The first half of the NFL's divisional round begins on Saturday with Chiefs-Texans at 4:30 p.m. ET and then Commanders-Lions at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Here are my NFL PrizePicks plays for Divisional Round on Saturday.
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NFL PrizePicks — Divisional Round Saturday
Dalton Schultz MORE Than 36.5 Receiving Yards
I'm taking an "I know better" stance against our projections for Schultz in this matchup. While we show a median of just 28.1 receiving yards, I expect him to finish well above that mark.
Part of that is because of the matchup.
The Chiefs allowed the most yards and second-most receptions to tight ends this season. When the Texans played them earlier this season, Schultz had 45 yards on five catches — it was one of his better games of the season.
The game script should also help. Houston is a big underdog, and it should increase its pass rate.
Since Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell are both out for the year, Schultz might be the second-best option behind Nico Collins in the Texans' passing attack.
Patrick Mahomes LESS Than 20 Fantasy Score
We have Mahomes projected around this number, but I'm not sure he gets there.
It's been a down year for Mahomes statistically since the Chiefs haven't needed him to do much to win games. He put up 20 or more fantasy points just four times in 16 games, and I don't think the playoffs will magically change that. Especially as a huge favorite against a Texans team that ranks third in DVOA against the pass but is unlikely to push the pace with scoring of their own.
Mahomes will have his big moments in the playoffs, but I don't think they happen this week.
Jayden Daniels LESS Than 10.5 Rushing Attempts
Our projections show this as one of the weekend's best value plays with the rookie passer's median projection of 9.2 attempts.
There are a couple of pieces to how we got there.
First, Detroit is one of the best teams in the NFL at keeping the opposing offense off the field. The Lions rank second in time of possession at over 32 minutes per game and they will likely surpass that against a bad Commanders defense. David Montgomery will also be back in action for Detroit.
While the likely game flow here — with Detroit heavily favored — could lead to a slight increase in scrambles for Daniels, odds are Washington calls less designed runs when trailing heavily, especially against a banged-up Lions secondary that's easier to attack through the air.
Plus, this is just a high number based on Daniels's seasonal averages. He's had a mean of just under nine carries per game this season.
Jahmyr Gibbs LESS Than 15.5 Rush Attempts
Gibbs handled at least 18 carries in the last three Lions games — all of which were played without his running mate David Montgomery. With Monty active, Gibbs had 15 or fewer carries in 10 of 13 games.
While Montgomery might not be at full strength, it would also make sense for the Lions to ease up on Gibbs a bit after his heavy workload down the stretch.
Third-string back Craig Reynolds proved capable of picking up some slack as well and he should see the field a bit if the Lions control this game.
While the game is still competitive, this would also make it easier for Detroit to utilize Gibbs more in the passing game. He's a huge weapon out of the backfield in a way that Montgomery and Reynolds can't recreate.
Our projections have slightly better value for Gibbs to go LESS than 84.5 rushing yards, but he could beat that number with a couple of big plays on lower total volume. For that reason, I prefer the attempts.
