Betting on the NFL preseason can offer unique opportunities, but also requires a deep understanding of various factors and nuances. Let's break down how to approach betting the NFL preseason.
Depth Charts & Roster Battles
Depth Charts: They are important, but not just for knowing starters. Understanding which players will get significant playing time, especially in the later stages of the game, can be crucial. Teams often use the preseason to evaluate bubble players, so knowing who’s playing in the second half can give insights into a team's performance.
Roster Battles: Teams are evaluating players for their final roster spots, which means you need to be aware of which players are under the spotlight. Coaches may give more time to rookies and undrafted free agents to see how they perform in game conditions.
Preseason Trends and Historical Data
Opening and Closing Lines: Spreads opening and closing at 3 can be a tell. If a line opens at less than 3 and doesn’t move to 3, it may indicate the team is expected to perform better than the initial line suggests.
'Dogs +2 or Less: Teams that open as underdogs of +2 or less and close shorter than +3 are historically profitable. This could indicate that the market is undervaluing these teams.
Road Teams: Historically, road teams in interconference matchups and road 'dogs that made the playoffs have performed well. This trend suggests that good teams, even on the road, often outperform the spread.
Betting Insights for the 2024 Preseason
Coach Decisions: Keep an eye on coach announcements regarding which players will play. Those announcements can significantly impact performance expectations.
Suspensions and Injuries: Monitor news for any suspensions or injuries that could affect a team's performance. For example, if a team is missing key defensive players, it might affect the over/under.
Sources and Tools for Preseason Betting
- Bet Labs: Great for historical trends and data. This can help identify profitable betting angles based on historical performance.
- The Athletic: Provides in-depth analysis and insider information. This is especially useful during preseason when traditional stats might be less reliable.
- PFF (Pro Football Focus): Valuable for detailed stats and grades, which can help evaluate individual player performances.
Notable Trends and Stats
Over/Under Key Number 37: Historically, games with an over/under line of 37 or less tend to go under. Intraconference games specifically have shown strong trends in this regard.
John Harbaugh’s Ravens have a strong track record in the preseason. Their consistent success might make them a team to consider betting on, especially in early preseason games.
Upcoming Games:
Hall of Fame Game: Houston Texans (+1.5) vs. Chicago Bears. The trend of 'dogs at +2 or less that open inside of 3 can be applied here. If you believe the line and trends are accurate, Houston is worth considering.
General Advice
Stay Updated: Preseason information can change rapidly. Stay on top of news and injury reports.
Watch the Games: Observing how players perform and how teams manage their rosters can give you an edge that raw data might not capture.
Be Cautious: Preseason betting involves a lot of uncertainties. The more informed you are, the better your chances, but always bet responsibly given the inherent risks.
By focusing on these aspects and leveraging trends and data, you can increase your chances of finding value in NFL preseason betting.
