The number in parenthesis is a confidence rating from 1-10.
John Kelly (Browns) –Under 44.5 Rushing Yards (8)
This line is way too high considering Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt might see some action. I also expect Jerome Ford and D’Ernest Johnson to see more work than last week. I’m projecting this closer to 32.5.
Javon Wims (Browns) — Under 24.5 Receiving Yards (9)
Wims had a nice 32-yard reception last week, but he doesn’t have a clear enough path to playing time this week to have a projection this high. I’m projecting him closer to 17.5.
Greg Dortch (Cardinals) — Under 3.5 Receptions (8)
Andre Baccellia might return to the lineup tonight, which will eat into Dortch’s playing time a bit. Plus, I don’t expect the Cardinals to throw for 260 or more yards again this week.
I'm projecting Dortch closer to three receptions.
Gardner Minshew (Eagles) — Under 115.5 Passing Yards (7)
Reid Sinnett is expected to see the most time under center tonight for the Eagles. It’s been bizarre how little rookie Carson Strong has played in the preseason, so I’m guessing they get him a bit more work tonight, as well.
This line is too high considering we may only see Minshew for 1-1 1/2 quarters tonight. I’m projecting him closer to 98.5 yards.
River Cracraft (Dolphins) — Under 22.5 Receiving Yards (8)
This prop seems a bit inflated because I don’t expect the Dolphins to throw for 300 or more again this week, and Cracraft’s playing time is going to be fairly limited. I'm projecting this closer to 17.5.
Matt Ryan (Colts) — Over 70.5 Passing Yards (8)
Matt Ryan is expected to play 1 1/2-2 quarters tonight and Jonathan Taylor won’t be active, which means we should see the Colts be a bit more pass-heavy with the starting unit tonight. Michael Pittman is expected to play for most of the first quarter, which only helps Ryan’s upside tonight.
I’m projecting Ryan closer to 93.5 yards.
Dezmon Patmon (Colts) — Under 2.5 Receptions (8)
With the Colts expected to play their starters for 1-1 1/2 quarters, it’s going to result in less playing time for players like Patmon. This line seems like an overreaction to his outstanding 5/103/1 game last week.
I’m projecting him closer to two receptions tonight.
