The Houston Texans will travel to Kansas City for the second time in a month to take on the defending Super Bowl Champions, the Kansas City Chiefs. However, this time, it's all on the line in the Divisional round of the NFL Playoffs.
Let’s dive into my top NFL PrizePicks plays for this matchup to see who’s set to make an impact.
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John Metchie III More Than 34.5 Receiving Yards
We reviewed the recent history between these two teams, but one man who was not active in the meeting in December was Texans wide receiver John Metchie. The Texans lost Tank Dell for the year in that earlier matchup, but Metchie looks primed to fill his role as the team’s No. 2 option.
In a winning effort, Metchie racked up eight targets last week against the Los Angeles Chargers. This week, the Texans are sizable underdogs, which points to more passing in a trailing gamescript.
We should see Metchie’s volume increase as the Chiefs make a concerted effort to slow down Nico Collins. With Metchie averaging 9.6 yards per reception, he may only need four catches to get over this mark.
Metchie has had 11 receptions on 20 targets since Dell’s injury, and that uptick in volume is not accurately reflected in this total.
Marquise Brown More Than 42.5 Receiving Yards
Marquise Brown made his 2024 season debut against the Houston Texans and immediately made his presence known. Brown recorded 45 yards on five receptions and was targeted eight times.
The market is projecting Brown as the No. 2 receiving option behind Travis Kelce, as his yardage total is significantly higher than that of DeAndre Hopkins. However, as we’ve seen in the past, Brown has a big play upside, and with his feet wet, we should see more of that this time around.
Brown accounted for 24 percent of the team’s Air Yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and that amount should be the new norm, especially against a Texans secondary that ranks 21st in yards allowed to wide receivers.
Look for Brown to make a big splash and exceed his total.
Travis Kelce More Than 53.5 Receiving Yards
Above, we highlighted the Chiefs’ No. 2 passing option, but Patrick Mahomes’ safety blanket should see plenty of volume in this must-win game. Kelce has been a tremendous playoff performer, and his yards line is too low, even in a tougher matchup.
This season, Kelce has averaged seven receptions on 10 targets. That is plenty of volume for a tight end who has averaged 12.1 yards per reception in his career.
Yes, this season has been a down year in terms of yardage, but the volume is there, and we may see even more from Kelce if this game ends up being tight and the Chiefs need big completions.
