. The Buccaneers have allowed 24.6 completions per game, the most in the NFL, and 10/17 opposing quarterbacks have completed 22+ passes.
Tampa Bay will need its offense to keep humming to win this game, which it’s certainly capable of. According to Mike Sando of the Athletic, the Bucs have the only offense since at least 2000 to meet or exceed the following metrics:
- 28 points per game (28.6 for Tampa Bay)
- 6.0 yards per play (6.2 for Tampa Bay)
- 65% red-zone touchdown rate (66.7% for Tampa Bay)
- 50% third-down conversion rate (50.9% for Tampa Bay)
The Commanders hope to get Marshon Lattimore back in the lineup for this game, which would make for great theater against Mike Evans. We should see rookie wideout Jalen McMillan’s breakout continue in this game after he posted 50+ yards in five straight games to close out the regular season, and his player props are an angle to consider.
My favorite bet on the Bucs side is on standout rookie running back Bucky Irving. The former Oregon Duck has been one of the best big-play threats in the NFL, ranking seventh in explosive rush rate (6.8%) and fourth in yards after contact per attempt (3.02). 55.1% of his carries have come on man/gap scheme runs, and he ranks second in YPC (6.54). The Commanders have allowed the most YPC (5.65) on man/gap scheme runs this year.
Irving is now the full-time back in the offense, and he’s cleared a longest rush of 17+ yards in five of six games with 14+ carries this season. I expect him to rip off another long run on Sunday against a Commanders defense that ranks 31st in second-level yards allowed to running backs.
Verdict: Bet Jayden Daniels Over 21.5 Pass Completions, Bucky Irving Longest Rush Over 16.5 Yards
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Vikings vs. Rams
On Sunday night, the Vikings visited the Lions in what was projected to be a shootout, and Minnesota’s offense never got off the bus. Sam Darnold had arguably his worst game of the season when it mattered most, and the Vikings were held to their third-worst offensive EPA in a game in the Kevin O’Connell era.
The Vikings went 3-16 on third and fourth down and 0-4 in the red zone, logging the single worst red zone success rate in a game over the last five seasons. Credit the Lions and DC Aaron Glenn for their defensive strategy, leaning even further into their man coverage and blitzing tendencies despite the litany of injuries they are dealing with on defense.
The Rams employ a very different defensive strategy than the Vikings, ranking 23rd in man coverage rate (22.9%), and they only played man coverage on 10.3% of dropbacks against Darnold earlier this year. Darnold has generally been much better against man coverage than zone this year, ranking 3rd in EPA per dropback against man and 20th against zone, so I’d be surprised to see them deviate.
Regardless of the defensive strategy the Rams enter this game with, I expect the Vikings to bounce back. The Rams rank just 25th in pass defense DVOA this year, and frankly, that performance on Sunday night simply isn’t repeatable for a well-coached offense. O’Connell will bounce back with a great game plan, and deep shots to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison will be in play against a secondary that ranks 29th in DVOA against the deep ball.
The Rams, meanwhile, should benefit from a week off to reset, as the offense had stagnated in recent weeks. Outside of the scoring bonanza against the Bills, the Rams had posted 21 or fewer points in four of their last five games. However, this is an excellent matchup for Matthew Stafford schematically against Brian Flores’ defense.
The Vikings run zone coverage at the sixth-highest rate (73.7%) and blitz at the highest rate (38.9%). Stafford has cooked zone coverage, ranking 10th in EPA per dropback and seventh in DVOA. He’s also thrived against the blitz this year, ranking fourth in both EPA per dropback and DVOA. It helps massively that the offensive line looks the healthiest it's been all season, with Rob Havenstein expected to suit up.
Sean McVay focused on preparing for the playoffs last week as Mike LaFleur called plays for the first time all season, and I expect some added wrinkles to the Rams’ offense with a healthy trio of Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and Kyren Williams. Rookie kicker Joshua Karty also ended the season with a flourish, making 13 straight field goals, including kicks of 57 and 58 yards against the Seahawks in Week 18.
Playoff games played at indoor stadiums are 35-18 to the over (66%) since 2003, and I expect to see plenty of scoring from both offenses on Monday night. Referee John Hussey is also an NFL-best 11-4 to the over this year, with games averaging 50.6 points. I grabbed the over at 46.5 points, and I’d play this up to 47.5, staying under the key of 48.
Verdict: Bet Over 46.5 Points (play to 47.5)
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