We're getting our first two-game Monday Night Football slate of the season, with Jacksonville visiting Buffalo and Washington heading to Cincinnati. The Jaguars and Bengals will look to shake off 0-2 starts, while the Bills and Commanders are trying to extend their winning streaks.
Two-game primetime slates are helpful for PrizePicks, as we have twice as many options for our pick'em plays.
NFL PrizePicks Plays: Monday Night Football
Ja'Marr Chase
More Than 80.5 Receiving Yards
Targeting wide receivers facing Washington has been a profitable strategy for multiple seasons. Malik Nabers destroyed them in Week 2 after Chris Godwin and Mike Evans combined for 144 yards and three touchdowns in Week 1. The Commanders gave up nearly 10 more passing yards per game than any other team in 2023.
Cincinnati has been top five in pass rate each of the last two seasons and it's third this year. It leads the league in neutral pass rate. Ja'Marr Chase has only garnered a 16.9% target share through two weeks, but there were extenuating circumstances in both contests. Chase missed the preseason holding out for a new contract, then battled food poisoning ahead of Week 1. In Week 2, Kansas City's defense bracketed him with double-teams for much of the game.
This should easily be Chase's easiest setup this season. The return of Tee Higgins could also help take some of the attention of off Chase.
Brian Robinson
More Than 53.5 Rushing Yards
This one pairs nicely with Chase. If Washington keeps this one competitive (and I think it will), it benefits the Commanders' running game and the Bengals' passing attack.
Washington brought in Austin Ekeler as a complement to Robinson, and that's all he's been through two games. The snaps are close between the two backs, but there's a disparity in the opportunities. Robinson has earned nearly 75% of the Commanders' running back carries and he's matched Ekeler with seven targets.
Robinson has done a nice job gaining extra yards, ranking 6th in yards after contact per attempt among backs with at least 10 carries. Washington has also blocked well for him. Robinson is in the top 10 in yards before contact per carry, again with that 10-carry minimum. Cincinnati allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game last season and it's right at that mark this year.
Keon Coleman
Less Than 35.5 Receiving Yards
Buffalo is a running team now. It has heavily leaned on the ground game since Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator midway through last season, and it's fifth in rush rate this year. Josh Allen has thrown it just 42 times through two games.
The only way to succeed in a limited passing attack is to dominate targets, and Coleman hasn't done that so far. He does rank second on the team in target share, but he's only at 14.3%. Allen has targeted 10 different players at least twice and five players have target shares of 9.5% or higher. Coleman leads the team in routes, but he's seventh in targets per route run.
There are too many mouths to feed in this offense and the volume isn't there to support any of these pass catchers.
