We're back to the typical Monday Night Football schedule with just a single game. This was shaping into an exciting offensive showdown, but both teams have taken steps back. Offensive line injuries have neutered New Orleans' passing attack, while the absences of key skill position players will hold back the Chiefs. We'll definitely be digging a bit deeper for our pick'em plays on PrizePicks tonight. You won't find any Travis Kelce love here.
We went 2-for-3 on Thursday night, with a massive game from Drake London ruining the perfect card. Let's look to get back on track with my NFL PrizePicks for Xavier Worthy, Justin Watson and Alvin Kamara on Monday Night Football!
NFL PrizePicks Plays: Monday Night Football
Xavier Worthy Less Than 3.5 Receptions
I understand this isn't a fun one. Worthy is one of the fastest wide receivers in the league and has already made some splash plays for the Chiefs. He just hasn't been a target earner, and I'm not expecting Rashee Rice's absence to drastically change Worthy's role. He could have a couple huge catches, so I'm not touching his yardage, but the receptions look like a good way to fade him.
Rice was hurt on Kansas City's fifth play in Week 4, so we got basically an entire game of this offense without him. Worthy posted a 10.3% target share, which tied with Justin Watson for third on the team. That's a weak mark, and it's even worse than where Worthy was at heading into the game (12%).
Patrick Mahomes is last in average depth of target and second-to-last in deep throw rate among quarterbacks with 50 or more dropbacks.
Kansas City has been extremely conservative through the air. Worthy leads the team with a 12.1 average depth of target. No other Chief is above 10. He's going to get a few deep shots, but the volume will be underwhelming.
One last note on Rice vs. Worthy. Rice has been given the "Slant Boy" moniker, but he's actually only run seven slants this season. He's been targeted on all seven routes, turning them into six catches for 100 yards. Worthy has also run seven slants … with no targets.
Justin Watson More Than 25.5 Receiving Yards
Kelce was the obvious beneficiary from the Rice injury in Week 4, but Watson wasn't far behind. He ran a season-high 61.8% of the routes and played a season-high 69% of the snaps. Watson hadn't been above a 48.4% route rate or a 52% snap rate this season. Rice, Kelce and Worthy had been the clear leaders in snaps and routes through three weeks. Watson seemed to replace Rice as a full-time player in Week 4.
Watson earned three targets last week against the Chargers, nearly doubling his season total. He turned those targets into two catches for 27 yards. Watson matched Worthy with a 10.3% target share, behind only Kelce and Noah Gray. It's a small chunk of a small-ish pie, but it puts Watson above other candidates (JuJu Smith-Schuster, Skyy Moore, Mecole Hardman) for increased work.
Watson's downfield profile will leave him susceptible to the same concerns I have for Worthy, though he's been a bit more of an intermediate target. His 9.9 average depth of target is the second-highest on the team, but it's much lower than it was during his first two seasons in Kansas City (20.4 in 2022, 17.9 in 2023).
Alvin Kamara Less Than 104.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards
Kamara has been the focal point of this Saints' offense, but this is an incredibly tough matchup and will easily be Kamara's most difficult test of the season.
Kansas City has held running backs to the third-fewest rushing yards and the second-lowest yards per carry this year. The Chiefs are allowing just three receptions per game to running backs, the fewest in the league.
They've also given up 29 receiving yards per game to the position, which ranks 11th. It's not like the competition has been weak, either. Kansas City has faced Derrick Henry and Bijan Robinson, plus the resurgent J.K. Dobbins and the solid duo of Zack Moss and Chase Brown.
The offensive line injuries have also dinged Kamara's efficiency. After averaging over 5.5 yards per carry over the first two weeks, he's been down at 3.6 over the past two games. Kamara's yards before contact per attempt have collapsed from 3.34 to 1.98 in those splits. Kansas City is holding opponents to the seventh-fewest yards before contact per attempt.
Honorable mention: I just want to shoutout Gray real quick. He snagged all four of his targets in Week 4 and finished with a season-high 40 receiving yards. The problem? He only ran 10 routes. It's hard to imagine his 0.4 targets per route run being sustainable. He's just a guy to watch right now, but I'm intrigued.
