I floated the idea of jumping on Tampa Bay to win the NFC South prior to last week's Thursday Night Football matchup. Fortunately for all of us, I talked myself out of investing in this division by the end of the intro. Tampa Bay had multiple chances to close out that game and ultimately fumbled it away.
I hit two of my picks last week, but the one miss was a big one. Drake London is obviously going to get there if Kirk Cousins throws it 58 times. Looking back, I probably overemphasized London's downtick in production when facing zone coverage. He still leads the team in usage against those coverage looks, which means there's upside if the passing volume is there.
Let's go for a perfect 3-0 with this week's NFL PrizePicks predictions for Thursday Night Football.
NFL PrizePicks: 49ers vs. Seahawks on Thursday Night Football
Zach Charbonnet
Less Than 14.5 Rushing Yards
This backfield has been split in the past, but Kenneth Walker has been the clear lead option when healthy. Walker missing Weeks 2 and 3, along with a weird game flow in Week 5, has obscured how much he's dominated this backfield. Walker has 37 carries for 202 yards in his healthy games. Charbonnet has 12 carries for 38 yards in those games. In the two games without Walker, Charbonnet racked up 129 yards on 32 carries.
Seattle has also been extremely pass-heavy. They rank second in overall pass rate and fifth in neutral pass rate. There are limited carries available in this offense, and Charbonnet's share of the pie has been small when Walker is healthy.
San Francisco has allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game. They've held running backs to the 9th-fewest yards per carry. The 49ers are favored by 3.5 points. It's a tough spot for a back that might only get two to three carries.
Deebo Samuel
Less Than 55.5 Receiving Yards
San Francisco's passing attack has flipped on its head this season. They have typically focused on short targets and have consistently led the league in YAC, but now they're chucking it downfield. Brock Purdy is 2nd in the league in average depth of target among quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks, behind only Anthony Richardson.
Samuel's aDOT has predictably jumped to a career-high 9.4 yards. His 63% catch rate is the second-worst mark of his career. Samuel is third on the team in target share, and Jauan Jennings isn't far behind.
Seattle has held wide receivers to the sixth-fewest yards per game. They're holding passing attacks to 183 yards per game, seventh-best in the league. It's a tough matchup and Samuel's role hasn't been as valuable this season.
Jordan Mason
More Than 15.5 Fantasy Score
The role for Mason has been tremendous, and it might be increasing. He's dominated the rushing share and is now getting in the mix on the passing side. Mason had two targets in Weeks 1-2, but has seen six targets over the past three weeks. He ran a season-high 25 routes in Week 3 and nearly matched it with 24 routes in Week 5.
Mason is third in snap share and rushing share among running backs, behind only Alvin Kamara and Saquon Barkley. He has 10 more carries than the next-closest RB.
Seattle has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points per game to running backs. They've given up the 10th-highest yards per carry and the ninth-most yards per carry to the position. San Francisco is a decent favorite, so the game script could lean toward Mason. Add in a bump in the receiving game and there are a lot of ways this goes well for Mason.
