The upstart Washington Commanders are set to take on the NFC’s No. 1 seed, the Detroit Lions. While the spread clearly shows the gap between these two teams, it also lays out a game script we can capitalize on with our NFL PrizePicks plays.
Let’s take a closer look at three players with value on them in this NFC Divisional Round matchup.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their slip at PrizePicks.
Amon-Ra St. Brown More Than 0.5 Touchdowns
We’re starting off strong by backing Lions’ wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown to find paydirt in this matchup. St. Brown has scored in 11 of Detroit’s 17 games this season and now gets to face a Commanders secondary that ranks 27th in PFF’s coverage grading against wide receivers.
Aside from St. Brown’s consistency and great matchup, his high-value targets make this a great play. He leads the team in red zone targets by a wide margin, garnering nearly 35 percent of them.
Given all of this, the juice is worth the squeeze, and you should build your PrizePicks slip around St. Brown this Saturday.
Tim Patrick More Than 1.5 Receptions
We raved about St. Brown for his consistency, but another wide receiver has quietly carved himself out a role in the Lions passing attack. Tim Patrick is fifth on the Lions in targets and has often been overlooked in multiple wide receiver sets.
While Patrick does not garner the volume to make this angle the safest play, he has been very reliable with the targets he does receive. Patrick has a 75 percent catch rate on an average of 2.8 targets per game.
He’s only played five games this season in which he has seen one or zero targets, meaning he should be involved early when Detroit attacks Washington’s secondary.
Look for Patrick to maximize his involvement in this one.
Jayden Daniels More Than 55.5 Rushing Yards
The spread for this matchup indicates that the Commanders will likely be trailing for the majority of this matchup. That means more passing from Jayden Daniels, leading to more scramble opportunities.
We saw Detroit have success applying pressure to Sam Darnold in Week 18, and we should see a similar plan against the Commanders, who ranked 24th in offensive quarterback sack rate. Daniels will have to run a lot to keep plays alive and make things happen for the offense.
Last week, Daniels ran the ball 13 times, his third-highest mark of the season. While he only racked up 36 yards, he should have more success against a Lions defense that ranks 29th in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks.
