Just because it's the preseason doesn't mean we're not back to betting on the NFL.
Preseason football starts with the Hall of Fame Game on Thursday, so let's get into how I approach betting games in August.
Approaching NFL Preseason Betting
I really have a bottom-up approach because I’m creating the player projections that you can find at FantasyLabs.com and use our models/tools to help you set DFS lineups. I also use these projections to attack my plays on PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy. To make these, though, I’m trying to get a sense of who's going to play and when while also understanding the hypothetical team power rating during that time.
The most important thing in betting on the preseason is the quarterback rotation for the game, and I usually have a pretty good idea of how that will unfold. That’s why I create my QB charts for each game that allow you can see when I estimate each QB will play throughout the game. I also have a sense of which skill players he'll have at his disposal, as well.
By doing this, I can identify certain parts of the game where one team's offense might have a huge edge and attack the spread — or if both offenses would create an over- or under-scoring environment, I would look to bet the total.
This is also why I tend to bet on first-quarter or first-half lines pregame and/or make bets in-game. The idea is that I’m trying to maximize the edge I’m seeing. Taking full-game lines a lot of the time can water down the edge.
Deciphering Playing Time
Obviously, the QB matters the most when it comes to betting on NFL preseason spreads and totals, but it also matters what “unit” they are attached to.
For example, the Bengals could opt to hold Joe Burrow out of a preseason game but start Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. It's then very important whether backup Jake Browning would be under center with the starting offense or the second unit. That will impact his projected stats and how I view the Bengals in terms of betting on the game.
For my plays on PrizePicks and Underdog, it’s important to know how many players from a specific position are even suiting up. There are times when you could have six running backs active for a game, which makes it tough for any one player to see a ton of snaps. There are other instances where only two or three backs are active and you can bank on one — or all of them — to see more snaps than you typically would.
Figuring out that last part, who will play when — and how much — can be hard.
Every situation is different and every coach's language is different, so it takes years of experience to know how to decipher it.
While Rams coach Sean McVay never plays his starters, other coaches are different. Every year there's a week when Andy Reid says he wants Patrick Mahomes and the first-team offense to play the entire first half, but that's never the case and we may see a quarter from Mahomes. Sometimes they just want the starting offense to have a nice TD drive at some point before pulling them.
In those spots, I'd rather just bet on the first quarter, depending on the spread and what the other team is doing — and, of course, if I see value in the bet.
I did that last year taking Chiefs -1.5 1st quarter against the Cardinals. The offense had two drives end in a punt, then on second-and-14 with 7 seconds left, Mahomes threw an 18-yard TD to Justin Watson to go up 7-0 to end the first quarter. That was his last play of the game.
Monitoring News
I usually turn over every rock to get info. Twitter is great, The Athletic is great at laying out what a coach is thinking in terms of playing time, and Pro Football Focus has a ton of good preseason data to go off of that I reference.
We also share information in our Action Network discord, which is good to have for a communal approach to preseason.
It’s a lot of work, and I don’t recommend trying to emulate my approach but everyone should feel free to leverage the time and energy I put into it.
The preseason also has some unique quirks that would never happen in the regular season.
I remember when Matt Gay was kicking for the Rams, he was ruled out before the game. So, McVay said they would attempt 2-point conversions instead. It would be one thing if it was Stafford and the first stringers with that game plan, but if it’s Brett Rypien and the third stringers then it’s another. I either faded the Rams or took the under that game.
