The NFL's most recent primetime games featured an absolute banger on Thursday and an entertaining, if sloppy, showdown on Sunday. That means there's pressure on this Monday Night Football matchup to deliver another solid game.
The total is pretty high and this is the healthiest both the Miami Dolphins and Las Angeles Rams have been, so we could get a good one.
It's hard to judge these offenses across the full season because they've been so beat up. I'll be examining Miami's passing game based on the four games with Tua Tagovailoa healthy. I'll be looking at the Rams when both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp have been available. Here are my NFL PrizePicks plays for Monday Night Football.
NFL PrizePicks: Monday Night Football
De'Von Achane More Than 46.5 Receiving Yards
De'Von Achane's role in the passing game has been unparalleled with Tua Tagovailoa healthy. He has 29 targets in Tua's four starts, which is only two behind Tyreek Hill. Achane's 20.4% target share across Weeks 1-2 and Weeks 8-9 is second on the team and well ahead of Jonnu Smith and Jaylen Waddle.
It's not just volume, either. Achane been effective with his targets from Tagovalioa. He's averaged an elite 3.24 yards per route run and posted 50+ receiving yards in all four games. Achane's work has typically come at or behind the line of scrimmage, as he has a -1.4 average depth of target with Tagovailoa. His 253 receiving yards have hilariously come with 264 yards after the catch.
The Rams have limited running backs to the fourth-fewest targets and the ninth-fewest receptions. However, they've allowed the 13th-most receiving yards to RBs. More importantly, Los Angeles is giving up the fourth-most yards after the catch per reception. It should be a matchup Achane can exploit given his ability with the ball in his hands.
Matthew Stafford More Than 34.5 Pass Attempts
The Rams have skewed run-heavy for much of the season, but they've chucked it when Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp have both played. In Weeks 1, 8 and 9, Los Angeles has a hefty 66.3% neutral pass rate. That would rank second in the league for the full season, behind only Cleveland. In the five games without both Nacua and Kupp, the Rams' neutral pass rate has plummeted to 52.6%. That would rank 28th on the season.
Matthew Stafford has averaged 42.3 attempts in the games with both of his top receivers. That number is skewed by a pair of overtime games, but it's clear the Rams lean into the passing game with Nacua and Kupp available.
Miami hasn't given up much passing volume this season, but they also haven't played many competitive games. With Tagovailoa back the past two weeks, the Dolphins have ceded 36 and 39 pass attempts. Both of those games came down to the wire. This matchup has a tight spread, so we should get a back-and-forth contest.
Colby Parkinson Less Than 18.5 Receiving Yards
This might seem a bit counterintuitive following the Stafford pick, but Colby Parkinson is ceding playing time to L.A.'s other tight ends. Parkinson's snap share has ticked down every game since Week 3, and he bottomed out at 42% in Week 9. Davis Allen actually led the position group at 55% against Seattle. Hunter Long was out there for 34% of the snaps, his second-best mark of the season.
Parkinson ran 20 routes in Week 9 and failed to draw a target. Allen ran 21 routes and earned three targets. He had hardly played over the first six weeks of the season due to injuries, but has now played 82 snaps over the past three games. Parkinson has a 4% target share in that stretch.
This is a crowded position room and Parkinson is trending in the wrong direction.
