The bottom dwellers of the NFC East will face off on Thursday Night Football. The Dallas Cowboys' (1-2) defense was torched once again in Week 3 and has now allowed the third-most points this season. The New York Giants (1-2), meanwhile, earned their first win in Week 3, knocking off Cleveland on the road.
This matchup features two of the best young wide receivers in the league. CeeDee Lamb has gotten off to a slow start after an extended offseason holdout, but he remains the most dangerous threat in an extremely pass-heavy offense. Malik Nabers has burst onto the scene with 23 catches for 271 yards on a massive 37 targets to start his career. He leads the league in target share among players who have played in all three games.
Ezekiel Elliott
Less Than 27.5 Rushing Yards
This number was in the low 30s last week and I'm surprised it has hardly budged. Rico Dowdle seems like the favorite to lead the team in opportunities, and now a fourth option is in the mix.
Dowdle led the Dallas RBs in snaps (37), carries (8) and targets (5). Deuce Vaughn subbed in for a few snaps once again, earning two carries. The new wrinkle was Hunter Luepke posting a 38% snap share. The fullback didn't earn a carry but had two targets and doubled Elliott in snaps. That left just three carries for Elliott, which he turned into six yards.
Dallas was playing from behind for the majority of the game, so they only ran the ball 16 times. But there's just so much competition in this backfield right now. Elliott has seen his snaps decline in each of the last two weeks after leading the Dallas RBs in Week 1.
The Giants are vulnerable on the ground and come in as 4.5-point underdogs. It's a solid setup for the Dallas run game. Given the amount of mouths to feed and the current pecking order, it seems unlikely that Elliott is the one to benefit from the matchup.
Malik Nabers
More Than 6 Receptions
I mentioned the incredible volume for Nabers up top, but it really is astounding. For context on his 35.2% target share: Only three wide receiver were above 30% last season (Davante Adams, Keenan Allen, and Tyreek Hill) and none of them were above 32%. Nabers also leads the league in first-read target rate among players who have played in every game. This Dallas defense has allowed the highest first-read target rate.
New York ranks just 18th in pass rate. Dallas is allowing the most rushing yards per game, so it should be a good spot for the Giants' ground game. It'll be crucial for Nabers to continue dominating the opportunities when New York does choose to throw. Fortunately for Nabers, the Giants don't have much talent elsewhere. Wan'Dale Robinson has a solid 21.9% target share, but it's all been short stuff. He has a tiny 4.3 average depth of target while running his routes almost exclusively from the slot. Dallas has allowed the third-lowest rate of slot targets.
After Robinson, no other Giant even has a 10% target share. Darius Slayton is second on the team in routes run, but only has 10 targets. Plus, he's questionable for this game with a thumb injury. Nabers has a great path to maintain his massive role.
Jake Ferguson
More Than 10.5 Fantasy Score
Ferguson surprisingly leads the team in target share so far. He was injured in the third quarter in Week 1 and missed Week 2, but played a good chunk of the snaps (66%) in Week 3. There's definitely room for him to increase that snap share as he continues to recover from the knee injury, as he was regularly near 80% to close 2023. Ferguson is tied for seventh in targets at tight end despite only playing 1.5 games.
Ferguson is due for some touchdown regression. He led all tight ends with 23 red zone targets last season, yet only scored five TDs. He doesn't have a red zone target this season, but Dallas hasn't been there often. The Cowboys are tied for 20th in red zone attempts so far.
Dallas continues to chuck it plenty, ranking third in pass rate. Production should be there for Ferguson given his valuable role.
