This matchup has big shoes to fill after last Monday's banger, but I have high hopes. These defenses stink and the offenses are fairly concentrated.
I'll be leaning into a game script of Cincinnati getting out to a lead and Dallas playing from behind. The Cowboys have won two in a row, so I still expect them to be competitive, especially at home. We could get a shootout here. Here are my Bengals vs. Cowboys PrizePicks plays for Monday Night Football.
NFL PrizePicks: Bengals vs. Cowboys
Jake Ferguson More Than 39.5 Receiving Yards
The consecutive wins have allowed Dallas to lean more on the running game, but I'm expecting that to come to an end tonight. The Cowboys are decent underdogs against a high-powered offense, which should mean good passing volume.
Dallas' tight end usage has been remarkably consistent despite personnel changes. In Dak Prescott's eight starts, the Cowboys averaged 8.5 tight end targets per game. With Cooper Rush, they've remained at 8.5 tight end targets per game. Ferguson has missed the past two games due to a concussion. Luke Schoonmaker and Brevyn Spann-Ford stepped in and maintained the tight end usage, but I'd expect Ferguson to slide back in to a productive role. We've seen him return from injury already this season and not miss a beat. After missing Week 2 with a knee issue, he came back in Week 3 and had his best game of the season (six catches, 11 targets, 95 receiving yards).
Cincinnati is allowing the third-most receptions, fourth-most receiving yards and the 10th-most targets to tight ends. As if the middle of this defense wasn't soft enough already, the Bengals just lost starting linebacker Logan Wilson for the season. The middle of the field should be wide open tonight.
Chase Brown More Than 76.5 Rushing Yards
Dallas has been one of the most generous rushing defenses in the league. They've been especially vulnerable against zone concepts, and opponents have frequently chosen to attack them that way. Dallas has allowed the second-most yards and the seventh-most yards per carry on zone runs. They've seen zone concepts at the fourth-highest rate. They've allowed the most touchdowns in the league on zone runs.
Nearly 60% of Brown's runs have been zone concepts, and he's averaging a robust 4.67 yards per carry. Only eight running backs have a higher YPC on zone runs this season (minimum 50 zone concept carries). Brown is seventh in success rate on zone runs (minimum 50 zone concept carries).
Cincinnati leads the league in neutral pass rate by a significant margin, so it's important Brown dominates playing time and rushing opportunities. Since Zack Moss was lost for the season, Brown has handled 74 of 75 running back rush attempts and has played at least 80% of the snaps in every game. Trade acquisition Khalil Herbert has been a non-factor. Cincinnati coming in as a decent favorite should boost Brown's workload.
Mike Gesicki Less Than 2.5 Receptions
Gesicki bucked the trend of struggling with Tee Higgins last week. He posted five catches on five targets for 53 yards against the Steelers. Coming into that game, he had totaled eight catches, 11 targets and 71 receiving yards in six games with Higgins. Gesicki crushed in the five games Higgins missed (26 catches, 36 targets, 312 receiving yards).
I'm chalking up Gesicki's big Week 13 to the matchup as Pittsburgh allows the fourth-most targets and eighth-most receptions to tight ends. And even in a strong game, Gesicki faced competition from the rest of the tight end room. Tanner Hudson had four targets and Drew Sample saw two looks. Sample actually out-snapped Gesicki against the Steelers.
Dallas has been on the other end of the spectrum for tight ends. The Cowboys allow the second-fewest targets and the third-fewest receptions to the position. Wide receivers have been much more effective against the Cowboys. Someone will likely step up alongside Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase, but it's a better spot for Andrei Iosivas to serve as the No. 3 option in the passing game.
