The NFL season is down to just three games left, with the Conference Championship round this weekend. We kick off with the Commanders at the Eagles at 3:00 p.m. Eastern, followed by Bills-Chiefs at 6:30 p.m.
Here are my NFL PrizePicks plays for the Conference Championship games on Sunday.
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NFL PrizePicks — Conference Championship Sunday
Austin Ekeler MORE than 48.5 Rush+Rec Yards
The Commanders seem to have a lot of trust in their veteran running back, giving him a bit of an expanded role in the playoffs. Our Props Tool has his rushing yardage as one of the better values in this game, but I prefer to cast a wider net and opt for his rushing+receiving yardage line.
That's mostly due to the likely game script here. The Eagles will probably control this game as fairly heavy favorites, which means an increased throw rate and more hurry-up offense from the Commanders.
That's been a role in which Ekeler thrives. He has seven catches for 67 receiving yards across two playoff games (to go with 74 rushing yards). He also caught eight passes for 89 yards in a previous meeting with the Eagles, going well past this line despite only handling two carries.
That means he could hit this mark without any rushing production, but I like leaving that door open in case this game stays closed. His fantasy score line of nine points is also a viable alternative since PrizePicks uses full-PPR scoring.
Saquon Barkley MORE than 21.5 Fantasy Points
One player for whom I'm taking fantasy points as the first option is Barkley. This is simply too low of a line for Saquon, considering his extreme efficiency, heavy usage, and favorable matchup this week.
In two previous games against the Commanders, Barkley topped 30 fantasy points both times. While one of those was a game where quarterback Jalen Hurts exited early — the other wasn't.
He also has at least 25 carries in both playoff games thus far after taking Week 18 off to prepare for the postseason. With next week an off week for the Eagles (win or lose), there's no reason to ease up on Barkley now.
Crucially, Hurts has just one red zone carry in his two games since returning from a concussion and is also dealing with a knee injury. That limits the chances of the "tush push" taking touchdowns away from Barkley.
A safer — but less rewarding — option for Barkley is his 0.5 touchdown line, which is currently an "Angel" pick on PrizePicks, meaning a reduced payout if it hits.
Patrick Mahomes LESS than 36.5 Pass Attempts
I was pretty surprised to see this line set so high, considering how the Chiefs have attempted to win games this year.
While Kansas City has had a fairly high Pass Rate Over Expectation, they've also played on the slower side. That should be their plan this week against the Bills, considering they lost a fairly high-scoring 30-21 contest earlier in the season against Buffalo. Even in that loss, Mahomes attempted just 33 passes.
The Chiefs' easiest path to victory is to keep Josh Allen and the Bills explosive offense off the field, playing methodically on offense and trying to slow down the game.
We're showing a slight edge in our projections (35.5 median pass attempts), but I'm even more bearish than that on the Chiefs throw rate in this one.
James Cook LESS than 14 Rush Attempts
I like this pick because it correlates with the Mahomes selection. The same game script — that is, the Chiefs leading — benefits both selections here, as it would lead to the Chiefs throwing more and Buffalo running more.
Even if Kansas City isn't up big, they could still control the clock with their own ground game and pace, limiting the total number of plays on the Buffalo side.
Crucially, the Bills are underdogs here, and Cook has surpassed 14 rushing attempts just once in a Bills loss. While Buffalo being an underdog doesn't guarantee a loss, it's still a good indicator of how this game is likeliest to play out.
