The upstart Denver Broncos will face the Buffalo Bills in the first of three NFL Wild Card games on Sunday.
Which players will impact this matchup? Here are my NFL PrizePicks plays for Broncos vs. Bills on Wild Card Weekend.
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NFL PrizePicks — Broncos vs. Bills
Courtland Sutton MORE Than 63.5 Receiving Yards
As rookie quarterback Bo Nix settled in this season, he uncovered a security blanket in wide receiver Courtland Sutton, who has been the No. 1 option in the Broncos offense, garnering nearly 25% of the team’s targets.
The two have begun to connect over the last 10 games as Sutton has averaged six receptions on nearly nine targets per game. With him racking up 13.3 yards per reception, Sutton has surpassed this total in seven of Denver’s last 10 games.
If the Broncos want to hang around, Nix and Sutton will need to connect. They’ll have a good opportunity to do so as the Bills rank 28th in completion percentage allowed and 18th in yards per pass allowed.
If the oddsmakers are correct, Sutton may also receive additional work. Denver is a sizable underdog and is projected to trail throughout this matchup, which should present more passing opportunities.
Bo Nix MORE Than 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Building on the angle above, Nix will also benefit from the Broncos' potential trailing game script. As discussed above, Nix has blossomed this season and earned much more trust from head coach Sean Payton.
Nix has thrown for at least two touchdown passes in eight of his last 10 games. Yes, some of them came on big plays, but those will be available against the Bills secondary. He’s also been throwing the ball in the red zone more often.
During the season, Nix averaged four red-zone passing attempts per game, but over the last 10 games, his average attempts have risen to 4.8. Again, the Bills are susceptible, as they rank 19th in passing touchdowns allowed.
The Broncos will get on the board in this one, and it’s likely to come via Nix's arm.
Dalton Kincaid LESS Than 16.5 Yards on Longest Reception
Coming into the season, many projected Dalton Kincaid to have a breakout year. He showed plenty of flashes in his rookie season, and with the departure of Stefon Diggs, he was the next in line to soak up those targets.
Well, that didn’t happen entirely.
Kincaid is second on the team in targets, but the Bills have run the ball at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. The reliance on the run game has made Buffalo’s passing attack more efficient, and Kincaid has averaged just 10.9 yards per reception as Josh Allen’s safety valve.
In this role, big plays from Kincaid have been sparse, as he’s gone under this total in eight of 13 games.
With Denver’s secondary being as stout as it is, we may see Buffalo lean even more on the ground game, diminishing Kincaid’s chances to make a big play.
