The number in parenthesis is a confidence rating from 1-10.
Nate Sudfeld (49ers) — Under 95.5 Passing Yards (8)
Trey Lance is expected to start tonight’s game and could end up seeing 1-1 1/2 quarters of action. The team already knows what it has in Nate Sudfeld, so they may want to give rookie Brock Purdy 1-1 1/2 quarters of action at the end of the game. Therefore, Sudfeld could play anywhere from 1-2 quarters tonight.
Sudfeld’s range of outcomes is anywhere from 65-105 yards. Even in the worst-case scenario, one in which he gets two full quarters of action, he could still fall short of this number.
I’m projecting him closer to 80.5 passing yards tonight.
Willie Snead (49ers) — Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (7)
Snead saw extensive action in his 49ers debut last week, catching all three targets for 25 yards. His playing time could take a hit this week as Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk may play for 1-1 1/2 quarters, which would limit the number of snaps Snead could potentially see tonight.
Snead had a 4.3 average depth of target (aDot) last week, so there is a chance that even if he sees about targets again tonight, he may still be held under this number. I’m projecting him closer to 16.5.
Romeo Doubs (Packers) — Under 3 Receptions (7)
Doubs has been one of the top preseason stars and is a lock to make the 53-man roster. I’m not sure the Packers need to see him play too many more snaps with Jordan Love under center.
Juwann Winfree and Amari Rodgers could potentially be fighting for a roster slot, so I expect those two wide receivers to get a longer look tonight. Plus, second-round rookie Chrisitan Watson could make his debut tonight, which will make the WR room a bit more crowded.
I’m projecting Doubs for 2.3 receptions and 29.5 yards tonight, which means I’m right in line with his yardage prop, but there is some value in locking in under three receptions.
There’s also a bit of game theory involved with this play. I would imagine the Packers play Doubs until he gets two receptions. If he makes two incredible catches early in the game, that should be enough and they may want to protect their potential No. 1 or 2 wideout.
Jeffery Wilson (49ers) — Under 33.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (8)
Wilson is expected to get the start for tonight’s game. All-pro LT Trent Williams will likely suit up as well, giving Wilson the starting o-line to play behind tonight.
However, I can’t imagine he plays for more than 2-3 drives tonight. He’s one of the more experienced backs and is more of a short-yardage specialist who doesn’t see much work in the passing game.
I like getting the extra 11 yards in this market when he will probably only see one target at the most. I’m projecting him closer to 23.5 rushing + receiving yards.
Ramiz Ahmed (49ers) — Under 1.5 FG Made (5)
I think there is some sneaky value on this prop and I like throwing it into a 5-pack. To be clear, it is my least confident play and I will be doing 2-4 pick plays with the other four props.
Ahmed played for the Pittsburgh Maulers in the USFL and led the league in touchbacks, even making a 61-yard field goal. He has a big leg but is an inaccurate kicker. He only made 14-of-22 (64%) field goal attempts and 7-of-10 of his extra-point attempts in the USFL. Ahmed only made 15-of-20 (75%) of his field goal attempts in college (Nevada).
There is a chance he doesn’t even see two field goal attempts and this prop hits. Even if he does get the chance, he has to be one of the worst kickers on an active roster. I give this a 55%-60% chance of hitting.
